Morocco Among Least Exposed African Economies to Middle East Conflict
Rabat – A new report by S&P Global Ratings highlights Morocco as one of the African economies least exposed to the economic spillovers of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, underlining the country’s relative macroeconomic resilience in a period of heightened global uncertainty.
The study assesses the impact of the conflict on African sovereign credit profiles, warning that rising energy and fertilizer prices are likely to deepen macroeconomic imbalances across the continent. However, Morocco stands out due to stronger external buffers, including relatively higher foreign currency reserves and a more developed domestic capital market.
According to the comparative ranking covering rated African sovereigns, Morocco is placed at the bottom of the exposure scale – 25th out of 25 – indicating the lowest level of vulnerability among the countries assessed.
The evaluation is based on five equally weighted indicators: trade dependence on the Middle East, exposure to energy shocks, external vulnerability, foreign exchange reserves, and public debt dynamics. Across these dimensions, Morocco consistently records moderate or contained risk levels compared with many regional peers.
Limited trade dependence and contained external risks
The report shows that Morocco imports 6.8% of its goods from the Middle East, below the African average of 11%, while only 1.1% of its exports are directed to the region, compared with a continental average of 14%.
Its net exposure to oil and gas trade with the Middle East is estimated at -5.8% of GDP, reflecting limited direct sensitivity to hydrocarbon flows from the region. Fuel subsidies are assessed at 1.4% of GDP, while the current account deficit stands at -2.5% of GDP.
External financing needs are equivalent to 89.1% of usable reserves, and net external debt is contained at 13.8% of GDP – figures the report considers moderate within the African sovereign landscape.
Stronger buffers and financial stability indicators
One of Morocco’s key strengths highlighted in the study is its reserve position, covering around 5.5 months of imports of goods and services, above the African average of approximately three months.
Inflation is reported at 1.8%, while net government debt stands at 64.1% of GDP. Interest payments represent 7.7% of public revenues, a level below the regional median.
The report also points to the depth of Morocco’s domestic capital market as an additional stabilizing factor, helping to mitigate external financing pressures.
In March 2026, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed Morocco’s sovereign rating at “BBB-/A-3” with a stable outlook, keeping the country in the investment-grade category – among the strongest ratings in Africa.
Regional outlook under pressure
At the continental level, the report warns that the escalation of the Middle East conflict – triggered in late February 2026 – has shifted the outlook for African sovereigns. Brent oil prices have risen by around 50% since the beginning of the year, with S&P assuming an average of $85 per barrel for the remainder of 2026.
This surge, combined with higher risk aversion in global markets, has increased refinancing costs for many African states. The resulting rise in import bills for fuel and fertilizers is expected to place additional pressure on inflation, fiscal balances, and external accounts.
While some countries benefit from buffers such as fertilizer stocks or oil-exporting status, the report identifies economies like Egypt, Mozambique, and Rwanda as among the most exposed. Oil exporters such as Nigeria, Angola, and Congo-Brazzaville are comparatively less vulnerable due to improved terms of trade.
Against this backdrop, Morocco’s relatively strong external position and diversified financial structure place it among the economies best positioned to absorb external shocks linked to the evolving geopolitical environment.
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