Michael Carrick's substitutions are about to come under the spotlight

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Mbeumo only came on in the 70th minute alongside Diogo Dalot. Both were stripped and waiting as Casemiro’s header pulled United back into the game. And though Carrick’s side laboured on in search of an equaliser against Leeds, Mbeumo and Dalot were the only two changes all night. Joshua Zirkzee and Mason Mount were left watching from the sidelines. Manuel Ugarte became a makeshift centre-back while Ayden Heaven stayed in reserve. Carrick’s interim spell has been better than anyone at Old Trafford could realistically expected, putting United in a strong position to qualify for next season’s Champions League even after a second defeat in 11 games. His use and timing of substitutions have been one of the more curious aspects of his three months in charge, though, whether that be waiting until the 68th minute to introduce Benjamin Sesko while behind at West Ham United in February or the apparent reluctance to change things on Monday night. Looking at other Premier League managers to have taken charge of at least 10 games this season, only Oliver Glasner, Sean Dyche and David Moyes have made fewer substitutions than Carrick’s 3.5 per game. Just once has United’s head coach used his full quota of five changes, in March’s 2-1 defeat at Newcastle United. And among top-flight managers this season, Carrick waits the longest to make his first substitution, only looking to his bench after 65 minutes on average. Luke Shaw’s 24th-minute substitution due to illness against Crystal Palace brings that average down considerably, too. Every manager is forced into an early change every now and again, but without it, the average time of Carrick’s first substitution would be 69 minutes. All numbers need to be placed in context, and there are important factors to apply in Carrick’s case. Firstly, an 11-game sample is small compared to the rest of the league. United will learn more about his approach to in-game management over the course of the Premier League run-in. Until then, his two and a half years in charge of Middlesbrough offer a more complete picture of how and when he likes to use his bench, and Carrick’s in-game management became a topic of debate on Teesside last season. With an hour gone away to Bristol City in February last year, Middlesbrough were 1-0 up. Carrick’s opposite number Liam Manning then made four changes in quick succession, sparking a turnaround. Carrick did not immediately respond to George Earthy’s 72nd-minute equaliser and as he prepared to make his first changes of the game 10 minutes later, Earthy scored again. Bristol City won 2-1, consigning Middlesbrough to a fifth straight defeat. Carrick spoke philosophically afterwards. “If it goes to plan and we win the game, it’s a good decision. When it doesn’t, people question it, and I understand that,” he told TeesideLive. Middlesbrough’s form recovered but the subject was revisited after a 1-0 defeat at Millwall in April, when four proactive changes by Alex Neil before the hour mark led to a 65th-minute winner from substitute Camiel Neghli. Again, Carrick had substitutes stripped and ready to come on, watching the goal go in. The following week, Carrick explained that he makes substitutions based on “the feel of the game”. “It always depends. Sometimes it’s quite straightforward, sometimes it’s quite obvious, and other times it might be certain spaces or ways we want to attack, certain runs we want to make, certain attributes we want to get into the pitch to influence the game in our favour in whatever way,” he told local reporters. Then, in what would be his final game in charge, requiring a win at promotion-chasing Coventry City to have any hope of reaching the play-offs, Jack Rudoni’s header put the hosts ahead just before half-time. Carrick waited until the 67th minute — 23 in-play minutes after Rudoni’s breakthrough — to make a change. Four more followed before Rudoni added a second goal to effectively end Middlesbrough’s season and Carrick’s time in charge. Carrick clearly values consistency in selection, both in his starting line-ups and during the game. “Some teams change a lot, which in some ways makes it harder to predict, but it’s equally new for themselves every week as well,” he said after the Millwall defeat. “We choose to be pretty consistent and we feel that it gives us the benefit of knowing who we are, where we are, and where we should be in terms of positions.”  It is an understandable approach, one reflected in the data. Last season, he ranked 27th out of 33 Championship managers (who managed 10 games or more) on the average time of their first substitution, clocking in at 61 minutes. And again, Carrick made among the fewest in-game changes of any manager in the league, averaging 3.8 per game. Overall, the impression on Teesside was one of a head coach who, relative to other managers, would wait to switch things up rather than rushing into a reshuffle. That has persisted at Old Trafford too, but then comes the second important piece of context: under Carrick, United have often been in a strong position in games, meaning there has been less of an appetite to make changes. Since his appointment, United have led for 242 second-half minutes, have been level for 156 and have only trailed for 97. It is no coincidence that on the four occasions Carrick has waited the longest to make a change — against Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Fulham and Manchester City — United were ahead and went on to win. Monday night was also only the second time that Carrick’s United have found themselves behind at half-time. Previously, against Palace last month, United also reemerged from the tunnel unchanged. Seven minutes later, Matheus Cunha won a penalty, Maxence Lacroix was sent off, and Bruno Fernandes equalised from the spot to send United on their way to a 2-1 win. Changes for changes’ sake are not necessarily helpful. Until this defeat against Leeds, Carrick could justifiably answer any questions about his in-game management by responding that more often than not, it ain’t been broke, so why fix it? Monday night was the longest that United have trailed in a game since Carrick took charge, though, as well as the first time that they have trailed by two goals and the first time they have been behind for more than an hour. Despite that, changes from the dugout were few and far between, and not especially forthcoming. United’s final six games, especially the next three against sixth-place Chelsea, seventh-place Brentford and fifth-place Liverpool, will ultimately decide whether Carrick capitalises on an overwhelmingly positive three-month spell in charge to secure Champions League qualification and perhaps a permanent gig. He can expect mid-game shifts of momentum and setbacks along the way, though. And after the defeat to Leeds, when they come, there will be a renewed focus on Carrick and how he responds from the touchline. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms