Everton-Liverpool predictions: Why first Merseyside derby at Hill Dickinson is so important

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For Liverpool, securing their place in the Champions League next season is a must after a woeful title defence. And that is all Arne Slot’s team have left to play for following a 4-0 aggregate quarter-final defeat by European champions Paris Saint-Germain in midweek. Here, The Athletic’s Everton writer Patrick Boyland and his Liverpool counterpart Andy Jones make their predictions. Boyland: I’m not sure ‘nervous’ is the right word. There have been derby games in the recent past — I’m thinking in particular of the April 2024 fixture — where Everton were battling relegation and urgently needed a result. And, even after that 2-0 win at Goodison Park, I remember fearing for the club’s future as the ill-fated takeover by 777 Partners limped on. Beyond the initial adrenaline rush, I struggled to derive much extra enjoyment from that derby victory given the turmoil engulfing the club. What we have now, two years on, is a different, altogether more optimistic Everton. In the context of what has come before, discussion of an admittedly ambitious late Champions League push feels like a privilege. I’m sure there will be some nerves from fans pre-match. These games always matter and there is still a lot riding on it from an Everton perspective. But it’s hard not to look at how far the club have come in such a short space of time. Sunday’s game should be seen as a big opportunity to cement that progress. Jones: If the scale is 1-10 with 10 being the most nervous, I’m at 11. For a while, this game has filled me with dread whenever I’ve thought about. That may be my pessimism shining through, but the away derby has often been a tricky fixture, even when Liverpool have been at their best. Slot’s side are nowhere near those levels and have frequently crumbled at the first sign of adversity this season. Game to game, you just do not know what version of Liverpool is going to turn up. Couple that with an Everton side and crowd that will be smelling blood, and it being the first derby at Hill Dickinson, and the question is whether Liverpool can summon a performance, or will suffer through another painful 90 minutes. Boyland: Overwhelmingly positive. Moyes targeted a push for Europe at the start of the campaign, but it was pretty clear to me that even the Scot thought that might be a step too far. With six games left, Everton remarkably still have an outside chance of Champions League football. Europa League and Conference League are still both firmly within their grasp. It feels like they are at least one step ahead of where they should be right now, given the flaws in the squad and how early we are in this rebuild. But they have to find a way of getting over the line. From where Everton are right now, missing out on Europe altogether would be a blow. Jones: A huge disappointment. It has not felt like Liverpool are reigning Premier League champions. After a summer outlay of just short of £450million, expectations were high. Retaining the title and going much further in Europe were the aims — instead Liverpool will end the season trophyless and fighting to secure a Champions League place. There are a number of reasons why. New signings have taken time to settle, injuries have hit hard, impacting the fitness of others, and players key to last season’s title success have underperformed. Slot has struggled to find the answers required to turn their fortunes around. Liverpool are now clouded with uncertainty. Boyland: Iliman Ndiaye. The Senegal winger is Everton’s most gifted attacking player by some distance, and often the key to unlocking the league’s best defences. In the absence of the injured Jack Grealish, he’ll likely play in his favoured left-flank role against right-back Jeremie Frimpong. Ndiaye and Everton will fancy their chances of gaining the upper hand there. The scorer of the final goal at Goodison and the first strike at Hill Dickinson, Ndiaye has a habit of writing his name into the history books. He has another chance to do that on Sunday. Jones: There’s a number of candidates, but none of Liverpool’s game-changers are in top form. The obvious answer is Mohamed Salah. The 33-year-old will be keen to leave his mark on his final Merseyside derby, and there will be a determination to score at Everton’s new stadium too. This game could be the perfect stage for a Florian Wirtz breakthrough performance where he grabs the game by the scruff of the neck. That’s the next step the Germany international has to make. It is unclear how Alexander Isak will be used, while the wildcard is the 17-year-old Rio Ngumoha. How involved he will be is tough to predict, but his dynamism offers Liverpool a different attacking dimension. Boyland: That it can still replicate the best of Goodison when Everton are in the ascendancy. The impressive 3-0 win against Chelsea just before the long break was testament to that. Everything clicked for Everton on and off the pitch that day, and it needs to be a blueprint moving forward for big games. Beyond that, I’d advise those who are able to do so, weather permitting, to make the circa 1.5 mile walk from town to the stadium, avoiding the busier train stations to the north and gridlocked traffic. On a nice day, it’s a lovely stroll that takes in the city’s waterfront and showcases the potential of the North Docks area. It is brimming with promise but underdeveloped, with much work still to be done on the local infrastructure. In time, it should look vastly different. Boyland: A lot in a number of ways. During his two stints at the club, Moyes has often used Liverpool as a reference point. The aim has been to compete with the club’s city rivals and, given their strength, seasons where Everton finished ahead of them were usually deemed to be a big success. Beyond the obvious bragging rights, it would also mean a place in Europe has almost certainly been secured. And that is the bigger prize on offer here. With the exception of the derbies themselves, Everton have not been Liverpool’s business in recent years. Liverpool have not finished below their neighbours since 2012-13, when Brendan Rodgers was in charge. That has changed this season due to Liverpool’s regression and the excellent job that Moyes has done. The distance between the sides feels the closest it has been in some time. Finishing below Everton would almost certainly guarantee Liverpool would not finish in the top five and that would result in them failing to achieve their bare minimum objective at the start of each season. It has been such a poor season for Liverpool. Trailing their rivals in the table would be the ultimate hammer blow. Boyland: This is pretty standard Evertonian pessimism, but the games that worry me are the ones where they head in on something approaching level footing. Everton tend not to deal well with being favourites, particularly against Liverpool. And Moyes’ record in derbies is not great, either (he has won just four of 28 meetings with Liverpool when managing Everton). The two clubs still operate in different leagues financially, with Isak and Wirtz costing far more on their own than the Everton team combined. So the gap between the sides at present feels smaller than it should be. You can’t discount one of Liverpool’s big-money signings making the difference, but there is also a decent chance that Ndiaye or Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall grabs the game by the scruff of the neck too. Both sides have weaknesses that can be exploited. 2-2, just like the final Goodison derby. I can feel the splinters already. Jones: Well, they do say form goes out the window for the derby and this is one where I hope that is the case, because Liverpool have only won one of their past five matches in all competitions. Both sides have difference-makers, but it will come down to who earns the right to play. It is a game that is going to require intensity, grit and aggression, and I’ve got to hope Liverpool are up for the challenge. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms