Hormuz hangs in balance as Trump eyes quick Iran exit

DUBAI 22°CGOLD/FOREXPRAYER TIMESNEWSLETTERSLOGIN GOLD/FOREXDUBAI 22°CPRAYER TIMES WORLDWORLDGULFMENAEUROPEAFRICAAMERICASASIAAUSTRALIA-NEW ZEALANDCORRECTIONS World / MenaHormuz hangs in balance as Trump eyes quick Iran exitUS signals war may end soon even as Hormuz remains unresolved Dubai: Signs are growing that Donald Trump may be preparing to wind down the war with Iran — even as the fate of the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved — raising the risk that a quick exit could translate into a strategic setback. According to CNN, US officials have indicated Washington may not take responsibility for restoring free navigation through the vital oil route, even as Trump predicts the conflict could end within weeks. That leaves a central question: What defines victory? If Iran retains control or leverage over Hormuz — a chokepoint for a significant share of global oil shipments — it could claim a strategic win despite suffering heavy military losses in US and Israeli strikes. Trump’s messaging on the war’s endgame has been inconsistent. According to Axios, he has repeatedly suggested the war could end “soon,” at times even declaring it effectively won, despite the conflict entering its fifth week with around 50,000 US troops deployed in the region. In recent days, Trump has warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is not “open for business,” the United States could escalate strikes on Iran’s energy and infrastructure — even as he simultaneously signals the war may be nearing its conclusion. Hormuz control: Iran retaining leverage over the Strait of Hormuz could reshape global oil flows Strategic narrative: US may claim success, but Tehran could frame outcome as a geopolitical win Economic shock: Oil disruption risks price spikes, inflation and recession fears Allies under strain: Nato and European partners face fallout despite staying out of conflict No clear off-ramp: Ending the war without securing Hormuz leaves a volatile status quo The mixed messaging reflects the tension between military realities and political pressure, as Washington weighs how to end the conflict without appearing to fall short of its objectives. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has suggested core goals such as “regime change” have been achieved, even though Iran’s leadership structure remains intact — highlighting how the definition of success is evolving. The urgency to end the war is also being shaped by economic factors. Disruption around Hormuz is already pushing up oil prices, raising concerns about inflation and a broader global economic shock. Analysts warn that prolonged instability could trigger recession risks across multiple regions. “Oil prices are global,” Rosemary Kelanic told CNN, noting that supply disruptions would affect consumers worldwide — including in the United States. The conflict is also straining alliances. European countries that stayed out of the war now face rising energy costs and economic pressure, according to CNN, while tensions within NATO have deepened over differing responses to the conflict. At the same time, there is little appetite among US allies for deeper military involvement, and limited capacity to secure Hormuz independently without American leadership. Despite speculation over a US pullback, Washington is unlikely to abandon Israel, given deep security ties and strong domestic backing — including support from evangelical voters. However, any shift in US strategy could leave Israel carrying more of the operational burden, especially if the focus turns to ending the war quickly rather than expanding it. As the war enters its fifth week, the growing US troop presence raises fresh questions about the endgame. Tens of thousands of personnel have been deployed even as Washington signals a possible exit. A rapid wind-down without securing the Strait of Hormuz could leave troops in a grey zone — no longer in active combat, but still exposed to retaliation and regional instability. For Washington, the choice is increasingly stark: end the war quickly and risk leaving a critical global chokepoint under Iranian influence — or escalate further with uncertain military and political consequences. As CNN analysis suggests, political narratives may frame almost any outcome as success. But the strategic and economic realities — from oil markets to alliance stability — may prove far harder to manage. Why Hormuz risks a repeat of dangerous Tanker War past Not NATO’s war: Germany, UK push back on Trump pressure Two weeks on, Trump scrambles as Iran war escalates Mideast war 'largest oil supply disruption in history'