How the Padres are handling Mason Miller and one of baseball's most precious arms

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It was late Friday at T-Mobile Park, where Miller had struck out four batters, permitted three base runners and thrown 34 pitches in a shutout of the Seattle Mariners. He’d pitched only once across the past five days. And, for perhaps the third time this season, he’d resembled something other than maybe the most unhittable late-game pitcher of all time. “I think it’s just inconsistency, really,” Miller said. “That could be a result of workload. You know, I threw a ton. It was the most innings I’ve ever thrown in a month in April. And I feel great, but sometimes you feel great and there’s some responses too.” As much as any variable, how the Padres respond to what Miller says this year — with his words and his right arm — could determine whether they advance to a third consecutive postseason. San Diego enter Sunday with three of its biggest stars — Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. — off to the worst offensive starts of their respective careers. Tatis, once a feared slugger, is up to 188 plate appearances without a home run. And yet, the Padres have gone 27-18 while coming to life deep into close games. They lead the majors with 39 runs scored in the ninth inning or later. They also rank first, by a wide margin, with a 0.44 ERA in the same time frame. Miller, of course, is largely responsible for that number. And the Padres believe it is relatively sustainable — as long as Miller stays upright. “We’re trying to make sure that we keep it in perspective that this guy’s really important for us for the season,” said Padres pitching coach and associate manager Ruben Niebla. Before May, Miller made 15 appearances, two more than his previous high for a calendar month. He also averaged an efficient 14 pitches per inning, overwhelming opposing batters and, amid elevated usage, supplying some comfort to the coaching staff. As he has for years, Niebla simultaneously tracks other numbers and biomechanical markers that indicate when his pitchers might be fatiguing or contending with a hidden injury. Those indicators include velocity, spin metrics, arm slot and overcompensation in a delivery. The picture that emerges, Niebla says, is far more useful than a simple accounting of pitches and innings. “It’s more being able to look at science and the data to be able to give you a more holistic approach,” Niebla said. “Obviously, the primary thing is the conversation with the pitcher and how he’s doing, but a lot of times, you also have to trust the medical and the strength (departments).” Since the beginning of last season, the Padres have mostly avoided significant injury to the high-leverage relievers who comprise the strength of the roster. When Jason Adam suffered a ruptured quad tendon in September — “a fluke injury,” Niebla said — the All-Star setup man was tied for sixth in the majors in appearances. So were Estrada and All-Star left-hander Adrian Morejon. Adam returned from reparative surgery in April and, despite diminished velocity, has remained effective. Morejon, despite some poor luck, is throwing harder than ever. Estrada made a trip to the injured list last month after his velocity plummeted, but since returning, he has looked more like his usual self. “We feel very comfortable with our process right now,” Niebla said. “I don’t think that last year any of those guys were put in any vulnerable situation, because they were getting the appropriate days off. … It also gave us an opportunity to really lean on them when we needed to. And we did that.” Time will tell how Miller responds to the same process. So far, the results have appeared unassailable. Acquired last summer from the Athletics, Miller has not surrendered an extra-base hit since Aug. 5, his second appearance with the Padres. He has already set the franchise’s record for consecutive scoreless innings. His Baseball Savant page is a study in historic dominance. Lately, though, Miller has shown more signs of being human. On April 27, a blown call helped the Chicago Cubs scratch across two runs against him. On May 9, he issued two walks for the first time this season. Friday, he navigated a four-out save while throwing his most pitches in a game since September 2024. “Definitely, you want to preserve him for the whole season,” said Padres manager Craig Stammen, a former reliever himself. “And yet, you want to win a game in the moment, which is difficult to make a decision between those two things when that type of situation is going on.” Natural regression likely explains some of Miller’s recent blips. Of course, a substantial workload could be another reason. “I mean, we’re playing a ton of close games, so it’s kind of just answering the bell,” said Miller, who sprained his UCL in 2023, prompting the A’s to move him to the bullpen upon his return. “And I came out of the gates (this season) really strong, commanding the zone, filling it up. I kind of have gotten away from that recently, which obviously I’m aware of as much as everybody else. But yeah, just kind of embracing that mentality of just getting your team to the end.” During Saturday’s 7-4 win against the Mariners, the Padres gave Miller a necessary break. “It’s really having the open dialogue and then letting him know ahead of time, on a day like today, that he’s down,” Niebla said before the game. “He can take the day and relax and just really focus on recovery.” With Miller off, the Padres broke from convention in more ways than one. Machado, Merrill and Tatis again went hitless, but Gavin Sheets, Nick Castellanos and Rodolfo Durán all homered for one of the majors’ lightest-slugging teams. When the Mariners sent the tying run to the on-deck circle in the eighth, Morejon took the mound. He retired the next three batters before Estrada secured his first save since last July. For San Diego, it was a display of the luxury of having a deep bullpen. Still, the Padres must score more often to protect their most valuable arm. Miller is on pace for 77 innings, a dozen more than he’s ever thrown in a season. “He’s willing to help the team win in any manner he can,” Niebla said. “There are days that he wants the ball, and we’re trying to make the decision (that) if you are going to take the ball, it’s only going to be for the ninth inning, and that’s it. There is a lot of days, actually a high percentage of days, where we only have him available for three outs.” Miller, on the other end of the conversation, frames the trade-off in similar terms. “It’s never like the game plan and situation (is), ‘Hey, we want to use you for four outs today,’” he said. “It’s just kind of like game situations come, and you don’t really want to get to the end of the game and not have fired me when you have a chance to win the game. So, I think that’s something we’re all aware of, and the communication has been good. And obviously, it’s something I’m prepared to do and excited for when I get the opportunity.” Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms