NBA Awards watch: Who has the edge for MVP, Rookie of the Year and other honors?

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If you’ve been following, you’ve probably read how the Awards Watch shakes out, so let’s get right into it. (Bet MGM odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.) !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-z9rc9']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Honorable mentions: Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets | Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers The injuries to Cade Cunningham, Luka Dončić and even Anthony Edwards have made filling out the MVP ballot a pretty confusing situation. Dončić may win this appeal for his extreme circumstances involving missing two games for the birth of his child. At that point, it's very easy to include him in the mix. But without that settled, you start searching for a fifth guy, and I guess that guy is Brunson. Durant is also heavily in consideration for me, but it hasn't exactly gone to plan in Houston. Brunson has an easy, steady case to recognize with the way he leads a very good Knicks team.  The Celtics have been executing an "Undertaker sitting up from the casket" rise all season long, and they've made proclamations of a "gap year" look completely foolish. The majority of the credit on the court goes to Brown, who took his game to another level. This is the best we've ever seen him play on offense over the course of the season. And he's been an awesome defender on top of that. His value has been special. Jokić extending his play from the first two months of the season would have likely made him my pick for MVP. He was doing things at a level of execution and excellence that were historic, even for him. Nearly 28 points per game on 60 percent from the field and 40 percent from deep while also leading the league in rebounding and assists would have made him a very easy choice. But since his knee injury, the turnovers seem worse, and the efficiency isn't nearly as great as it was before. He's still been awesome on the court, and he's arguably the most valuable most days. In a race like this, though, you have to nitpick.  This ranking assumes Wemby can Euro-step around the 65-game rule with his rib contusion and maintain awards eligibility. If so, he put on a heck of a run to challenge the reigning MVP. His play on both ends of the floor is something we've rarely seen. He is set up to win multiple MVPs and multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards, and those will surely come in the same years. That will move him into exclusive clubs. He just didn't have a consistent enough season at that MVP level to grab this award away from the odds-on favorite. It might be a little ridiculous to say during the season in which Gilgeous-Alexander broke the record for most consecutive 20-point games, but consistency with the Thunder star might go a little under-appreciated. The reasons he is the pick for MVP as of right now are two-fold. How settled into this vote do I feel? Probably 90 percent !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-FUbvV']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Two honorable mentions: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors | Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat It's a little tough sorting through Barnes, Gobert and Adebayo for this third spot. The Thompson twins are also names to consider. Gobert ultimately wins the third spot because of impact and consistency. While Gobert is certainly the butt of a lot of jokes, his defensive presence is massive. The Wolves can't defend anybody without him on the floor, and they're nearly elite with his presence out there. Yes, he has a lot of funny clips online, but overall, his defense in isolation and in protecting the rim has been great. Holmgren would be the easiest answer for "who wins DPOY if Wemby isn't eligible?" The Thunder have the best defense in the league, and Holmgren has anchored that nearly all season. He's a really good shot blocker who doesn't sell out constantly to try to contest the attempt. Isaiah Hartenstein missed 33 games, and Williams has missed 56. Those are two very important defensive presences for OKC. Holmgren has helped hold this defense down in their absences. The only question about this award is whether Wembanyama will qualify. He has been the biggest difference-maker on defense. He's easily the best rim protector in the league, and he regularly forces some of the best offensive players to make business decisions when deciding how to attack him. And it's just the beginning. How settled into this vote do I feel? 100 percent !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-Lm6qF']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Two honorable mentions: Dylan Harper, Spurs | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans I think there is a solid case to move Harper into this slot because of the impact he's had coming off the bench for San Antonio. But in looking at the totality of the season, Edgecombe has been more consistent. As mentioned with MVP, that has to matter. Consistency in rookie performance may decide it between the other two guys on this list. Edgecombe has been excellent, though, and in a lot of other years, he'd be a leading candidate to win it. This is a tough one, because every alternate angle and analysis dissecting Flagg against Knueppel makes me change my mind. Ultimately, I'll roll with the consistency of Knueppel right now, but I could end up changing my mind a few ways ... even by the end of this sentence. Flagg is the best player in this rookie class, but that doesn't mean he's had the best season. And my knowledge of the award is not "who will be the best player" when you're voting. It's just whether one rookie had the best season. Flagg's recent flurry into history, scoring 96 points in a two-game span and becoming the first rookie to do that since Wilt Chamberlain (he did it five times) has made everybody kind of halt the coronation of Knueppel. With good reason! That flurry was a reminder of how good Flagg was before the foot sprain that cost him eight games in February and March. But when he came back, he was very inefficient until recently. Is that everything? No. You can talk about him being one of the higher-volume clutch guys in the NBA, his defense and his all-around game. For Knueppel, consistency does mean a lot. He hasn't had extended dips in his production. No rookie has ever averaged at least 18 points with a higher true shooting percentage. He also helped turn the Hornets around, which has allowed him to do this in games that matter a lot more than what Dallas is doing. This is a coin flip, but I'm leaning toward Knueppel at the moment.  How settled into this vote do I feel? Probably at 40 percent !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-IaL6k']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Two honorable mentions: Naz Reid, Timberwolves | Reed Sheppard, Rockets There's a lot of competition between Reid, Sheppard and Hardaway for this third spot. You could probably even throw Ajay Mitchell into the mix, had he not missed 20-plus games. Hardaway (13.5), Sheppard (13.6) and Reid (13.5) all have similar scoring numbers. Reid gives you some rebounds and a block. Sheppard gives you some assists and a steal or two. Hardaway gives you the best shooting of the trio. He's also been the most consistent of those three, which gives him the slight edge to make the final ballot. After a brilliant rookie season and a tough sophomore campaign, Jaquez found his groove again. His outside shooting isn't there, but he makes over 50 percent of his shots while providing good volume scoring. He also throws over four assists and grabs about five boards a game off the bench. He's been huge in helping Miami reshape its identity to a high-octane offense. Jaquez has been so good for the Heat that you're often waiting for him to check into a Heat game to feel like things have finally started. Johnson is the lowest scorer (13.0) of these five, but it feels like he's had the biggest impact. His rebounding at his size and position often allows the Spurs to play a little bit smaller. He's a wing who plays like a power forward, similar to what has made teammate Harrison Barnes a perfect role player over the years. Johnson's 3-point shooting is above league average at 36.9 percent, and it's been a roller coaster from one month to the next. But his shot making, defense and overall impact have been steady in helping San Antonio get to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  How settled into this vote do I feel? Probably at 90 percent !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-34RS5']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Two honorable mentions: Quin Snyder, Atlanta Hawks | Charles Lee, Hornets Taking over for Gregg Popovich is tough. Navigating the West is tough. Having a young core, even as talented as it is, can be tough. Trying to jump from a non-Play-In team to the No. 2 seed in the West is nearly impossible. Johnson has managed to navigate all of those potential problems, and the Spurs are thriving. I know the betting odds are long, but it wouldn't shock me if he walked away with this award. Since the first week of November, the Pistons have held the No. 1 spot in the East. That wasn't supposed to be the case. And despite losing Cunningham in the final weeks of the season, they still didn't come close to relinquishing that spot. Bickerstaff had a great argument for winning the award last year, and he has a great argument for winning it this year. He's the favorite, but he didn't blow expectations out of the water as much as the guy I'm leaning toward. Would it make Mazzulla mad to win what he calls a stupid award? Or does he secretly want it? We might find out pretty soon. The Celtics weren't supposed to be close to this good. This version of Boston was supposed to be somewhere in the Play-In conversation. Instead, it could easily be the favorite to win the conference. Yes, Brown has been huge in driving that on the court. But Mazzulla's coaching has made every player in the rotation a threat to contribute.  How settled into this vote do I feel? Probably at 20 percent !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-2gyJ9']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Two honorable mentions: Jalen Johnson, Hawks | Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers Rollins is one of the better stories of improvement this season. Unfortunately, the Bucks have been such a mess that it keeps getting overlooked. Rollins has been a fringe NBA player for most of his first three seasons. This year, he went from a deep rotation point guard to a legitimate starter. His minutes more than doubled, but his production tripled without losing any efficiency. He went from 6.2 points to 17.2 points per game, but his true shooting went from 60 to 58.4 percent. Tripling his scoring and not really losing efficiency is true improvement. His playmaking got much better, too. There's a decent chance that the time with Cunningham sidelined puts Duren over the top. He showed great growth all season long scoring the ball and defensively. His leadership on the court has been better. And during the final stretch of the season, he's become a monster at getting to the free-throw line and converting. If he showed a little more playmaking or a little more of a jumper, he might have run away with this award. Some of this has been really helped by the Trae Young trade to Washington. But Alexander-Walker is currently my pick for MIP. His ability to run the offense, both as a playmaker and as a scorer, has ratcheted up every single month. Aside from a bad February, he shot the lights out this season. He shares so much of the initiation of that offense with Jalen Johnson (another MIP candidate), but the Hawks are not doing this well without Alexander-Walker's improvement from last season. And he's still a really good defender. He's improved so much that it wouldn't be shocking to see him as an All-Star next season.  How settled into this vote do I feel? Probably at 80 percent Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Zach Harper is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the NBA. Zach joined The Athletic after covering the NBA for ESPN.com, CBS Sports and FRS Sports since 2009. He also hosts radio for SiriusXM NBA and SiriusXM Mad Dog Sports Radio. Follow Zach on Twitter @talkhoops