Premier League matchweek 35: The numbers to know

Can Bruno Fernandes equal the Premier League assist record this weekend? Alex Livesey/Getty Images Share articleAfter Arsenal came away with a 1-1 draw against Atletico Madrid in midweek, their Champions League semi-final will now be decided at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday. The domestic race is just as tight, with Manchester City three points back and with a game in hand. Mikel Arteta’s side host Fulham on Saturday, before City visit Everton at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Monday night. The weekend’s headline fixture is Liverpool at Old Trafford. Arne Slot’s side have steadied after FA Cup and Champions League quarter-final exits, posting back-to-back Premier League wins. Elsewhere, Chelsea, scoreless in the league since beating Aston Villa 4-1 on 4 March, host Nottingham Forest. Here are three fixtures, and the numbers driving them. Both sides arrive short of goals, and recent form points the same way. Arsenal have scored just six times in their last eight games in all competitions, never more than once. Fulham have four in their past seven, with three of those coming against already-relegated Burnley. Signs hint towards a low-scoring afternoon. At the Emirates, Arsenal have made a habit of grinding out narrow wins in the title run-in because their defensive structure is so reliable. They have conceded 11 in 17 league home games, and they have conceded multiple goals only in defeats to Manchester United and Bournemouth. Only Liverpool have visited and kept them scoreless. The fine margins in front of goal could be eased by the return of Bukayo Saka. He came off the bench against Newcastle and Atletico Madrid after a month out with an Achilles issue, and could start on Saturday. Arsenal look sharper with him: more threat from open play, more danger from his set-piece deliveries. Alongside Declan Rice, Saka’s delivery has turned Arsenal’s corners into a major weapon. There is a distinctive quirk in the game-state numbers. Arsenal have scored 14 league goals in the first 15 minutes after half-time, more than any other side. Fulham have conceded 12 in the same window, also a league high, and 26 per cent of their total conceded. The reverse fixture followed an eerily similar script: Leandro Trossard scored the only goal in the 58th minute, from a corner. Marco Silva’s Fulham are adaptable and well-drilled: they rotate in build-up, push full-backs high to stretch the pitch, and defend in a compact shape that crowds central areas. They have started strongly this season and are the only side besides Manchester City yet to concede in the opening 15 minutes of any league match. They concede more in the second half than in the first. If Fulham can keep it level deep into the second half, the Emirates can grow tense in a title race that feels increasingly fragile. Arsenal have the league’s deepest squad, but that midweek trip to the Metropolitano will be in the legs. Even so, Arsenal have never lost a home league game to Fulham in 32 meetings, the longest unbeaten home run in English league history. Casemiro’s farewell run is shaping into the best stretch of his United career, and Monday’s 2-1 win over Brentford was his best in a United shirt. He led the match for tackles, duels and interceptions, anchoring United’s most physical league performance of the season. Kobbie Mainoo complemented him, topping the side for passing and ball progression. United’s 29 tackles were their most in a single league match this season. United led 2-0 at half-time, but Brentford had dragged their defenders out of shape and found free players in the final third consistently. Michael Carrick switched to a back three to add an extra body to the last line. He may keep it for Liverpool, with Lisandro Martinez suspended and Luke Shaw doubtful. On the right, the shape suits Amad, who thrived at wing-back under Ruben Amorim earlier this season with Bryan Mbeumo ahead of him, but looked off it as a left winger against Brentford. On the left, Diogo Dalot and Matheus Cunha had a strong outing in the reverse fixture at Anfield, with 49 per cent of United’s attacks targeting Conor Bradley’s side. Cunha missed Monday but could return. Liverpool’s right side has been patched together all season. Jeremie Frimpong has not made the position his own, and Arne Slot has tried Dominik Szoboszlai, Joe Gomez and Curtis Jones there. Jones has emerged as the most convincing option. In his last two league starts at right-back, he has been Liverpool’s most active defender while still heavily involved in build-up. The bigger absence on that flank is Mohamed Salah, out with a hamstring injury. He is the fixture’s all-time top scorer with 13 league goals, and has seven at Old Trafford. Bruno Fernandes is one assist short of the all-time single-season Premier League record of 20, and his run began against Liverpool. In the 84th minute, he volleyed a cross to the far post for Harry Maguire, registering his first assist of the season. Liverpool have kept only two clean sheets in 13 games since the end of February. His chance to equal or even surpass the long-standing record could come in the same fixture. Two sides, both riddled with managerial churn this season, arrive in contrasting form at Stamford Bridge. Forest are unbeaten in their last nine. They are also 1-0 up in the Europa League semi-final, with Chris Wood’s penalty edging Aston Villa, his first goal in consecutive games since January 2025. Since Vitor Pereira’s arrival on 15 February, no team has scored more than Forest’s 16 league goals. In the same period, Chelsea have scored just six, fewer than any side, and they have failed to score in each of their past five league games, which have all been defeats — their worst such run since 1912. The underlying numbers tell a different story. The 10-goal gap feels like a juxtaposition of extremes: Forest’s 16 goals have come from an xG of 8.68, the league’s biggest overperformance, while Chelsea’s six have come from an xG of 12.06, the biggest underperformance. Against that backdrop, Calum McFarlane has taken charge as caretaker for the second time this season. Each attack is built around a No 10. Forest captain Morgan Gibbs-White has 16 Premier League goal involvements this season: 13 goals and three assists. In 2026 alone, he has 12; only Bruno Fernandes (15) has more. Chelsea’s attack runs through Enzo Fernandez. He is second in the league for xG sequence involvement (24.5), a measure of how often a player features in attacking moves that end in a shot, weighted by chance quality. Only Erling Haaland (27.6) ranks above him. The battle behind the No 10s will be just as consequential, shaping what those in front can conjure. Elliot Anderson, Forest’s disruptor, leads the league for possessions won per 90 (8.3). Ibrahim Sangare, who missed the Europa League first leg, is the structural midfielder behind Forest’s run: 34 points from 24 league games with him, and one win in 10 without. Moises Caicedo, Chelsea’s ever-present controller, tops the side for ball progression and defensive involvement per 90 and will be central to their approach. Forest are unbeaten in all three Premier League visits to Stamford Bridge since 2022. Chelsea are winless at home since 31 January. Forest could rest key players ahead of the second leg, but the teams behind them in the relegation battle are not slowing down either. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms