NHL playoff update: 7 clinched, 6 close, while the Red Wings battle their own math

AtlanticBruinsCanadiensLightningMaple LeafsPanthersRed WingsSabresSenatorsMetropolitanBlue JacketsCapitalsDevilsFlyersHurricanesIslandersPenguinsRangersCentralAvalancheBlackhawksBluesJetsMammothPredatorsStarsWildPacificCanucksDucksFlamesGolden KnightsKingsKrakenOilersSharksScores & ScheduleStandingsPodcastsFantasyNHL OddsNHL PicksPlayoff projectionsNHL Draft rankingRed Light NewsletterNHL Regular Patrick Kane and the Red Wings need a miracle. Bruce Bennett / Getty Images Share full article1Red Light newsletter 🏒 | This is The Athletic’s hockey newsletter. Sign up here to receive Red Light directly in your inbox. Good morning to everyone except the “punch their ticket” truthers. I’m right and you’re wrong and I will not be discussing this further. OK, on to other, arguably as important things … The late-season firing trend continued last night, with news breaking that the New Jersey Devils will part ways with GM Tom Fitzgerald. The move comes one day after the New York Islanders fired Patrick Roy, making it the second consecutive week we’ve had a coach firing on Sunday afternoon followed by a GM firing on Monday night. As with Brad Treliving a week ago, the surprise here is more around the timing than the change itself. The Devils are almost certainly going to miss the playoffs for the second time in the last three years, and the fifth time since Fitzgerald became GM in 2020. Their win-loss record turned up the temperature on Fitzgerald’s seat, which was already hot after his cap management led to the Devils missing out on Quinn Hughes earlier in the season. The news leads to three big questions: The push for the playoffs continues, and we seem to be getting some clarity around who’s in. Seven teams have officially clinched: Six more teams are sitting at 95 percent odds or better in our projections, meaning we can pencil them in too — welcome aboard to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins, Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks, Vegas Golden Knights and Utah Mammoth. That’s 13 teams, meaning we’ve basically got three spots up for grabs: the last wild card in the West, the last wild card in the East and third place in the Metro (which gets a spot even if that team ends up finishing behind the sixth-place team in the Atlantic, a scenario with non-zero odds of playing out). Let’s get caught up on who’s still in the race and how it seems to be shaking out. We’ll go from the teams in the best shape to those in the worst. The Ottawa Senators have the best odds, sitting at 82 percent after Sunday’s win over Carolina. They’ve got the Lightning tonight, followed by a Florida Panthers team that spanked them last week, then the Islanders, who should be in full desperation mode. But the Senators finish with the Devils and Leafs, and more importantly, they control their own destiny. Also worth noting: They’ll own the regulation wins tie-breaker against anyone. The Los Angeles Kings are up to 62 percent after last night’s shootout win over the Nashville Predators, who dropped to 15 percent. That puts the Kings firmly in charge of that last wild-card spot in the West, especially with a schedule that serves up Seattle, Calgary and Vancouver twice among their final five games. The Philadelphia Flyers are making a late run, with eight wins in their last 11 to move to 46 percent odds. We’d all but written them off a month ago, but they’ve been able to make up ground as a frantic race morphed into a turtle derby. Their matchup with the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday might be the most important game of the week. The Columbus Blue Jackets have been a great story since their coaching change, but six straight losses might doom them. The model says they’re still at 34 percent, but that will plunge if they can’t beat the Red Wings tonight. While they’re technically ahead of Columbus in points, the New York Islanders have just four games left, one fewer than all the teams they’re battling with, and their odds have plunged to 21 percent. The Patrick Roy firing may have come out of left field, but after four straight regulation losses, you can understand the urgency. A reminder: Like the Flyers and Blue Jackets, the Islanders have two paths to the playoffs — they can get in by finishing third in the Metro or as a wild card. We’re all rooting for the San Jose Sharks, but the model has them at just 22 percent after they beat the Blackhawks 3-2 last night. They’ve got the Oilers and Ducks next, but then their last four — Vancouver, Nashville, Chicago and Winnipeg — look very winnable. If that’s not motivation enough, a wild-card spot pushes 19-year-old Macklin Celebrini back into the thick of the Hart Trophy race. And finally, the Detroit Red Wings … well, the Red Wings need their own section. Meet me down below. (Several other teams are still alive, including the Winnipeg Jets at 10 percent, Washington Capitals at 8 percent, St. Louis Blues at 3 percent and the Calgary Flames, Seattle Kraken and Devils still technically having a pulse. But that’s solidly into “need a miracle” territory.) So yeah, the Red Wings. You remember them — good team, legendary GM, finally made the big deadline trade to bring in reinforcements in a season where they absolutely have to break their decade-long playoff drought, reputation for collapsing in March. The good news is the whole “can’t win in March” thing is no longer the story. The bad news is that’s because we’ve now added “and look even worse in April.” Regulation losses in six of eight have plunged the Wings’ playoff odds to 12 percent, all but making both of this week’s matchups with the Blue Jackets and Flyers must-wins. As always, when I’m confused about a team I like to reach out to its beat writer, and Max Bultman was willing to answer my call. Normally with these sorts of things, I come prepared with four or five questions. But this time, for the Red Wings, I had only two: What’s going wrong, and what happens if they can’t fix it? The last time we did this, it was because the Red Wings looked like they were going to cruise to the postseason, and maybe even push for the top seed in the East. At the time, I wrote that “it would take an epic late-season collapse for them to miss.” Since then, they’ve gone 8-12-2, so … yeah. What’s gone wrong? 💬 Bultman: “In short, injuries exposed their depth issues, and year-long five-on-five scoring struggles came back to bite them at the same time their goaltending came back down to earth — all while their special teams cratered in March. “The first sign of trouble came in late January, when the Red Wings lost Simon Edvinsson to injury for their final seven games before the Olympic break. They were actually fortunate that the break blunted the impact of that injury, but the Red Wings didn’t handle it well and went 2-3-2 into the break. That was an early tell that their depth could become an issue down the stretch, considering they had been unsustainably healthy up until that point. “Detroit tried to address its defensive depth by trading for Justin Faulk at the trade deadline. But hours after it made that trade, Dylan Larkin injured his knee in a loss, and Andrew Copp was injured two games later, leaving the Red Wings without both of their top two centers, as well as some of their depth with Michael Rasmussen and Nate Danielson getting hurt right around the same time. That made five-on-five offense — already an issue for Detroit all season — even harder to come by. While goaltender John Gibson covered that up for most of the year, he was more average in March, which left the Red Wings weakened on both ends of the scoreboard. “There certainly seems to be some psychological component, too. Coach Todd McLellan has talked about his team’s struggles to stop the bleeding, and that has led to some especially ugly periods of late. When things go wrong for the Red Wings, they go really wrong — and they’ve been going wrong for about five weeks now.” What happens next if they actually blow this? 💬 Bultman: “It certainly would be tough to justify running it all back next year if they miss the playoffs for a 10th straight season. McLellan is only about 16 months into his tenure, and given all the success he had in his first calendar year with the team, this doesn’t feel as simple as a coaching change — though those are coming fast and furious in the NHL right now, so who knows? “Some level of roster changes feel inevitable, most likely centered around a forward group that can go stale too often. A barren free-agent market won’t make that an easy problem to address, but they’re going to have to get creative because this issue has followed them for years now. “And then there’s the one you’re really asking about: I don’t know what the answer will be on general manager Steve Yzerman. Ownership doesn’t do much media here in Detroit. I’m still skeptical he would be outright fired by the Ilitch family, but a collapse like this, in what was billed as a make-or-break year, could force ownership to explore some manner of front-office shakeup. With a lack of concrete information, it’s hard to say anything definitively. But I can at least envision a scenario where he doesn’t hold the GM title next year, and that’s the first time in seven years I’ve said that.” It’s been a rough few weeks for Wings fans, so let’s cheer them up by reminding them how good they once had it. Unfortunately, that means we’re going to have to kick Patrick Roy when he’s down, but I’m guessing he has other things on his mind this week. So, here’s this week’s relatively straightforward question: The Wings memorably shelled Roy to the tune of a 7-0 win in Game 7 of the 2002 Western Conference final. Can you name every future Hall of Famer in Detroit’s lineup that night? 🗽The PWHL made headlines by selling out Madison Square Garden over the weekend. Peter Baugh and Hailey Salvian looked at the league’s future in New York. 👺 If you missed it, be sure to check out the 2026 goalie mask power rankings. 👶 Scott Wheeler’s prospect pipeline is down to its final week. Today, the Flames slide into the third spot. 🐈 Pierre LeBrun caught up with Panthers GM Bill Zito on his plans to rebound from a lost season. 👔 With more coaching jobs about to open up, Joe Smith talked to the University of Denver’s David Carle about a potential NHL return. 🥊 Wait, goaltender Igor Shesterkin — who brawled with New Jersey’s Jacob Markström last week — has boxing coaches? 🎙️ On Monday’s “The Athletic Hockey Show,” the guys break down the Roy shocker and look at John Tortorella’s first week in Vegas. Plus, Celebrini’s late Hart push. Listen or watch here. It’s another busy Tuesday, with 11 games on the slate. 📺 Blue Jackets @ Red Wings 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+ It’s not quite an elimination game, but it’s going to feel that way for whichever slumping team comes out of this with yet another loss. Meanwhile, teams such as the Senators (who are hosting the Lightning) and Flyers (who are in New Jersey) will be watching the out-of-town scoreboard and hoping for a regulation result. 📺 Kraken @ Wild 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+ It’s getting late early for both teams, with the Wild running out of time to catch the Stars for home ice in the Central bar fight that will highlight Round 1. Meanwhile, the Kraken will need to run the table to have any chance in the Western race. In other words: It’s a must-win for both teams, which makes it a fun watch for you. 📺 Oilers @ Mammoth 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN / SN360 This suddenly feels like a first-round preview. The crossover Mammoth were trending towards being a sneaky playoff pick when their path through the Pacific started in Anaheim. Can they handle Connor McDavid and friends? Here’s an early chance to find out. Full NHL schedule here. Try streaming games like these for free on Fubo. On the night of that infamous blowout, the Red Wings lineup included future first-ballot Hall of Famers Steve Yzerman, Nicklas Lidstrom, Brendan Shanahan and Chris Chelios. That would be impressive enough, but don’t forget that year’s edition of the team also had UFA hired guns Luc Robitaille and Brett Hull. Oh, and some guy named Domink Hasek in net. That brings us to seven. Are we done? We are not. That night’s lineup also included a trio of Russian legends in Sergei Fedorov, Igor Larionov and a young Pavel Datsyuk. Add it all up, and that’s 10 Hall of Famers in the lineup, meaning more than half of the Red Wings that saw the ice that night would ultimately receive the sport’s highest honor. You know, maybe Roy and friends did well to hold that juggernaut to just seven goals. 📫 Love Red Light? Check out The Athletic’s other newsletters. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Sean McIndoe has been a senior NHL writer with The Athletic since 2018. He launched Down Goes Brown in 2008 and has been writing about hockey ever since, with stops including Grantland, Sportsnet and Vice Sports. His book, "The Down Goes Brown History of the NHL," is available in book stores now. Follow Sean on Twitter @DownGoesBrown