Premier League relegation battle: Spurs need De Zerbi bump, West Ham's tough run-in, Leeds sweat on injuries

AFC BournemouthArsenalAston VillaBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBurnleyChelseaCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamLeeds UnitedLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenham HotspurWest Ham UnitedWolverhampton WanderersScores & ScheduleStandingsFantasyThe Athletic FC NewsletterPodcastsPremier League relegation battle: Spurs need De Zerbi bump, West Ham’s tough run-in, Leeds sweat on injuriesTottenham are looking to recover from their humbling defeat to Nottingham Forest Alex Pantling/Getty Images Share full articleWelcome back to The Athletic’s update on the relegation battle, where our data and tactics writers take a look at the key trends behind the scrap for Premier League survival. After a three-week pause for the international break and the FA Cup quarter-finals, the Premier League returns on Friday for its decisive final stretch. With the help of Opta’s supercomputer, The Athletic assesses who is best placed to beat the drop. The notable scoreline that rippled through the bottom five was Nottingham Forest’s 3-0 thumping of Tottenham Hotspur. As shown below, a look at both sides’ expected goals figures for that one would suggest that the game was tighter than the final scoreline suggested, but Tottenham lacked a cutting edge once again. It was a result that compounded misery with Spurs sitting just one point above the relegation zone, and also led to temporary boss Igor Tudor subsequently leaving his position. The club have since confirmed the long-term appointment of Roberto De Zerbi as they desperately try to keep relegation at arm’s length. For Forest, that win takes them three points away from the drop zone and also makes it three games unbeaten for Vitor Pereira’s side. They have improved defensively in recent weeks, and there are reasons to be positive that their attack can get them over the line to safety. Morgan Gibbs-White has found some goalscoring form, but the sight of long-time absentee Chris Wood making a return from injury in Forest’s under-21 game with Newcastle United late last month will only add to the optimism that they have the requisite firepower to stay up. Despite their position of relative comfort, Leeds may be sweating slightly, despite picking up another useful point at home to Brentford last time out. A dramatic FA Cup quarter-final win at West Ham has also boosted spirits, but injuries to Anton Stach and Joe Rodon could throw the game plan off course. Aside from the energy of Stach in midfield and the versatility of Rodon across the defence, both contribute handsomely to Leeds’ set-piece output; only Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United has created more chances from dead-ball deliveries than Stach this season, while Rodon has sent eight headed efforts towards goal. As a team who are heavily reliant on set pieces, without a single open-play goal in their past five league games, Leeds will need to find a new way through compact defences. It is hard to look past Forest after that statement win at Spurs. They showed a ruthless streak that has been sorely missed this season, scoring three times from a 1.34 xG figure, their biggest overperformance for that metric in a Premier League match this campaign. Forest have scored at a rate of just 2.9 goals per 100 set pieces this season, with only Brentford’s number being lower (2.3), yet Igor Jesus emphatically headed home Neco Williams’ pinpoint back-post corner for the opener. Their second saw them finally capitalise on what has been a fruitful source of chance creation this season: the cutback. Only league leaders Arsenal have created more chances from cutbacks (64) than Forest (58), but when Gibbs-White turned home Callum Hudson-Odoi’s delivery, it was only their third cutback goal of 2025-26, and their first since Jesus scored one against Manchester City in December. Sustaining this newfound clinical edge will be critical to Forest’s chances. The good news on this front is Wood’s return to fitness. The New Zealand international striker was one of the Premier League’s most ruthless finishers last season, scoring 20 times from an xG of 13.4. Elsewhere, West Ham’s recent improvement was derailed by a limp 2-0 defeat away to Aston Villa last time out in the league, but they can still take encouragement from their broader run of form. The graphic below shows how the relegation candidates have fared for expected goals created and conceded over the past 10 top-flight games, with the east Londoners creating more than their opponents in half of them. De Zerbi, on the other hand, has his work cut out as he begins his Tottenham tenure, with their 2-2 draw against second-bottom Burnley the only time in this period that they have generated more than their opponents. Of all the sides still in reasonable danger of going down, it’s the team who sit safest — Leeds — who seem to have the most favourable run-in. While a trip to arch-rivals Manchester United on Monday is an intimidating start, home games against Wolves and Burnley represent big chances for Leeds to ease their way towards safety. Daniel Farke’s side have picked up almost 70 per cent of their Premier League points in front of their own fans this season, and should have enough, even if they are without regulars Stach and Rodon to rely on. Forest also have a home fixture against Burnley to come — even if it is three days after the second leg of their Europa League quarter-final against Portuguese league leaders Porto — but face difficult matches against top-five-chasing opponents in Aston Villa and Sunderland either side of those two games. That likely brings everything down to West Ham and Spurs, and although Opta’s fixture difficulty rankings lean in the favour of the latter, it is Nuno Espirito Santo’s side who have the chance to land a statement win against Wolves on Friday. The importance of Spurs’ tricky trip to Sunderland on Sunday cannot be overstated; pick up any points there, in De Zerbi’s first game in charge, and the picture changes once more. Unsurprisingly, Forest’s “six-pointer” win against Spurs has significantly shifted the odds in their favour. Their relegation probability now stands at 8.87 per cent, down from 35.08 per cent, with that defeat pushing Tottenham’s chances up to 26.87 per cent, their highest of the season. Some comfort for De Zerbi is that West Ham are still deemed more likely to go down than stay up, with their relegation probability at 57.68 per cent, making the home game tomorrow against a practically doomed Wolves side (99.9 per cent) a must-win. Leeds, meanwhile, as shown below, have hovered around the seven per cent mark for almost a month, edging towards safety through a series of draws. Manager Farke will be desperate for a win at Old Trafford on Monday to finally create some extra breathing room. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms