Premier League predictions: Man City vs Arsenal, Everton vs Liverpool and rest of Matchday 33

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At the halfway stage, I was feeling smug, six points clear at the top of our table, and you lot were hopelessly adrift at the bottom. And now? I was already smarting after losing top spot to six-year-old Wilfred, but lately a series of outstanding performances by our guest subscribers have taken the readers 18 points clear at the top. Last week it was Manchester United fan George, who predicted two correct scorelines and another three correct results and picked up three bonus points for good measure. Each week since the season began in August, four of us — Wilfred, a guest subscriber on rotation, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the Premier League results. We are awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so whereas Wilfred and I picked up three points apiece for backing Brighton to win 2-0 at Burnley, George won four points for the subscribers by tipping Sunderland to beat Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 and another four thanks to Manchester City’s 3-0 win at Chelsea. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-IcuqQ']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r I still felt I had an outside chance before last weekend, but not now. Wilfred is still in contention, but it’s time to accept I have — in common parlance — bottled it over the past few months. At some point in the next few weeks, I’m going to do a classic The Athletic deep dive on where it all went wrong for me. Even the ludicrous algorithm, with its usual plethora of 1-1s and 2-1s, outperformed me last week. If I don’t get my act together, it will overtake me. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-dDBCh']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Anyway, that’s quite enough about my struggles. This week’s guest subscriber is Everton fan Brad, 63, from Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania. Good luck, Brad. And don’t let anyone else tell you what to choose for the match of the week. Brad says: "Yes, I know about the match at the Etihad Stadium — but this 248th Merseyside Derby is historic: the first at Everton’s Hill Dickinson Stadium. It’s key for European qualification and for Everton to finish ahead of Liverpool (important to us Toffees!). Everton are unbeaten in three consecutive home derbies…" Oli says: "A week ago, I felt everything was pointing towards a seismic Everton victory in the first Merseyside derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Liverpool’s last two games — beating Fulham and performing creditably in defeat by Paris Saint-Germain — have shifted the balance somewhat, but I’ll stick with my initial instinct. “David Moyes has a terrible record against Liverpool (four wins in 40 Premier League matches and only one, with West Ham United, in the last 23), but this feels like such a great opportunity for Everton in their push for European qualification." Oli says: I was going to point out that these two teams, incredibly, have the opportunity to finish above Chelsea and claim the unofficial title of west London’s top team. But then I remembered that both finished above Chelsea in 2022-23. It’s a mark of both clubs’ continued ability to outperform their budget — and the ongoing failures of this extremely expensive and flawed Chelsea project, now in its fourth season — that it could plausibly happen again. I had imagined Brentford would fade in the final months of the campaign, but they have only lost one of their last nine Premier League games. What they’re doing is remarkable. Oli says: That was a terrific first-half performance from Leeds at Manchester United on Monday. They dropped considerably in the second half, losing their grip at 2-0 up after their opponents had a player sent off, but they held on for a precious win. With Noah Okafor on song, they can take another huge step towards Premier League survival by beating Wolves on Saturday. Oli says: As George Caulkin wrote after their latest defeat, Newcastle’s last six games of the season have begun to look like a trapdoor rather than a springboard. There is a growing dissatisfaction among the supporters, frustrated by the failure to build on two Champions League campaigns and last year’s Carabao Cup success and concerned by what challenges the summer transfer window might bring. They need a win to lift the mood. Bournemouth, whom they haven’t beaten in the Premier League in seven attempts under Eddie Howe, will not make life easy for them. Oli says: During Brighton’s mid-season slump, one of the criticisms levelled at their coach Fabian Hurzeler was that he seemed less animated on the touchline than his predecessor Roberto De Zerbi. Is that such a bad thing? They have picked up considerably under Hurzeler lately, challenging for European qualification again. And while De Zerbi is an excellent coach, his touchline manner didn’t seem to win Brighton many points in his difficult second season there (they finished 11th). What is certain is that De Zerbi desperately needs to inspire a reaction from Tottenham. So go wild, Roberto. Whether it makes any difference to that group of players, it remains to be seen. Oli says: Who would have imagined when Liam Rosenior and Michael Carrick shook hands after Hull City 2-2 Middlesbrough in April 2024 that their next encounter would see them in charge of Chelsea and Manchester United respectively? Both won their first four Premier League games in charge, but whereas United’s subsequent results under Carrick have held up reasonably well (three wins, two draws, two defeats in the league), Chelsea’s under Rosenior have not (one win, two draws, four defeats in the league). The entire Chelsea project is drifting, but I suspect they will rouse themselves to win at least one big game between now and the end of the season. This, against a weakened United defence, could be it. Oli says: Which is Villa’s best route to next season’s Champions League? Finishing in the Premier League’s top five or winning the Europa League? Top five looks more straightforward from this point, but why not both? They are, after a difficult couple of months, playing well enough to achieve both their objectives. Oli says: This is the second such fixture this weekend: relegation-threatened team at home to all-but-mathematically-relegated team. It’s a must-win for Nottingham Forest, whose final five games after this look tough. Fatigue is inevitable, given their Europa League exertions, but Forest have enough quality — and certainly enough motivation — to get the win against a Burnley side whose fate is all but confirmed. Oli says: This is it. The big one. By the end of Sunday, Arsenal will either have one hand on the Premier League trophy or they will be worrying it has slipped through their fingers again. The whole “bottlers” narrative will either have been silenced (for now) or it will be louder than ever. Do I think Arsenal are bottlers? No, I don’t. I just don’t think they are playing anything like confidently enough or boldly enough to inspire much confidence in their ability to go to the Etihad and get a result. It’s not beyond them — and nor do this Manchester City team exude anything like the same aura as their previous title-winning teams under Pep Guardiola — but Arsenal’s performance level has dipped alarmingly over the past few months. This could prove to be the perfect fixture at the perfect time for them, but right now, so soon after a tense Champions League tie on Wednesday night, it feels like the opposite. Oli says: Palace will be grateful for an extra day to recover from Thursday’s Europa League quarter-final second leg away to Fiorentina, but it still feels like a good time for West Ham, in desperate need of points, to go to Selhurst Park. I fancy a draw. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-Yv6lv']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Before joining The Athletic as a senior writer in 2019, Oliver Kay spent 19 years working for The Times, the last ten of them as chief football correspondent. He is the author of the award-winning book Forever Young: The Story of Adrian Doherty, Football’s Lost Genius. Follow Oliver on Twitter @OliverKay