Is Vijay ‘X factor’ in TN polls: Buzz grows as he strikes a chord among youth, women

Tamil film superstar-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) faces an unusual situation in the April 23 state Assembly elections, which is a cause for both cheer and anxiety for the party. For a new political startup testing electoral waters for the first time, the TVK is contesting Tamil Nadu’s all 234 seats, taking on not only the two well-entrenched Dravidian majors, the ruling DMK and the principal Opposition AIADMK, but also national parties like the BJP and the Congress. Riding on Vijay’s popularity, the TVK appears to be drawing support of a significant section of youth and women – and therein lies a glimmer of opportunity and a looming challenge for him. While Vijay’s message of change seems to have permeated various groups, disrupting the long-settled electoral language of caste and religion, it could be just confined to a section of those under the age of 35-40 years. Across the state’s southern belts, including Kanniyakumari and adjoining dstricts where Christian voters also have sway, the TVK’s pitch is creating a resonance among the young and the restless. Vijay, 51, belongs to the Christian community, which makes up over 6% of the state’s population. In Kanniyakumari, where he held a roadshow Sunday, one had to look hard to find a person with gray hair. Hundreds of youngsters on two-wheelers, including women with their brothers or partners, flocked to the four-lane highway to catch a glimpse of Vijay, with some of them calling him Thalaivar (leader) instead of the usual Thalapathi (commander) that he is popularly known as among his fans. The 59-year-old Tamil nationalist S Seeman’s Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK), which projects itself as an alternative to the Dravidian ideology, too has some appeal among the young and middle-aged people. But, clearly, Vijay has emerged as a key factor in this high-stakes election. He has added unpredictability to what was once a straight contest between the two Dravidian majors and their respective alliances. At least, among a section of the youth, a fatigue towards the traditional alternating duopoly involving the DMK and the AIADMK is palpable. And they seem to be not enamoured by a slew of freebies and sops that the two leading players have announced as poll pledges. The elders dismiss them as apolitical “single pasange” (single boys) who are, they claim, “just crazy for Vijay and his movies but have not reached the voting age”. Evidently, Vijay has not been able to transcend the age barrier, at least not in this election. And his supporters understand the reality. “This time our hope is that he (Vijay) becomes the main Opposition. Politics is a dirty world. If he doesn’t emerge as the main Opposition, the ruling dispensation will finish him. He will not be allowed to stand straight. They will slap cases against him, like what happened in Karur (after the stampede incident occurred at his rally). It is a long game. Maybe things will change in 5-10 years. Remember what happened to late Vijayakanth (DMDK founder). He was projected as an ‘alcoholic’ and finished off,” says Subin, a BJP supporter. He and his friends waited for three hours to see Vijay during his roadshow. “Many of Vijay’s supporters are in college and may not be eligible to vote this time but things will change in the next 10 years. Our parents at home still support DMK or AIADMK, we are trying to convince them,” says a young couple on a two-wheeler. In neighbouring Tirunelveli, a contractor Selvan says, smilingly: “I have four votes at home. Both my daughters and wife are saying they will vote for Vijay. They are pestering me to do the same, I can’t enter my home.” The mainstream parties are aware of this churn among the youth and in Chritian belts. Their candidate selection has also reflected it. For instance, in Colachel, a coastal constituency in Kanniyakumari, the Congress has fielded its Vilavancode MLA Tharahai Cuthbert, who belongs to the Christian fisher community. The party had not fielded a candidate from this group for the last six decades. “The Vijay factor is not much in Kanniyakumari. Yes, there are certain pockets where youngsters are getting carried away, there are a few women voters also. But overall the DMK-led alliance is very strong, the Congress is also very strong,” Kanniyakumari MP from the Congress, Vijay Vasanth, tells The Indian Express. The AIADMK and its ally BJP, too, make similar claims. A senior DMK minister, however, tells the Express: “There is an inter-generational fight happening in almost every house. This may not be his (Vijay’s) election, but if he stays for another five years the political landscape could change.” Christians account for 48% of the population in Kanniyakumari district, who play a key role in determining the outcome in its six Assembly seats. Besides the Congress and DMK, the BJP and AIADMK also have strong bases in the district, where Nadars make up a substantial chunk of Hindu voters. The Christian and Muslim bodies are, however, said to be leaning towards the DMK-Congress alliance as they still do not see Vijay as a “credible alternative” to it in the battle against the BJP coalition. Vijay seems to have displayed a shrewd game plan for the polls. In Tirunelveli’s Nanguneri, he has fielded Rettiyapatti Narayanan, a former AIADMK MLA who was denied ticket by his party as the constituency went to T T V Dinakaran’s AMMK in the NDA alliance’s seat-sharing pact. In Tirunelveli, a seat won by the BJP’s Nainar Nagenthran in the previous election, the TVK has fielded R S Murugan, a money bag. In these seats, the demography of Vijay’s supporters shifts as both his candidates are established leaders with a captive vote base. Another Congress leader says: “We have to accept that youth, including women and students, are all crazy about Vijay. Those who are seeking a change in the established system might vote for him. He will get around 12-15 % votes, but his winning probability is less.” The talk everywhere is about the vote share the TVK would get. His youth followers echo his line calling for change while accusing both the DMK and AIADMK of “looting the state”. However, his detractors are dismissive, saying “Vijay has money. So he was able to form a party. He is not someone who has struggled to come up in politics. So this talk about change, new system and all, is bunkum.” The TVK seems to realise its limitations. “In every house we have a captain, a Vijay. So they themselves will convince their parents, grandparents – we are not worried,” TVK leader S R Madhavan tells the Express. Its lack of structure at the grassroots level remains a challenge for the TVK. In close contests where booth-level strength matters, established parties have an advantage. As the campaign heats up, the buzz everywhere is about “avan vote pirikkum” (he will split the votes), defining Vijay’s role. Both the alliances believe that this would help them clinch the polls. Manoj C G currently serves as the Chief of National Political Bureau at ... Read More