Reform's election leg up for Swinney as Farage's party set to split unionist vote

By MICHAEL BLACKLEY, SCOTTISH POLITICAL EDITOR Published: 22:12, 20 April 2026 | Updated: 22:27, 20 April 2026 Support for Reform is handing the SNP a huge boost in what is the most ‘fragmented’ election since devolution, pollsters have claimed. Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, said there is still a ‘high degree of uncertainty’ about next month’s Holyrood election and that pro-Union tactical voting could yet play a key role. It follows the latest detailed survey from the polling firm which indicated that the SNP and Greens are on course to fall narrowly short of a pro-independence majority. Lord Malcolm Offord, Scottish leader of Reform UK, which was second place in the poll, was yesterday accused of arrogance when he jumped on the poll findings to demand that other pro-Union parties declare whether they would back a Reform-led government ‘or stick with failure under the SNP’. Full results of the poll published today show the SNP on 33 per cent on the constituency vote, with Reform on 21 per cent, Labour 18 per cent, the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives both on 12 per cent, and the Greens one per cent (other 2 per cent). On the regional list vote, the SNP is on 29 per cent, Reform 19 per cent, Labour 16 per cent, Lib Dems and Tories 12 per cent, and Greens 10 per cent. (other 3 per cent) Mr Tryl said: ‘Holyrood has traditionally been more fragmented than Westminster but actually it looks like this is on course, with the rise of Reform UK but also the Scottish Greens performing better, to be an even more fragmented election, with the effective number of electoral parties, which is one way of measuring electoral fragmentation, at the highest since the start of devolution. ‘One of the things you can see is that the SNP, by any projection, still likely to emerge as the largest party, but you can see just how fragmented the Unionist vote is with the emergence of Reform UK there, but also perhaps the SNP having to share more of its vote with groups like the Scottish Greens.  First Minister John Swinney is being given a huge boost by the fragmentation of the Unionist vote, it has been warned 'Since 2007, they have absolutely dominated the share of voters who support independence, but that looks set to be lower at this election. So the SNP are not immune to that fragmentation either.’ The current More in Common projection, based on its multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll of 5,000 voters, is that the SNP would win 56 seats, Reform 22, Labour 17, the Lib Dems 14, Tories 12 and Greens eight. Mr Tryl highlighted that the Tories are currently still projected to hold a ‘handful’ of constituency seats but ‘by the smallest margins’, while overall there are 39 of the 73 constituencies across Scotland which are marginal, with the leading party ahead by less than five percentage points. He said: ‘It is a very, very close election because of the level of fragmentation and the truth is those seats could go either way.’ The More in Common data showed that Reform UK is polling above 25 per cent in 20 constituencies but is only ahead in two of them. Asked whether the rise of Reform UK and fragmentation of the pro-Union vote is helping the SNP avoid greater losses, he said: ‘That is very definitely the case, that fragmentation is making a difference.  'It is very definitely the case that fragmentation of the Unionist vote is benefiting the SNP, who themselves look very likely to lose votes.’ He highlighted Tory-held seats in the borders and Labour targets in areas like East Lothian as seats which could be won by the SNP.  On the potential impact of pro-Union tactical voting, he said: ‘That is an added complication of any of these models.  'On how will people vote in Scotland, there has always been this big element of who is the best-placed unionist or nationalist vote, particularly on the Unionist side on how do you stop the SNP?  'You’ve now got this other axis, particularly on the left, of who is best placed to stop Reform? I think that could make a significant difference.’ Malcolm Offord, the Scots leader of Reform UK, says his party is now the 'only challenger to this rotten SNP Government' He said small amounts of tactical voting indicate there is no certainty about who will be second place, and said that there is ‘so much to play for’. Following the publication of the More in Common poll, Lord Offord said: ‘We are now Scotland’s only challenger to this rotten SNP Government.  There is now a key question for Scotland’s other unionist parties - will they back a Reform-led Government or stick with failure under the SNP?’ Scottish Conservative deputy leader Rachael Hamilton said: ‘Lord Offord’s arrogant remarks prove yet again that Reform are completely relaxed about John Swinney and the SNP staying in power. ‘He’s got some brass neck urging pro-UK voters to back him when his party are fielding pro-independence candidates and Nigel Farage says it would be reasonable to have another referendum. ‘A vote for Reform only increases the chances of the SNP winning - that’s why John Swinney talks them up at every opportunity.’ Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: ‘This is a laughably desperate bid for attention from a party that has already admitted it can’t win this election. ‘Scottish Labour is the only party that can beat the SNP and Anas Sarwar is the only person who can replace John Swinney.’ No comments have so far been submitted. 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