Has Trump blinked on Iran? US edges towards Tehran’s terms for ending conflict

Dubai: The United States appears to be moving closer to accepting Iran’s phased roadmap for ending the war with Iran, marking a major shift in Washington’s position after weeks of military escalation, failed pressure tactics and growing fears over the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

The diplomatic pivot became clearer after US President Donald Trump abruptly paused “Project Freedom” — the American naval mission launched just days earlier to escort stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump said the operation was being paused following “great progress” towards an agreement with Iran and after requests from Pakistan and other countries. Multiple media reports said that Washington and Tehran are now closing in on a one-page memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and reopening the vital waterway.

The shift comes after months of conflict that began when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, triggering Iranian retaliation across the Gulf and the effective closure of Hormuz — the route through which around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass.

Iran’s sequencing demands

For weeks, Washington had insisted that any agreement with Tehran must include major concessions on Iran’s nuclear programme, including dismantling facilities and surrendering highly enriched uranium.

But recent statements from US officials suggest the White House may now be accepting Iran’s sequencing demands: End the war first, stabilise Hormuz and then negotiate over the nuclear issue later.

Speaking on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared the military phase of “Operation Epic Fury” concluded and said Washington was now seeking a “memorandum of understanding for future negotiations”.

According to Al Jazeera, that is precisely the framework Iran has been demanding through proposals passed to Washington via Pakistani mediators.

Iran’s latest proposal reportedly calls for:

A 30-day process to end the war

Gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

Lifting parts of the US naval blockade

Release of frozen Iranian assets

Sanctions relief

Delaying detailed nuclear negotiations until later stages

Reuters, citing sources familiar with the talks, reported that the proposed 14-point memorandum would formally end the war while creating a temporary framework for negotiations over Hormuz, sanctions and Iran’s nuclear activities.

Sudden diplomatic momentum

The proposed agreement would also reportedly involve a moratorium on nuclear enrichment during talks, phased easing of restrictions around Hormuz and partial sanctions relief.

Pakistan’s role as a mediator has become increasingly important in recent days, with Islamabad maintaining direct contact with both Washington and Tehran.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif welcomed Trump’s decision to pause the Hormuz naval operation and said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had also encouraged efforts to avoid escalation.

The sudden diplomatic momentum comes after Project Freedom struggled to achieve its main objective.

The US mission, launched Sunday, aimed to restore commercial shipping through Hormuz using American naval protection. But the operation quickly triggered fresh confrontations.

Mission exposes the limits of military pressure

Iranian forces fired missiles and drones at ships and targets linked to the United States and its Gulf allies, while Iran warned that vessels could only pass through the strait under Tehran-approved procedures.

US officials acknowledged attacks on ships and confirmed military engagements in and around Hormuz, although Washington stopped short of restarting large-scale combat operations.

Analysts say the mission exposed the limits of military pressure.

Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group told the BBC that the operation was “not going to solve the problem” and risked dragging Trump back into war.

Al Jazeera quoted Tehran-based analyst Seyed Mojtaba Jalalzadeh as saying Washington was slowly recognising that “the balance of deterrence is currently skewed in Iran’s favour”.

Not relalistic

Andreas Krieg of King’s College London described the emerging US position as a “meaningful concession” because Washington appeared to have accepted that resolving the war, Hormuz and the nuclear issue simultaneously was no longer realistic.

Still, major disagreements remain.

Iran continues to insist on a “new mechanism” governing Hormuz — language Washington fears could effectively legitimize Iranian control over one of the world’s most strategic waterways.

Rubio has rejected any arrangement that would require ships to coordinate passage or pay what he described as “tolls” to Iran.

At the same time, Gulf states are increasing pressure for a settlement.

China's role

Saudi Arabia has publicly backed Pakistan’s mediation efforts and called for Hormuz to return to its pre-war status with unconditional freedom of navigation.

China has also entered the diplomatic picture. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Beijing on Wednesday for talks with Chinese officials just days before Trump’s scheduled summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Beijing, which buys the majority of Iran’s exported oil, has resisted US pressure to squeeze Tehran further while also pushing for de-escalation to protect energy supplies and regional stability.

For now, diplomats appear focused on securing a limited framework agreement rather than a grand bargain.

As Andreas Krieg told Al Jazeera: “The timetable increases the chances of a limited deal, but lowers the chances of a grand agreement.”