Ranking the 2026 Ballon d’Or contenders: Four huge months for Mbappe, Yamal, Kane and others

Kylian Mbappe, left, and Lamine Yamal are both aiming for World Cup glory in 2026 Getty Images Share full articleThe first round of international fixtures in 2026 is complete — the last before we get to the World Cup in June. Now attention returns to club football for two huge months of decisive action as Europe’s major trophies are dished out. The Ballon d’Or won’t be handed over until October but the next 107 days, culminating in the World Cup final on July 19, will decide who wins football’s most prestigious individual award. Here, The Athletic ranks the contenders based on their performances so far this season and looks ahead at what’s to come for each player. Why he’s here: Kane has 48 goals and five assists for Bayern this season, with two months of club football and a World Cup with England still to play. The 32-year-old striker’s output at Bayern has risen under scrutiny: after 36 league goals in 32 games in his 2023-24 debut season (one every 79 minutes), he is at 31 in 26 this time (one every 67). With six Bundesliga games left (he won’t face Freiburg this weekend due to an ankle problem), he is five goals away from making this his most productive league season and has scored 14 in his last 10 club games across all competitions. Now fellow forward Jamal Musiala is back from a long-term injury, Kane has more support around him heading into the most important stretch of the season. The quality backs the volume of Kane’s output. His xGOT — a measure of shot placement — sits at 27.2 against an xG of 24.4 in the Bundesliga, and he is outscoring his expected goals figure by six, most by anyone in the top five European leagues. No striker in those competitions (the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1 are the others) is converting at this rate, nor with such consistency. What’s next: Bayern sit nine points clear in the Bundesliga, so the bigger test is a Champions League quarter-final against Real Madrid. Winning that would make them genuine favourites for the competition. A DFB-Pokal semi-final against Bayer Leverkusen, who Bayern drew 1-1 against just over a fortnight ago, follows on April 22. Then it’s the World Cup. Kane will head to North America with 10 goals in his previous 10 England appearances. He missed both fixtures in March with that minor ankle issue but is expected to lead the line at the tournament. England are contenders to get to the final, and so is Kane for the 2026 Ballon d’Or. Why he’s here: A knee sprain kept him out for over three weeks, so the Brazil vs France friendly last week was his first start since February — but just after the half-hour mark, he dinked the ball past Ederson to make it 1-0. Mbappe is La Liga’s top scorer with 23 goals, leads the Champions League with 13, and has 38 in total this season across all club competitions. When fit, he stretches defences with his movement, pace and finishing in ways no other player in world football can. Mbappe goes into the World Cup as France’s captain, and one goal behind Olivier Giroud’s record of scoring 57 times for their national team. In the tournament’s previous edition four years ago, he got a hat-trick in the final but still ended up on the losing side. Those are two records he will want to put right in 2026. What’s next: That troublesome knee will be monitored closely. Madrid are four points behind Barcelona with nine games left, including an away Clasico, and face Bayern in the Champions League quarter-finals over the next two midweeks. Both competitions are very much alive for them. Mbappe has already delivered in knockout football across two World Cups. A second winner’s medal in July to go with his one from 2018 in Russia would make his Ballon d’Or case almost unanswerable. Why he’s here: Fourteen league goals, a league-high nine assists and the most big chances created and successful dribbles in La Liga — all while managing a persistent pubalgia issue, and with defenders who have now had two full seasons of senior football to work out how to stop him. The now 18-year-old’s decision-making has improved as the attention has grown. The numbers that show the real impact of his performances are the ones detailing Barcelona’s record when they have to play without him. Since August 2024, they have won 45 of 54 games with Yamal starting, an 83 per cent rate. When he’s absent, that drops to 53 per cent, including five defeats in 13 outings (the same number as they’ve suffered with him in four times as many matches). He has completed 279 dribbles in that period — more than Madrid duo Vinicius Junior (152) and Mbappe (146) (in second and third place), at a better completion rate than both. In the Champions League, only Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (eight) has created more big chances this season. What’s next: Barcelona face Atletico Madrid away in La Liga this weekend, then host them four days later in the first leg of a Champions League quarter-final before the away second leg the following Tuesday. Losing Raphinha for five weeks adds to Yamal’s load. There’s a home Clasico in May still to come, which could well decide the title. Spain’s World Cup group — Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay — should see them cruise through to the knockout phase. If they and Yamal deliver at that tournament the way they did in their European Championship triumph two years ago, a new youngest Ballon d’Or winner in the award’s history could be on the cards. Why he’s here: Rice’s case is built on relentlessness, from both him as an individual and his Arsenal side overall. Among Premier League midfielders, only Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United has created more chances (101 to Rice’s 58) and played more passes into the box (247 to 212). Only three midfielders in the division take more touches, and only four win possession for their team more often. Among Arsenal’s squad, Rice leads for touches, passes, passes in the final third and passes into the box. He has created 14 big chances, and his 23 set-piece chances created are the most by anyone in the Premier League. No player at the league leaders has more assists. Defensively, he ranks second for tackles won, interceptions and recoveries, and has a 72 per cent aerial-duel success rate — the best of any outfield player at the club. Perhaps his most underrated quality this season has been availability. He has missed only one league game, and started 29 of the other 30. In every phase of manager Mikel Arteta’s system — pressing, building, creating, defending — Rice is always there. The numbers leave little room to argue that he is not the most important cog of this Arsenal machine. What’s next: Arsenal are nine points clear in the Premier League and face Sporting CP in the Champions League quarter-finals. Before that tie begins, they face Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-finals. Rice may well be the engine of all three trophy pursuits. Come the World Cup, England will, for the first time, have midfield options with some genuinely different profiles to potentially partner him. That flexibility should allow head coach Thomas Tuchel to get the best out of Rice on the biggest stage, strengthening his case for a place on the Ballon d’Or podium if Arsenal and England both win silverware between now and July. Why he’s here: Luis Enrique has built his Paris Saint-Germain side around movement, press resistance and relentless circulation. Vitinha is the player who makes it all work. Chelsea tried to man-mark PSG across two legs in the Champions League’s round of 16 and lost the tie 8-2 on aggregate. Vitinha does not rely on tricks, pace, or power. Instead, he brings relentless, suffocating control in the spaces opposing teams cannot afford to leave open. PSG play more passes per 90 minutes than any side left in this season’s Champions League and average the most possession, with Vitinha running the show. Among players still in the competition, he has covered more ground than anyone, at 136.8 kilometres (85 miles) in his 12 appearances. He receives, recycles, presses, recovers, and does it over and over again for 90 minutes, every game. Few players control matches at this level as consistently. This is the 26-year-old’s second-best season in front of goal, too, scoring seven times, six of them in the Champions League, while his seven Ligue 1 assists are one off doubling his previous best in a single campaign. What’s next: PSG’s defence of their European title continues as they face Liverpool in the Champions League quarter-finals. Their Ligue 1 trip to second-placed Lens, who are one point behind having played a game more, scheduled for the weekend between that tie’s two legs has been postponed until May to give them maximum rest and preparation time. Both competitions, clearly, remain alive, though they are out of the Coupe de France. Portugal will head to the World Cup with genuine belief. The midfield partnership Vitinha has built with club team-mate Joao Neves is quietly one of the most effective in international football. Why he’s here: Olise may have been in Kane’s shadow when he joined Bayern before the start of last season, but in a team full of big names, he has etched out his own space and repeatedly contributed to their successes. He is adept as a winger, a No 10, and a creator from deep or wide, and equally effective in each role. He has 11 goals and 17 assists in the 2025-26 Bundesliga alone and 16 and 23 across all competitions, making this already his most productive season in front of goal. In addition, the 24-year-old leads the Bundesliga in chances created from open play (62), big chances created (25) and assists (17). In the Champions League, among players with more than 20 dribbles, his 60 per cent success rate is the best in the competition. Olise has nine goal involvements in his past 10 games for club and country. Against Brazil last week, his assist for Hugo Ekitike to score what proved the winner — played with the outside of his boot — was the kind of unhurried, instinctive moment that defines him. His decision-making on the ball has evolved with the role and responsibility he now carries for both Bayern and France. What’s next: Bayern face Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals. Two legs against the club with the best record in the history of the competition will go a long way in defining where Olise and Bayern sit in terms of winning this edition. France have enviable attacking depth, yet he has carved out a role for himself, starting six of their past seven matches in which he has played. A run deep into the World Cup’s knockout phase as a member of one of the tournament’s strongest squads could make him impossible to ignore in the Ballon d’Or race. Why he’s here: Pedri is Barcelona’s orchestrator: technically gifted, and the player who organises them. Every passing lane, every pocket of space, every transition, it all runs through the 23-year-old midfielder. A young career repeatedly interrupted by injury has made these moments feel earned. He finished 11th in last year’s Ballon d’Or voting but this time he could go further. Only team-mate Pau Cubarsi completes more passes per 90 minutes in La Liga, and no player in the division creates more chances from open play per 90 than his 2.91. His 10 assists across all competitions this season are the most of his career. In the Champions League, he covers more ground per game than any Barcelona player at 11.3km, a detail that speaks as much to his mentality as his ability. What’s next: With Raphinha and Frenkie de Jong both injured, manager Hansi Flick will lean heavily on Pedri through the most important stretch of Barcelona’s season, with that Champions League quarter-final against Atletico and a Clasico at the Camp Nou still to come. At Euro 2024, Pedri combined with Rodri and Fabian Ruiz to form one of the most controlled midfields in tournament football — before a quarter-final knee injury ended his involvement. Spain will go into this World Cup as one of the favourites, and he’ll want to make this tournament his defining one. Rodri showed, through Manchester City’s 2022-23 Champions League run and the following year’s Euros, that midfielders who do not score heavily can still win the Ballon d’Or. For Pedri, such an outcome almost certainly requires his two teams to go a long way in the Champions League and World Cup. Both are possible. Why he’s here: He won the 2025 Ballon d’Or, and this season has been a reminder of both what he is capable of and what stands between him and consistency. Hamstring and calf problems have cost Dembele 19 games. He leads PSG for goal involvements with 15 (10 goals and five assists) in the domestic league, so he has not exactly gone missing. And he still has the business end of the season remaining, and this is where he truly came alive and made a difference last year: he had six goal involvements in the final five matches of the Champions League. Decisive when it mattered most. What’s next: PSG face Liverpool in the Champions League quarter-finals. Last season against the same opposition in the round of 16, he scored at Anfield in the second leg to level the tie on aggregate, then converted his penalty as PSG won in a shootout. Why he’s here: Haaland started the season red hot, playing like someone determined to make every existing goalscoring record irrelevant. City’s adjustment to a new style under Pep Guardiola has since slowed that early momentum but 30 goals and seven assists in his 43 club appearances are still not normal by any measure. The issue is that Haaland has spent the past few years making normal measures redundant. A haul of only four in his last 16 games surely points to a striker recalibrating to new patterns and new partners, rather than any real decline. City went out of the Champions League to Madrid in the round of 16. In the Premier League, Arsenal are nine points clear. What’s next: Norway will go to their first World Cup since 1998, and Haaland was central to getting them there with 16 qualifying goals, more than any other player. For most contenders on this list, the benchmark is winning the trophy in North America, or at least reaching the final. For Norway, success looks different. Qualifying was the first step. A run deep into the tournament would be transformative. Why he’s here: Vinicius Jr has 11 goals and five assists in La Liga, and 17 and nine for Madrid across all competitions this season. Four of those goals have come in his past two games for the club, including a decisive role in a comeback win against neighbours Atletico that kept them in the title race, where they trail Barcelona by four points. He has delivered key moments all season and, during Mbappe’s absences, kept Madrid moving without any drop in level. His best goalscoring seasons at Madrid came under Carlo Ancelotti, who will now be his Brazil manager at the World Cup. Few coaches maximise Vinicius Jr quite like the Italian, and that continuity could finally help him carry club-level dominance onto the international stage. What’s next: Madrid face Bayern in the Champions League quarter-finals, dreaming of extending their record total of European titles to 16 (next best? Seven). Then comes the World Cup. Ancelotti inherited a Brazil squad with enormous talent but real questions to answer. Group opponents Haiti, Morocco and Scotland should not trouble them. What follows those initial three matches is where Vinicius Jr’s Ballon d’Or case will be made. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Sukhman Singh is a freelance writer for The Athletic covering football and cricket. He previously worked in data and research with Southampton FC and Lupus Sport Management, and has written for outlets including Breaking The Lines and RG Media. A recent graduate from Loughborough University with an MSc in Sports Analytics and Technologies, he blends data analysis with tactical writing, bringing an analytical lens to performance and storytelling.