How the Premier League's 40-point mark became important again

AFC BournemouthArsenalAston VillaBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBurnleyChelseaCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamLeeds UnitedLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenham HotspurWest Ham UnitedWolverhampton WanderersScores & ScheduleStandingsFantasyThe Athletic FC NewsletterPodcastsPerez Wants Mourinho BackPSG vs. Bayern Munich ReactionsGordon's Newcastle FutureUCL Semi-Final PredictionsInside Kompany’s SuccessRelegation West Ham's late win against Everton took them to 36 points with four games remaining Warren Little/Getty Images Share articleForty. Mid-life crisis triggering for some, sweet relief for Premier League managers. It is the long-established safety benchmark, the points tally at which top-flight status for the following year is considered secure and attention can turn to loftier ambitions. This season, however, that assumption stands on much shakier ground. With four games remaining, Tottenham Hotspur sit 18th with 34 points, two fewer than West Ham directly above them. Both won at the weekend, Spurs beating Wolves 1-0 away, while Everton were defeated 2-1 at the London Stadium thanks to a stoppage-time winner from Callum Wilson. With momentum behind them, these two could smash this 40-point dotted-line ceiling over the coming month. Already, they are operating at an unusually strong pace for sides in a relegation battle. Tottenham’s one point per game total may seem paltry, but teams in 18th typically have even fewer points at this stage of a season. Of all 18th-placed sides this century, only Birmingham City have had more than that with four games remaining, getting to 38 points during their doomed 2010-11 season. They collected just one more in their remaining fixtures, finishing one point behind fourth-bottom Wolves. That Spurs tally is thrown into sharp relief when set against more recent seasons, where the survival threshold has massively deflated. Luton Town’s 25 points were a record low for 18th at this stage in 2023-24, before Leicester City plunged to new depths last year with just 18. It feels increasingly likely that either Tottenham or West Ham will be condemned to that final relegation spot, joining Burnley and Wolves in the Championship next season. For West Ham, this unusually high bar for survival brings back familiar, and painful, memories. For they were the last exception to the 40-point rule, getting relegated with 42 in 2002-03. That remains the highest total for an 18th-placed side in a 38-game season, with Coventry City (1995-96) and Bolton Wanderers (1997-98) the only other sides to have succumbed despite reaching 40. Head coach Nuno Espirito Santo is unlikely to concern himself with events from 23 years ago, focusing instead on his side’s current form. Saturday’s late win means his lads have taken 22 points since the turn of the year, the seventh-highest total across the Premier League. Back in 2003, West Ham’s late surge came too late. Under club legend Trevor Brooking, who took charge as caretaker manager towards the end of the season, they collected 10 of the final 12 points available, the highest total from the last four games by a relegated side, with wins over Middlesbrough, Manchester City and Chelsea. West Ham were unlucky; this is usually the sort of run that keeps you up. The graphic below shows how a team’s points per game shift in the final four fixtures of the season compared to the rest of the campaign. Admittedly from a low base, the team who finish 17th improve by an average of 0.23 points per game over this stretch, a bigger increase than any other side in the division. These runs have powered some of the Premier League’s most memorable great escapes. Fulham won their final three matches in 2007-08, squeezing past Reading on goal difference to stay up. The following season, Sunderland condemned their neighbours and arch-rivals Newcastle to relegation by taking eight of the last 12 available points. League champions, meanwhile, show the second-largest drop-off, illustrating how contrasting motivations shape the run-in, with title winners easing off as those near the drop zone are raising their levels in desperation. Tottenham last season were one of the few 17th-placed sides not to enjoy this late boost, taking just one point from their final four games. That is grim reading for Spurs fans desperate for late salvation in the coming weeks, but there is important context here. They were already safe at this stage last season, with the bottom three posting miserly points totals, and instead focused their complete attention on winning the Europa League. This time, there are no such distractions for Tottenham or West Ham, with the scrap for survival dominating every thought. Their inability to pull clear despite an above-average points total for their position reflects a more competitive Premier League landscape. That is highlighted by the average margin of victory this season, which at 1.71 goals, is the lowest since 2014-15. Neither West Ham nor Spurs can afford to complain or curse their luck, though. The 40-point safety mark is often referred to as “magic”, but there is nothing mystical about the cold, brutal reality that they both face. This total has always been an illusory, arbitrary concept, one that may prove unreliable yet again as this captivating relegation battle comes to a close. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms