Premier League predictions: Arsenal vs Fulham, Man Utd vs Liverpool and the rest of matchday 35

AFC BournemouthArsenalAston VillaBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBurnleyChelseaCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamLeeds UnitedLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenham HotspurWest Ham UnitedWolverhampton WanderersScores & ScheduleStandingsFantasyThe Athletic FC NewsletterPodcastsA Tale of Two Semi-FinalsKeith Andrews ExclusiveVAR Controversy in MadridPL Title Race Photos: Getty Images; design: Demetrius Robinson Share articleWelcome to week 35 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where late, late goals continue to cause chaos. The clubs scored 24 times across 10 Premier League games in week 34, a measly average of 2.4. But no fewer than nine of those came from 80 minutes onwards — and five of them were in stoppage time. That’s a stark illustration of one of this season’s Premier League trends. Goals are down — and those from open play are way down — but, with so many tight games left hanging in the balance in the closing stages, we are seeing a lot more dramatic late twists. Back in the 1990s, when stoppage time was usually limited to two or three minutes per match, there were fewer late goals. In 1995-96, only 144 of the 988 goals scored in the Premier League (that’s 14.6 per cent) came after the 80th minute. That has crept upwards over time, particularly as the amount of time added on (making up for the seconds lost to VAR checks, multiple substitutions, protracted goal celebrations and all those injuries that teams only seem to get when they are one goal ahead) has increased. But as recently as 2022-23, only 169 of the 1,084 Premier League goals scored (that’s just 15.6 per cent) arrived after the 80th minute. So far this season, it’s 196 of 927. That’s 21.1 per cent, equalling the competition’s high point of 2007-08. The data for stoppage-time goals is even more striking. Throughout the 1990s, the share of goals arriving from the 90th minute onwards was always less than four per cent of the total. Until the past few years, it had never been higher than the 8.1 per cent of 2007-08. But the three most recent seasons have seen a boom in the number of goals in added time: 112 out of 1,246 in 2023-24 (9.0 per cent), then 95 out of 1,115 (8.5 per cent), and so far in this one it’s 104 out of 927 (11.2 per cent). This has played havoc with our predictions. I don’t know how many times since August I have been left cursing a late goal for wrecking one of my scorelines, but it’s a lot. Funnily enough, last week was a bit swings-and-roundabouts for me on that front. I missed out on spot-on picks for 1-1 draws as Bournemouth’s game against Leeds United escalated to 2-2 in the closing stages and West Ham United scored in the 92nd minute to beat Everton. But I also got lucky when Florian Wirtz struck in stoppage time to secure a 3-1 Liverpool win over Crystal Palace and again when Mathias Jensen’s 87th-minute consolation for Brentford meant a 2-1 victory for Manchester United. Every week of the season, four of us — a guest subscriber on rotation, an algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and me — have been predicting the Premier League results with varying degrees of success. We’re also awarding a bonus point for any “unique” prediction; so those two spot-on scores (the wins for Liverpool and Manchester United) earned me four points apiece. It was far too little too late for me, though. I’m already out of our title race. That looks like a straight between the subscribers and young Wilfred, who was left cursing his beloved Palace for conceding that stoppage-time goal at Anfield, denying him a precious four-pointer. Leeds’ stoppage-time equaliser at Bournemouth was another sickener for him. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-t1beL']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r It was a tough week for Wilfred and guest subscriber Andrew, a Leeds fan from Brooklyn, New York, but it looks like a straight fight between those two for the title. I’m still well adrift — and the less said about the algorithm, the better. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-tl8ht']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r This week’s guest subscriber is Adam, a 27-year-old Liverpool supporter from London. Good luck, Adam! Adam says: “A six-pointer in the battle for third. Liverpool fans are desperate to finally see a convincing big-game performance. United look better under Michael Carrick, but also aren’t in scintillating form. With Mohamed Salah robbed by injury of the chance for farewell goals against a favourite foe, Liverpool will stumble to a cagey 1-1 draw.” Manchester United 1-1 Liverpool Oli says: “I’m not sure I’ve picked a 3-2 scoreline all season. So why now? Why this game between two teams whose meetings often fail to live up to the hype and who, entertainment-wise during 2025-26, have hardly been thrill-a-minute? I can’t really explain. Maybe it’s the fact that, beyond the obvious context of the rivalry, there’s nothing more than Champions League qualification at stake — and even then, the stakes are pretty low, with the top five now well clear. Maybe it’s the fact that there is firepower in both line-ups and that, personnel-wise or structure-wise, they both look a little vulnerable at the back. How did I decide which team would win? I tossed a coin. Heads for United, tails for Liverpool. It was heads.” Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool Even now, unbeaten in five Premier League games and with only four defeats in their past 21 going back to the start of December, Leeds are still not guaranteed to stay up. They have also had to contend with the disappointment of last weekend’s FA Cup semi-final defeat against Chelsea. But this looks like the perfect game for Leeds: at home to Burnley, who are already down and have now parted company with head coach Scott Parker as thoughts turn to next season back in the Championship. It’s on a Friday night, under the floodlights, just the way Leeds like it. I’ve been fairly optimistic on West Ham’s behalf in recent weeks, convinced they have tightened up and found a formula for survival, but the time I spent with Brentford head coach Keith Andrews last week left me with the feeling that his team are not going to roll over for anybody. This one really could go either way — or neither way — but I’m going for a home win. I’ve just looked back and in late November, when Sunderland were seventh after an excellent start, Opta’s Supercomputer calculated that they were still much more likely to finish in the bottom four (20.4 per cent probability) than the top 10 (13.6 per cent). But here we are, at the start of May, and though they are 12th, there's still a possibility of qualifying for Europe. Will they make it? Probably not; Opta has them finishing in their current position with 50 points (four more than their current total). But that would be a remarkable achievement for a promoted club. Wolves were still fighting for survival long after relegation appeared an inevitability but three defeats, without scoring a goal, in their past three games suggest Sunderland could enjoy themselves at Molineux on Saturday. What a miserable season it has ended up being for Newcastle. Some blame head coach Eddie Howe for that, but I feel he was dealt a pretty poor hand last summer from the moment Alexander Isak made his intentions clear — or at least, once it became clear that the club, then in a state of executive flux, were not going to land any of their top targets to replace their star striker. Newcastle’s post-Isak struggles (and the challenges that lie ahead in this summer’s transfer market) underlined the remarkable ongoing resilience of the Brighton model, where players and coaches come and go but a sense of upward mobility remains. Having said all of that, I’m going to back a Newcastle win. For Arsenal, the margin for error is paper-thin — and possibly non-existent, given they could plausibly win all their remaining games and still miss out to Manchester City for the title on goal difference. The scheduling of their Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid (first leg this past Wednesday, second leg on Tuesday) is unlikely to help them. Neither are Fulham, who are in contention for European qualification, having taken 14 points from their last eight games. I’m going to be at the Emirates Stadium for this one on Saturday evening, and I’m expecting it to be another gruelling slog for Arsenal and their fans. This is the first of three matches this weekend involving clubs who will have played the first leg of a European semi-final on Thursday night — in Crystal Palace’s case, away to Shakhtar Donetsk, albeit on neutral turf in Poland rather than war-hit Ukraine. On top of the travelling, these games at the business end of the continental competitions take up so much energy and emotion. I don’t know what kind of fixture you would ideally choose to play three days later, but it wouldn’t be away to a hard-running, high-pressing Bournemouth team. Another home win, particularly if — as would be understandable — Palace manager Oliver Glasner rests key players ahead of the second leg against Shakhtar at Selhurst Park next Thursday. The timing of this game, in the middle of a two-leg Europa League semi-final against fellow Premier League side Nottingham Forest, is far from ideal for Villa. That — along with the fact that they are already almost assured of Champions League qualification via a top-five finish — should help Tottenham in some small way. But can Spurs help themselves in their battle to avoid relegation? I think they might on Sunday evening, now that, under Roberto De Zerbi, they finally have their first Premier League victory of 2026 on the board. I was even half-tempted to go for an away win, but I’ll temper that slightly. Again, this is horrible scheduling on a Bank Holiday Monday afternoon, three days before Forest go to Villa for the second leg of that Europa League semi-final. But what is the alternative? Whichever way you look at it, it’s three huge games in eight days. In an ideal world, Forest head coach Vitor Pereira would rest almost his entire team, keeping them fresh for Thursday, but he can’t do that when, even after six games unbeaten in the Premier League, Forest are not out of the relegation argument. Then again, they’re going to be playing at Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea haven’t won a league match in five tries going back to January. Even with fatigue and that huge European tie looming, Forest could get something. City have been here before — away at Everton in the final weeks of a title race, knowing they have to get three points. In May 2014, they just about held on to win a dramatic game 3-2. In May 2023, it was a more straightforward 3-0 victory. Even in April last year, when playing for Champions League qualification rather than the championship, it came down to late goals from Nico Reilly and Mateo Kovacic to earn a 2-0 victory. They are going to a different stadium now, of course, and playing a better Everton team — well, not as good as in 2014, but a lot better than three years ago. It could be a really tight, really tough game for City on Monday night, with Arsenal fans watching along nervously, desperate for an Everton win. But I feel City’s greater quality and greater need should be enough. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-FCVeA']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms