Labour set to lose control of 50 councils in next month's local elections as AI-driven model shows Reform and Green surge while many seats 'sit on a knife-edge'

By GREG HEFFER, POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT Published: 13:45, 28 April 2026 | Updated: 13:45, 28 April 2026 Labour is set to lose control of 50 local authorities at next month's elections in the face of a Reform UK and Green Party surge, an AI-powered model has shown. In an update to its local elections model ahead of the 7 May contests, data insight firm Bombe projected Reform will win the most council seats overall. Nigel Farage's party are forecast to perform particularly well in working-class towns in Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex and the North of England. They will also enjoy success in some urban wards, including pockets of the Manchester area, Newcastle and across the Midlands, according to the research. Meanwhile, the Greens are predicted to win outright control - or become the largest party - in a number of inner London boroughs. These include Lambeth, Lewisham, Hackney, Southwark and Greenwich while, outside the capital, Zack Polanski's party is also expected to perform well in Manchester, Oxford and Cambridge. Overall, according to the latest Bombe model, Reform will gain control of 14 councils, while the Greens will gain control of eight. The Liberal Democrats are predicted to lose two councils and the Tories will lose three, while there could be a huge increase in the number of councils left under no overall control. Your browser does not support iframes. Reform are projected to gain around 1,380 council seats across England, with the Greens gaining an extra 700 councillors. Labour are forecast to lose 1,400 seats, with the Tories losing just over 200, and the Lib Dems shedding 160 councillors.  The research also suggested a significant number of wards are sitting on a knife-edge ahead of the 7 May vote. Bombe found the margins across a significant number of wards is 'extremely fine', with some areas set to be won and lost on just handfuls of votes. The firm said that even very small shifts - such as in turnout - could change outcomes in a meaningful number of seats. Its updated model incorporates individual candidate data, county council geography and boundary changes, while it uses ward-level voting behaviour between 2022 and 2026. The model uses Gradient Boosted Regression Prediction (GBRP) and is validated against real-world results. It correctly called 17 of the 20 most recent by-elections at 85 per cent accuracy. Mike Joslin, co-founder and CEO of Bombe, said: 'Our pioneering machine learning technology is now able to predict individual candidates in a way other companies have not attempted. 'It accounts for historic incumbency, local candidate profile and thousands of other factors drawn from real-world behaviour across the last four years. 'The sheer number of boroughs under no overall control tells you everything about how tight this election will be. 'There will be wards won and lost on handfuls of votes. The Green advance in inner London is a significant political story. 'We are predicting them to win in inner-city communities like Lambeth, Hackney and Lewisham, where Labour have held power for decades - former heartland territory. That is a fundamental shift.' The comments below have not been moderated. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.