NHL Stanley Cup playoff matchups: Current seeds, odds and clinching scenarios

AtlanticBruinsCanadiensLightningMaple LeafsPanthersRed WingsSabresSenatorsMetropolitanBlue JacketsCapitalsDevilsFlyersHurricanesIslandersPenguinsRangersCentralAvalancheBlackhawksBluesJetsMammothPredatorsStarsWildPacificCanucksDucksFlamesGolden KnightsKingsKrakenOilersSharksScores & ScheduleStandingsPodcastsFantasyNHL OddsNHL PicksPlayoff projectionsNHL Draft rankingRed Light NewsletterNHL Regular Sidney Crosby and the Penguins clinched a playoff spot on Thursday night. Bruce Bennett / Getty Images Share full articleRed Light newsletter 🏒 | This is The Athletic’s hockey newsletter. Sign up here to receive Red Light directly in your inbox. Good morning, hockey folks. There are just seven more days (!) and 52 games left in the NHL’s regular season, which means a week from today we’ll be all-in on playoff matchups and projections. Let’s set the table for where the races sit after last night’s jam-packed 14-game schedule. The total number of teams locked into the postseason is now up to nine. Pittsburgh’s convincing 5-2 win over the Devils was enough to cement its spot, sending the Penguins back to the playoffs for the first time since 2021-22. And the team had a defiant “proved you wrong” video ready to go right away, too. Utah, meanwhile, dusted the Predators 4-1 to guarantee its first playoff berth. The Mammoth are set to go through the Pacific Division as the first wild card — and incredibly have a better record than even the division-leading Oilers. Here’s what we know for sure at this point: Still fighting for the remaining spots in each conference, sorted by their current odds of making it, are: East (three spots left) Bruins: 98 percent Senators: 96 percent Flyers: 42 percent — cutoff — Islanders: 29 percent Blue Jackets: 22 percent Capitals: 8 percent Red Wings: 5 percent West (four spots left) Oilers: 99 percent Golden Knights: 99 percent Ducks: 98 percent Kings: 76 percent — cutoff — Jets: 13 percent Predators: 12 percent Sharks: 3 percent So, the two final battles to watch are in the Metro and the West’s second wild-card spot. If the playoffs started today, these would be our matchups (based on points percentage) with league ranking in parentheses: If your team is missing the party, here are the latest lottery odds, featuring a three-way tie among the Leafs, Panthers and Kraken for the fifth-to-last spot. They’re all on pace for 81 points, but whoever loses out will take the “crown.” That means Saturday’s Leafs-Panthers game in Toronto — a rematch of the Atlantic Division final in Round 2 last year — could have big-time implications for the top of the draft, especially because Toronto’s pick is only top-five protected. With the Capitals three points back of a playoff spot and needing to jump a few teams in the East, it certainly appears Washington will be on the outside looking in. (Its playoff chances are at a measly 8 percent, according to our probabilities.) That could mean that the Capitals’ next three games are the last we’ll see of Alexander Ovechkin in the NHL. Ovechkin, 40, quelled some of the speculation earlier this week by saying he’s deferring his retirement decision to the summer. He’s the third-oldest player in the league, behind Brent Burns and Corey Perry, and this season has clearly been a slog for everyone in D.C. Plus, Ovechkin is in the final year of his contract, with little extension talk happening. Sidney Crosby, 38, weighed in today on Ovechkin’s big decision in this great story from our Josh Yohe, including the following musings on their relationship over the years: 💬 “Yeah, it would be so weird if he’s not around anymore,” Crosby said. “It would be weird, especially because we’ve (almost) always been in the same division. We see each other so often. We came into the league together. So, really, it’s all we’ve ever known. There have been changes. You play with a lot of different guys over the course of 20 years. But for me, seeing him a few times a year, and seeing him in the playoffs, has always been a constant.” The Capitals and Penguins will face off in back-to-back, home-and-home games this weekend, starting tomorrow in Pittsburgh, so it’ll be worth tuning in for some good ol’ Member Berries as two of the best players in league history go head-to-head two more (final?) times. Also: The Capitals’ season finale is Tuesday in Columbus, so all eyes will be on how the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer handles what could be his last few games over the next five days. (Anyone else feel old?) Early in last night’s game, Toronto Maple Leafs rookie Artur Akhtyamov looked like he might take a run at the record for saves made in a goalie’s first NHL start, as he stopped 39 pucks in a 5-3 loss to the New York Islanders. Toronto was outshot 44-16 in the game, including 24-3 (!?) in the first period. The record of 49 saves in a debut start is held by two Canadian goalies: Can you name them? Answers at the bottom. 🔀 This story on a new social media account that tracks and publishes NHL players’ follows and unfollows on Instagram is wild. What a world we live in. 📈 Panthers analytics whiz Sunny Mehta is in demand these days, as the Leafs and Devils have him lined up for interviews for their GM vacancies. And he’s not the only Florida exec in demand. 🏆 The NCAA’s Frozen Four is in Las Vegas this year, and Wisconsin and Denver have punched their tickets to Saturday’s final with big wins last night, including Denver’s double overtime instant classic victory over star-studded Michigan. 🧒🏼 The No. 1 prospect pool in the NHL this season? It’s the Chicago Blackhawks. See where your team ranked here. 🤔 Which defense pairings have been the best and worst in the NHL this season? 📰 Netminder Linus Ullmark opened up about his trying season in Ottawa as the Senators continue their impressive playoff push. 🦣 Debate at The Athletic HQ this week: Should Utah’s brand new Zammoth actually be called the Mammboni? 🏋️ Awards season is on the horizon, so the Power Rankings Guys dished out a fake award for each team. Oh, there’s a shake-up in the rankings’ top five, too. 🎤 In the latest episode of “The Athletic Hockey Show,” our hosts dig in on Connor McDavid’s growing case for the Hart Trophy and break down Scott Wheeler’s prospect pool ranking series. The rookie goalies who made 49 saves in their first NHL starts are Manny Legace and Laurent Brossoit, who has played one game for the San Jose Sharks this season in a remarkable comeback from injury. Like Akhtyamov, neither won those games despite their heroics in the crease. 📫 Love Red Light? Check out The Athletic’s other newsletters. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms James Mirtle is a senior writer covering the NHL for The Athletic. James joined The Athletic as the inaugural editor in Canada in 2016 and served as senior managing editor of The Athletic NHL for four years. Previously, he spent 12 years as a sportswriter with The Globe and Mail. A native of Kamloops, B.C., he appears regularly on Sportsnet 590 The Fan and other radio stations across Canada. Follow James on Twitter @mirtle