New Research Finds ICE Immigration Raids Harm The Economy

LeadershipLeadership StrategiesNew Research Finds ICE Immigration Raids Harm The EconomyByStuart Anderson,Senior Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Stuart Anderson writes about immigration, business and globalization.Follow AuthorMay 19, 2026, 12:36pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers question a man's status on Lake Street near the Karmel Mall in Minnesota on December 10, 2025. ICE arrests harm local economies by reducing consumer spending, according to new research. (Photo by Christopher Juhn/Anadolu via Getty Images)Anadolu via Getty ImagesNew research shows Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests harm local economies by reducing consumer spending. Data indicate shopping declined as ICE raids increased in many local areas. An earlier study concluded ICE arrests harmed U.S.-born workers, including those with a high school education or less. Congressional Republicans plan to pass a reconciliation bill providing approximately $70 billion in additional funding to ICE and Customs and Border Protection. A 2025 reconciliation bill approved a record $170 billion in immigration enforcement spending.New Immigration Research Examines The Demand Side Of The EconomyConsumer spending drives the U.S. economy. However, new research finds ICE enforcement activity can shrink that spending.UPENN Wharton economics professor Zeke Hernandez used data on over 5,000 ICE raids and combined them with 5.4 million data points (POIs, or points of interest) on foot traffic and spending. “Foot traffic falls 2.7% and spending declines 6.2% per POI per week—or 8.1 billion fewer visits and $3-14 billion in foregone spending in a single year,” according to the study.Hernandez found that the impact of the ICE arrests was long-lasting and not confined to one demographic group. “Effects intensify near raid sites, do...