Should Crystal Palace be prioritising the Conference League?

Palace's team celebrate after reaching the Conference League semi-finals Gabriele Maltinti/Getty Images Share articleOliver Glasner has been consistent with his messaging: Crystal Palace go into every game with the intention of winning. That is true in both the Premier League and the Conference League. The rhetoric is admirable and Glasner has stuck to it throughout his time as Palace manager, backed up in most cases by his team selection. Now he faces a dilemma, albeit one he will welcome. In theory, Palace have two possible routes to European football next season. The most obvious is via the Conference League. They are considered to be in with an excellent chance of winning the competition which would, in turn, grant them entry into the Europa League next season. But, failing that, there is a potential route via their league position. It would have been unthinkable in January when concerns were lingering over whether they would even avoid relegation, but after improved form and with the middle of table so congested, they have an opportunity. A goalless draw with West Ham United on Monday night has made that more difficult. But with six games remaining they are seven points behind sixth-placed Brighton & Hove Albion with games against Bournemouth (9th), Brentford (8th) and Everton (10th) to come. Win their two games in hand on Brighton — albeit one of them against Manchester City — and they would be a point behind Brighton and a point ahead of seventh-placed Chelsea. Opta’s prediction model rates the likelihood of Palace securing a securing a finish higher than 10th at 7.4 per cent and Europa League qualification at just 0.39 per cent but there are still reasons to believe it is possible to secure European football via the league, with the uncertainty over where the European spots will sit at the end of the season a factor in that low prediction and an assumption is made that it will take a sixth-placed finish, which is very unlikely for Palace. With that in mind, should Palace actively prioritise the Conference and potentially risk dropping off in the league, or simply focus on the next game? Given that this is, realistically their best opportunity to qualify with a maximum of three remaining fixtures, it would make sense. Opta rate the likelihood of winning the trophy at 47 per cent, with Strasbourg at 30 per cent. Palace have felt the effects of losing important players over the season, especially between December and February. Defensively they should be able to cope without one of Maxence Lacroix or Chris Richards, but take Ismaila Sarr and his 17 goals out of the attack, combined with the unavailability of Evann Guessand due to a knee injury, and they look far less likely to score. An injury to him would be a brutal blow, and the same is true of Adam Wharton or Daichi Kamada. To play every game in the league would naturally heighten the risk of losing players to injury, particularly a runner like Sarr. With such a slim likelihood of finishing in a European spot compared to winning the Conference League, it may be worth resting him either side of the semi-final tie. Palace’s final six games may take in Bournemouth, Brentford and Everton, but they also face Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal. The latter two in a tight title race will be extremely tough opponents.  There are only three games at most left in the Conference League and a gap of nearly a month between the semi-final and final, should Palace make it to Leipzig. The demands of those should not make too much difference to the players’ ability to complete 90 minutes in the league and they have become accustomed to three games a season throughout the campaign. Not least because they have not long come off the March international break which also afforded them a full week to rest without an FA Cup tie. Palace’s end of season form should not be discounted, going unbeaten in their last eight matches last season and the last seven a year earlier, winning six of those games. Under Glasner they are at their best when they have momentum. Taking it game-by-game and still picking up results will give the players and supporters greater confidence irrespective of where it leaves them in the table, which should in turn help with their tie against Shakhtar Donetsk and in any possible final. There is no guarantee of success in the Conference League, even if the likelihood is significantly greater, at 47 per cent, than qualifying for Europe through the league. Europa League, or even Conference League football would be huge for Palace and to potentially discount the route via the league, where even as low as eighth place could qualify, when wins over those teams around them would almost guarantee qualification seems unnecessary.  Financially the not-insignificant benefit of finishing higher in the league in any case is also something to bear in mind.  It may not even be possible for Palace to actively prioritise one over the other. Glasner highlighted in his press conference after the West Ham draw that his team has played 51 games in all competitions this season. That is quite a strain and the decision to rest Sarr and Kamada suggested the priority was more on Europe, although Richards had said otherwise previously. “The gaffer had a conversation with us about if we wanted to focus on one or the other,” the central defender told the Premier League earlier in April. “We all agreed that we wanted to go for both. “We have a second leg (against Fiorentina) and then hopefully a semi-final afterwards. But again, we also want to climb up the table. “We want to give our best performance every time we step out on the pitch. That's exactly what we're going to do.” Those comments do suggest that Glasner and his squad intend to be pragmatic. The manager has said on many occasions that he pays little attention to the table and goes into every game looking to win regardless, he said so again before the second leg against Fiorentina despite their three-goal advantage from Selhurst Park. Palace have not had the same fluidity as in the last two seasons, particularly in attack despite Sarr's outstanding season, but their ability to grind out results of late should give them reason to believe they can yet compete in both competitions without sacrificing one over the other. Glasner may discount his side’s favourites tag based on their inexperience in Europe but his personal experience of winning the Europa League in 2022 with Eintracht Frankfurt is invaluable. Many will, understandably, want the focus to be on the Conference League but despite the low probability Palace may yet find themselves in the hunt for European qualification on two fronts. Glasner has shifted the club's mentality to believing that better is possible, so to discount their route via the Premier League would be to revert back to the old way of thinking.  Self-belief, experience, confidence and above all else, momentum, will determine whether Palace can make it into Europe through one or both routes.  Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms