Tamil Nadu polls: Social engineering may tip tight contests

E-PaperSubscribeSubscribeEnjoy unlimited accessSubscribe Now! Get features like Social engineering isn’t something most people would associate with election strategies in a state such as Tamil Nadu, yet , with a week remaining for the elections (on April 23), it is this that may decide whether the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (head of the Secular Progressive Alliance) staves off the challenge from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (head of the National Democratic Alliance in the state). Data point to a consistent pattern in Tamil Nadu: a significant number of constituencies decided by narrow margins, often under 5,000 votes, or roughly 2-3% of votes polled. (PTI)Data point to a consistent pattern in Tamil Nadu: a significant number of constituencies decided by narrow margins, often under 5,000 votes, or roughly 2-3% of votes polled. That means even smaller caste-based parties, with limited but concentrated vote bases, can decisively tilt outcomes. “The 2021 results underscore how narrow Tamil Nadu’s contests can be. 39 constituencies were decided by under 5,000 votes, with margins as low as 137 votes in the T Nagar seat in Chennai, where the DMK’s Karunanithi J won even though in the previous two elections, the AIADMK had won the seat,” said a Chennai based political consultant who asked not to be named. DMK banking on an expansive ‘social coalition’ Chief Minister MK Stalin’s DMK has anchored its campaign in a broad, layered alliance under the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), combining governance messaging with targeted caste outreach. The DMK will contest 164 seats, reinforcing its central position in the alliance. The Indian National Congress, led in the State by K Selvaperunthagai, will contest 28 seats. The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), led by Thol Thirumavalavan, will contest 8 seats, while the Left parties, the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist), will contest 5 seats each. Other allies include the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), founded by actor and former MLA , the late Vijayakanth, which will contest 10 seats, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) with four, and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), with two seats each, alongside smaller partners such as the MJK and SDPI. The seat-sharing negotiations saw visible friction with the Left parties and the Congress pushing for larger shares before settling. CPI(M) State secretary P Shanmugam, who publicly acknowledged his dissatisfaction, said the alliance was finalised with an eye on “defeating the BJP–AIADMK combine.” “Reaching an agreement with one seat less is not satisfactory… but we have to see this in the backdrop of the DMK bringing in several new parties with the sole aim of securing victory.” DMK national spokesperson and advocate, Manuraj S, described the SPA as a “unified front” under Stalin’s leadership. It’s strategy is based on what party leaders describe as an “additive model,” layering smaller caste-based outfits and local influencers over a stable core vote base. “This is not an alliance that was formed in 2025, or 2026. Barring the DMDK which is the latest entrant, everybody else has been consistent partners of the DMK since 2017. This alliance has faced around seven or eight elections consecutively and it has succeeded. So, it is a tried and tested alliance,” Manuraj added. Micro-calibration across regions In northern Tamil Nadu, the VCK plays a dual role. It consolidates Dalit voters and fragments the Vanniyar vote that could otherwise consolidate behind the Pattali Makkal Katchi, part of the AIADMK-led combine. Thol Thirumavalavan’s decision to return to state politics and contest from Kattumannarkoil signals an attempt to convert organisational presence into direct electoral gains. In the south, the DMK has sought to erode the AIADMK’s traditional hold over Thevar voters by inducting key leaders from the community and leveraging splits within Mukkulathor-dominated political networks. The party has fielded former AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam (OPS) from Bodinayakkanur, banking on his personal influence within the Thevar community to reclaim ground in Theni district. OPS’ associates, Manoj Pandian and R Vaithilingam, have been fielded from Alangulam and Orathanadu respectively. Former AIADMK minister P Palaniappan has been accommodated in Pappireddipatti, reflecting the DMK’s willingness to absorb political capital from across the aisle. Such calibrations extend across regions. In Cuddalore, the VCK’s grassroots network strengthens prospects. In western districts such as Erode, tie-ups with Kongu-based outfits aim to reduce earlier deficits. Minority consolidation remains central, with the IUML and MMK anchoring Muslim and Christian voters. “These are the decisions that all alliance partners have agreed upon because they share ideological clarity and a strong bond,” said former Rajya Sabha member and DMK spokesperson TKS Elangovan. According to psephologist Arun Krishnamurthy, DMK’s decision to induct the DMDK into the alliance marks its most striking tactical move. The party, long positioned as an alternative to both Dravidian majors, has aligned with the DMK for the first time. The DMDK secured 10 assembly seats and a Rajya Sabha seat in return, making it the second-largest junior partner after the Congress. Actor Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) has chosen not to contest but will support the DMK-led alliance, adding to the coalition’s broader social appeal. Haasan was elected to the Rajya Sabha in June, 2025. AIADMK’s focus on consolidation and anti-incumbency The AIADMK led by Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) has adopted a similar approach, consolidating dominant caste blocs , and hopes to leverage the anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling DMK. The AIADMK will contest 178 seats. The BJP will contest 27 seats. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) led by Anbumani Ramadoss will contest 18 seats, while the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), led by TTV Dhinakaran, will contest 11 seats. In western Tamil Nadu, EPS’s Gounder base remains the alliance’s backbone, particularly in constituencies such as Edappadi and Salem (West). In the north, the PMK aims to consolidate the Vanniyar vote across districts such as Dharmapuri and Villupuram. In the south, the AIADMK continues to rely on Thevar support, despite internal fractures in the community involving O. Panneerselvam and others. “The BJP adds a distinct organisational layer. It does the AIADMK more good than the Congress could do to the DMK,” said Krishnamurthy. While contesting a limited number of seats, it brings cadre mobilisation and appeal among sections of urban and upper-caste voters, he said. On the ground, several local leaders and analysts too suggested that this organisational push could prove more consequential than the Congress’s contribution to the DMK alliance. Across both alliances, the real battle lies in an estimated 50 to 60 constituencies where victory margins in the past have remained narrow. These include belts in “northern Tamil Nadu, the western Kongu region,” and parts of the south where caste configurations remain fluid and multi-cornered, analysts say. “In these seats, smaller parties function as vote-transfer mechanisms rather than standalone contenders. Their effectiveness depends on whether caste groups vote cohesively for alliance candidates,” Krishnamurthy said. Electoral data underlines how narrow the gap remains. According to the election commission data, in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK secured about 20.46% of the vote and the BJP about 11.24%, both contesting separately. The DMK-led INDIA alliance’s overall vote share was estimated at around 46-47%. Actor Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) adds an element of unpredictability. The party lacks a defined caste base but has drawn attention among younger voters and first-time electors. It could disrupt carefully assembled caste equations in closely contested seats. Both the DMK and the BJP however, have maintained that Vijay’s popularity might remain restricted to his film fans and that it will not translate into votes. Ayesha Arvind is a Senior Assistant Editor, specialising in legal and judicial reportage. She tracks high courts and tribunals, bringing key legal developments and their broader impact to the forefront.Read More