Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings 2026 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs preview

AtlanticBruinsCanadiensLightningMaple LeafsPanthersRed WingsSabresSenatorsMetropolitanBlue JacketsCapitalsDevilsFlyersHurricanesIslandersPenguinsRangersCentralAvalancheBlackhawksBluesJetsMammothPredatorsStarsWildPacificCanucksDucksFlamesGolden KnightsKingsKrakenOilersSharksScores & ScheduleStandingsPodcastsFantasyNHL OddsNHL PicksPlayoff projectionsNHL Draft rankingRed Light NewsletterNHL Playoffs Colorado has Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. The Kings do not. That's probably enough to make this a quick series. Matthew Stockman / Getty Images Share articleThe Los Angeles Kings are playing a first-round series against an opponent other than the Edmonton Oilers. Our international nightmare is over. Another bad dream, though, might begin shortly for the Kings. After four increasingly non-competitive eliminations courtesy of Connor, Leon and Co., they’ve drawn the best team of the regular season, and one that seems more than ready to extend their list of April exits. Does L.A. have a shot? We’ll do our best to figure it out. And if things go as expected, at least we’ll have added some variety to the mix. Every playoff team has a shot, no matter how mid (or actually bad) they are. This is hockey; stuff happens. Even a seven-game series can be heavily influenced by luck. The lower echelon for that is generally right where the Kings currently stand; it’s difficult for a playoff team to start a series lower than 20 percent. Even with that, it feels uniquely difficult to envision an upset in this series based on everything we’ve seen from both teams going back several seasons. This year, the Avalanche couldn’t stop winning; the Kings couldn’t stop stepping on rakes as they bumbled into the postseason. Over the past several playoffs, the Avalanche and Kings both have well-earned reputations: One as a team that can go all the way and the other that just doesn’t have what it takes to go anywhere. Can that change? Maybe. More likely: This series ends exactly as you’d expect. Quickly. The numbers are unsurprisingly lopsided. Colorado’s plus-80 Net Rating is a combination of overwhelming offense and strong defense. The Kings, known for their structure, are no pushovers with a plus-18 Defensive Rating; it’s just their play on the other end of the ice that falls short. And that rings true at five-on-five. The Avs lead the league with a 57 percent xG rate. The Kings aren’t that far off thanks to their xG suppression, but the differences stem from offense. The Avs are dynamic. Colorado thrives off the rush and can sustain pressure with a strong cycle game to dominate zone time. A mobile blue line helps facilitate that. The Kings have a mix of rush-based attackers and some good forecheckers, but their blueliners come with more risk. To L.A.’s credit, the team has made some improvements since a coaching change in early March. The defense has been solid and the offense is on the rise — just not to the degree of the Avalanche. It just hasn’t translated to the power play. Neither of these teams is an ace on the advantage this year. The Kings have upped their game down the stretch, but aren’t converting enough. They will be tested against an Avs penalty kill that doesn’t allow many chances, and has even better goaltending. Colorado’s power play still isn’t elite, but it’s trending in the right direction. The Avalanche should have their chances to build on that in this series against a penalty kill that struggles to keep the puck out of the net. How the hell do the Kings win this? Generally speaking, the preview-writing game isn’t all that demanding. In situations such as this, though, the road can get a little rocky. Any outcome in any series is theoretically possible — “That’s why they play the games,” as a wise man once said — but Avs-Kings comes about as close as you can to challenging that principle. In Colorado, we’ve got a team that started the season on a record-breaking pace, wobbled a bit in January and then won 11 of its last 15 games. All systems go. The Kings, meanwhile, deserve some credit for scraping enough points together down the stretch to secure the second wild card; they also tied with the Chicago Blackhawks for the second-fewest regulation wins in the league. That’s 11 fewer than the St. Louis Blues, six fewer than the Nashville Predators and five fewer than the San Jose Sharks — the teams that finished immediately behind them in the wild-card standings. Mix in overtime victories and the Kings are still third from the bottom. Their minus-22 goal differential is worse than five non-qualifiers. The fact that they’re in the playoffs at all borders on absurd. Another issue: We know who the Kings are because they’ve spent the last four springs showing us — a team juuuust lucky enough to slip into the postseason and get summarily stomped by an actual contender. This year, that responsibility falls to the Avs. Edmonton had a good run, but all of us (and even Kings fans would agree) are ready for a variation on the theme. With that said, and in the interest of fairness and/or base-covering, we’ve come up with a three-point plan the Kings have to follow if they’re going to make this interesting. 1. Get some goaltending voodoo. We’ve seen worse netminders than Anton Forsberg go into super-saiyan mode and steal a few games from a superior opponent. Since the Olympic break, Forsberg is seventh in the NHL in save percentage (.920) and 15th in goals saved above expected. Another option for the Kings: Throw in Darcy Kuemper and hope a) he’s got secret knowledge of his ex-teammates’ tendencies and b) he’s capable of putting that knowledge into action. Not likely, but what can you do? 2. Knock in some power-play goals. Scoring with the man advantage has been tough for the Kings — they were 28th in the league in power-play goals per 60 (6.0). They were better, though, at generating chances, finishing ninth in shots per 60 and 14th in expected goals. A few well-timed, lucky bounces, and who knows? 3. Make it an Anze Kopitar legacy series. The future Hall of Famer’s final season has been the least productive of his career; 1.78 points per 60 is his lowest output ever and the first time he’s dipped below 2.39 since 2018-19. He’s still a valuable defensive player, and if he can turn the clock halfway back to 2012, it’d count for something. Can Gabriel Landeskog stay healthy? Colorado beamed with excitement over Landeskog’s return last spring. But whether he could jump back into action, Stanley Cup playoff action no less, after missing three seasons was a real wild-card question for the Avalanche. Understandably, he didn’t return as the peak version of himself from seasons past. But over the past year, he has proven that he can be a true spark with top-six caliber play. In the regular season, Landeskog boosted the Avs’ all-three-zone play, with his defensive puck touches and breakouts, to his forechecking and overall offensive influence. Add in his aura to the locker room, and his value has been undeniable. That qualifier still exists, because Landeskog has been sidelined a couple times this year — with an upper-body injury in January, then a lower-body ailment in March. And his absence, again, left a hole in the lineup. With him in the fold, the Avs have dominated games with a 45-7-8 record. So unlike last year, the question isn’t what he has left in the tank — that’s clear from his 60 regular-season games. It’s whether he can stay healthy, because his presence is clearly a difference-maker. Here’s the best (and possibly funniest) way to break down what the Kings are up against and what the difference between these two teams is. If the Kings could trade their worst forward, Samuel Helenius, and their worst defenseman, Cody Ceci, for clones of Colorado’s best, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, this might be an even series. The rest of Colorado’s forwards and defensemen add up to a plus-21 Net Rating, while the rest of Los Angeles’ forwards and defensemen add up to plus-18. Just a casual two-for-two swap of a team’s worst players for two of the best in the world, that’s all it takes! This is a similar problem to the one the Kings have run into in each of the last four playoffs against the Oilers. Edmonton had Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Kings did not. That’s the ballgame. This time around, Colorado has MacKinnon and Makar. The Kings do not. That’s also probably going to be the ballgame. The difference is that the Avalanche can not only go pound-for-pound, but the rest of the team might also be better. Against the Oilers, you could squint at their usually weak depth and think, “Ehhh, maybe the Kings can win the other matchups.” Is that true here? Ehhh, probably not. The depth that Colorado has amassed over the past few years to get to this point has been astounding. The Avalanche are popular picks to win it all for good reason. Martin Necas has filled the Mikko Rantanen role as seamlessly as possible after scoring 100 points. Jack Drury wasn’t just a throw-in; he was one of the best bottom-six defensive centers in the league this season with a plus-5.5 Defensive Rating. Brock Nelson has answered Colorado’s prayers as the 2C this team has been missing since Nazem Kadri left, putting up elite defensive numbers to go with a 65-point season. Speaking of Kadri, he’s back, adding a jolt to the power play. With Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin holding over and a healthy Landeskog, Colorado’s top nine looks as beefy as ever. Compare that to the Kings, whose calling card has long been a stacked top nine that only seems to dwindle each season. The Kings used to have eight or nine above-average forwards according to Net Rating; they currently have just six. If Andrei Kuzmenko is out for the series, the gap between the top six and bottom six ends up being pretty pronounced, too, making the Kings a more top-heavy team than usual. That’s pretty bad news when the top looks like, well, this. To Los Angeles’ credit, acquiring Artemi Panarin made everything look a lot better. If Kevin Fiala were healthy, maybe things would be different. The same goes for if Kopitar were 5-10 years younger, or if Quinton Byfield took the leap. But that’s not the case, and what’s here looks like a great sidekick and a nice second layer masquerading as top dogs. The Kings have just two forwards who scored 55 points-per-82 or more. Against Colorado, that has a high chance of being exposed, as is usually the case for Los Angeles in this setting. The fact that Panarin has shown a tendency to wilt when it matters most also isn’t ideal. On defense, it’s a similar problem. Even if you ignore Makar, there’s still a bit more to like on Colorado’s side. The continued excellence of Devon Toews and the meteoric rise of Sam Malinski have kept Colorado’s top four in tip-top shape. Brent Burns’ agelessness and Josh Manson’s rugged play give the Avalanche serious depth. This year, all five defensemen had a Net Rating higher than plus-9. Among Kings that were there all season, only Brandt Clarke could say the same — for both forwards and defensemen. Clarke has blossomed this season and is becoming a legit No. 1 before our eyes. His puck-moving ability and offense have been excellent and he’s cleaned up a lot without the puck. Drew Doughty is still a valuable two-way presence and Mikey Anderson remains one of the league’s top defensive defenders. If the Kings didn’t trade their own Malinski last summer, Jordan Spence, they might have something. It’s a good trio, but it still falls short of Colorado’s No. 2 to No. 4 options. Beyond them, it’s even bleaker with the almighty triumvirate of Joel Edmundson, Brian Dumoulin, and Cody Ceci — three bottom-pair guys. All three were outscored or out-chanced this season. Or in Ceci’s case, both. The Kings probably won’t have a saving grace in net either, because the two best goalies in this series are both in Colorado. Regardless of who the Avalanche start, Scott Wedgewood or MacKenzie Blackwood, the Avalanche have the edge. Over the past two seasons, Wedgewood and Blackwood have both saved over 20 goals above expected per 82 games, better than both Kings goalies. Forsberg, Los Angeles’ presumed starter, is at 9.5 and while Kuemper sits at 15 goals saved, he’s sagged immensely this season to minus-4.6 over 50 games. The Avalanche have a lot of avenues to win here, from star-power to depth to offense to defense to goaltending. It would take a lot going wrong for the Kings to pull off the upset. Martin Necas vs. Artemi Panarin If you like high-end playmaking wingers, this might be the series for you. Necas put a bow on the first 100-point season of his career — not coincidentally, his first as MacKinnon’s primary winger. Necas is a well-rounded offensive player who’s capable of handling his share of puck-carrying, even with MacKinnon on the ice. In terms of generating shots and scoring chances, he’s one of the most effective passers in the league. The most impressive thing about Necas, though, is that he’s been a more-than-adequate replacement for Rantanen — and that’s no knock on Rantanen. Panarin, meanwhile, has produced at a nearly identical level this season with the Rangers (3.1 points per 60, 1.1 goal) and Kings (3 points per 60, 1 goal), and L.A. has won his minutes decisively (27-15, 53 percent expected goal share). The issue is that the Avs are even better with Necas on the ice (90-40, 55 percent expected goal share), illustrating the edge they have at the top of the lineup. The Kings may have escaped another Round 1 matchup against the Oilers. But the reward is going head-to-head with the most dominant team in the regular season. Anything can happen in the playoffs, but the Avalanche are a force — it’s their series to lose. How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty  Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms