Keir Starmer's future as Prime Minister 'rests on the outcome of Makerfield by-election', top pollster warns

Sir Keir Starmer's future in Downing Street "rests on the outcome" of the upcoming Makerfield by-election, a top UK pollster has warned.

Speaking to GB News, Sir John Curtice reacted to new YouGov polling which showed Andy Burnham would trounce Sir Keir in a Labour leadership contest.

The data revealed that the Greater Manchester Mayor is the first choice for Labour leader, voted for by 47 per cent of members.

Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer came runner-up on 31 per cent and ex-Health Secretary Wes Streeting's support tumbled to just four per cent.

Reacting to the data, Sir John told GB News that there is "still a degree of regard for Keir Starmer among the membership".

He said: "So although two-thirds of them said that they think he should stand down at some point before the next general election in 2029, only a third said that they necessarily thought he should stand down right away.

"It just emphasises the extent to which Keir Starmer's fate probably rests on the outcome in Makerfield."

Sir John argued that he has "no doubt" Mr Burnham could receive the 81 nominations needed to challenge Sir Keir for the Labour leadership.

The pollster said: "If Andy Burnham can win, I don't think we have any doubts that he can get the 81 nominations amongst MPs.

"And it's clear from last week's polling and this week's that Mr Burnham is well ahead of Keir Starmer in the popularity contest between the two of them."

However, he cautioned that if Mr Burnham was to lose in Makerfield, it could continue the ongoing "leadership crisis" within the Labour Party.

He added: "On the other hand, if Andy Burnham doesn't make it, the Labour Party will find itself still in a leadership crisis, although the majority of Labour MPs, at least in private, think that Keir Starmer should go.

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"Whether or not there is anybody else around who can be sure of beating him amongst the membership at the moment at least is still uncertain."

Asked by host Andrew Pierce whether he has witnessed such a by-election before, Sir John told GB News that the circumstances are "remarkable".

He explained: "The nearest we have to compare is the by-election in 1963, in Perthshire, when after Sir Alec Douglas-Home had been nominated by the so-called Conservative Magic Circle to replace Harold Macmillan as Prime Minister, Macmillan nominally said he was leaving because of health reasons, but there were also feelings that he was actually being pushed out.

"Yes, this by-election is remarkable in the sense that we've got somebody who, if they stand, may well also indeed become Prime Minister, but not with at least the official acquiescence of the incumbent, but rather with the incumbent being very clear that they don't wish to leave."

Sir John argued that the "only reason why we might even contemplate Labour being able to win this by-election" in Makerfield is because of "the known personal popularity" of Mr Burnham in the Manchester mayoral election.

He explained: "Before the general election, he got 63 per cent of the vote across the whole area. In the General Election, Labour got 43 per cent.

"Now the question is just how much of that personal popularity will translate into this constituency, which is not a million miles away from where Mr Burnham lives.

"At this particular point in time and in these circumstances, and that is the big unknown, and frankly, we're all waiting for the first opinion poll or two are assuming that Mr Burnham does become the candidate. Because, of course, he's not been nominated to see whether or not indeed he does have a competitive chance."