One thing voters won't tolerate - politicians who deliberately make things worse: LORD ASHCROFT

Published: 21:50, 4 April 2026 | Updated: 01:47, 5 April 2026 My latest poll has thrown up something very unusual – an unprecedented three-way tie between Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens. It’s true that with no election in sight, voting intention polls should be taken with more than a pinch of salt. It’s also worth noting that I assess party support in a different way from most pollsters. I ask how likely people think they are to end up voting for each party on a scale from zero to 100, and include those who put their chances of voting for one party above 50 – an alternative to forcing them into a decision on what they would do if there were an election tomorrow (which there won’t be). But others have also found things getting closer in recent weeks. Whatever the headline numbers, I think we can detect some of the reasons it might be happening. By his melancholy standards, Keir Starmer hasn’t had a bad couple of weeks. Whether through conviction, habitual indecision or the fact that he only does what Attorney General Lord Hermer allows him to, many voters think the Prime Minister has ended up in more or less the right position over the conflict in Iran. Unfortunately for him, that has not boosted Labour’s support. Some are less critical of Starmer than usual but his government’s overall record means people are hardly raring to get out and vote for him. At the same time, as this snapshot captures, the Greens are enjoying something of a moment. Green Party leader Zack Polanski is championing the decriminalisation and rigorous oversight of all narcotics, extending even to Class A drugs such as heroin and cocaine Reform UK’s once-unstoppable climb appears to have hit a temporary plateau. Pictured: Party leader Nigel Farage attends a rally on November 24, 2025 in Llandudno, Wales However numbers are calculated, there is no denying the remarkable progress they have made under Zack Polanski, the eco-populist and noted boob whisperer. As my survey shows, their policies are a heady mix of the superficially appealing and wildly unpopular. I found big majorities in favour of a wealth tax, higher taxes on energy companies and a £15-an-hour minimum wage (though I suspect people would be less keen on the effects of these ideas if they were put in practice). At the same time, people were heavily against allowing more asylum seekers to settle in Britain, scrapping our nuclear deterrent and decriminalising all drugs for personal use. Perhaps more controversially, nearly a third of voters said they felt less favourable towards Polanski when they heard that in his days as a hypnotherapist he once claimed he could increase the size of women’s breasts by hypnosis. Polanski claims to have apologised and put all this behind him, but in a different way he is arguably still at it. Just as there are those who want to change their body shape through mind over matter, there will always be people eager to believe we can fund the NHS by taxing the rich, that legalising drugs will make our streets safer and that open borders will mean tolerance and harmony: the same wishful thinking, but for a slightly different audience. Like other pollsters, I have found Reform UK’s overall lead narrowing since the start of the year. That’s not to say their bubble has burst, simply that their seemingly inexorable rise has abated, at least for now. Global events might be part of the reason, especially over the last month, and not just because of Nigel Farage’s friendship with President Trump. The perceived success of Trump’s second term was always likely to be a factor in the fortunes of other populists on the Right. After the President took office in a blizzard of executive orders, British voters regularly told us it would be nice to see leaders over here equally prepared to move fast and break things. We haven’t heard much of that for a while, funnily enough. Perhaps the idea is less appealing when breaking things becomes literal rather than metaphorical. Somewhat like the PM, Kemi Badenoch has consolidated her personal ratings but without seeing this translate into a major advance for her party. She has piqued people’s interest and has the measure of Starmer in the Commons but these are only the first steps in achieving a wider Tory revival. Kemi Badenoch has successfully bolstered her individual approval ratings, yet this personal popularity has so far failed to trigger a significant breakthrough for her party in the polls A significant portion of the electorate believes the Prime Minister has successfully navigated the complexities of the Iran conflict, landing on a stance that is generally viewed as appropriate ‘I do think she talks a lot more sense,’ one former Tory told us. ‘But when they were in, they didn’t change things.’ Most still think the party is much the same as it was when they booted it out so decisively; altering that perception is a critical part of the next phase of her leadership. Starmer, meanwhile, is left to deal with the day-to-day problems of governing. Most say they want the state to step in and help if energy prices rise significantly (Tory supporters, notably, are the only group to disagree, saying we can’t afford endless bailouts). People are divided as to whether help should be universal, or – as seems to be Labour’s inclination – should favour those already claiming benefits. In a generous mood, voters might concede that there’s little politicians can do about spiralling prices resulting from a war on the other side of the world, but they do ask that ministers don’t go out of their way to make things worse. Having seen how precarious our supplies from the Middle East can be, more think the government should end its absurd ban on new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea than keep it. For worried families, household bills and security of supply tend to win out over net zero targets. For now, Polanski and the Greens are unencumbered by such realities. Their appeal is about vibes, not policies. ‘I like how hopeful all of their ideals sound,’ one young man said to us last week. ‘With the state of the world as it is, I just feel like it’s a good idea to go for someone whose purpose is to just try and make everything better.’ If only someone had thought of doing that before. l Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more on his work, visit lordashcroft.com. Follow him on X/Facebook @LordAshcroft. The comments below have not been moderated. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? 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