OPEC+ raises output in first production decision after UAE's exit to project stability

Dubai: The oil alliance OPEC+ moved to contain fallout from the withdrawal of the UAE, announcing a modest increase in production targets while avoiding any direct reference to the departing member.

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At an online meeting, Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other producers agreed to raise their combined quota by 188,000 barrels per day for June. The group said the move reflects their "collective commitment to support oil market stability."

The absence of any mention of the UAE stands out, pointing to an effort to project unity despite the split, noted industry analysts.

The UAE, which accounted for roughly 15 per cent of OPEC exports, announced on April 28 that it would leave both Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the wider OPEC+ grouping.

The decision took effect days later and was framed as part of its evolving long-term energy strategy. Its exit removes a key player from the group’s core decision-making circle, even if the immediate supply impact remains limited.

Theoretical boost

Despite the headline increase, the real impact on supply remains constrained. Production across OPEC+ is already running below target levels, while exports from the Gulf are blocked by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The route has been shut by Iran amid escalating conflict following US-Israeli strikes in late February.

Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, told AFP the increase is largely symbolic, noting that "while output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited." He added that the move reflects a broader effort by the group to signal it remains in control despite market disruption.

The regional conflict continues to weigh heavily on output. Kuwait reported zero crude exports in April, a situation not seen since 1991. State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp declared force majeure, affecting around 2 million barrels per day.

War-driven losses

Even Iran has seen its own exports decline under the same conditions. Overall OPEC+ output averaged 35.06 million barrels per day in March, sharply down from February levels.

Oil prices fell after reports that Iran proposed renewed talks with the United States via mediation. West Texas Intermediate dropped more than five per cent before recovering above $101 per barrel, while Brent crude showed a similar pattern.

The reaction underlines how geopolitical signals, not quotas, are driving the market — even as OPEC+ moves to show it still controls the narrative after the UAE’s exit.