Climate change reshaping carbon storage in India’s forests: IITM-Pune study

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Written by: Anuradha Mascarenhas4 min readApr 21, 2026 09:02 AM IST In the image, Mareena Mathew, Roxy Mathew Koll and FItha Fathima from left to right. (Express Photo) Make us preferred source on Google Whatsapp twitter Facebook Reddit PRINT India’s forests are an important carbon sink, helping remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it in living vegetation such as trunks, branches, leaves, and roots. But how this carbon storage will change in a warming world has remained unclear. A new study at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM),Pune shows how climate change is reshaping carbon storage across India’s forests. The study led by Fitha Fathima, Mareena Mathew, and Roxy Mathew Koll from IITM-Pune has been published in Environmental Research: Climate and explores how forest carbon may change across the recent past, near future, mid-century, and late century under low, medium, and high fossil fuel emissions pathways. The study finds that the carbon stored in India’s living forest vegetation is projected to increase across all major forest regions of the country, but not evenly. The largest gains are projected in the Desert and Semi-Arid zones followed by the Trans-Himalaya , Indo-Gangetic forest belt and the Deccan Peninsula, while the Western Ghats, Northeast, and Himalayan forests also increase, but more modestly. Across India’s forested regions, the study projects that average living forest carbon rises from 7.74 kilograms of carbon per square metre in the historical period to 10.24 under low emissions, 11.76 under medium emissions, and 13.67 under high emissions by the late 21st century. That corresponds to increases of about 35%, 62%, and 97% by 2100. The three futures remain broadly similar until around 2030, then begin to separate, with the divergence becoming clear by about 2050. It also shows that rainfall variability plays a stronger national-scale role than temperature in shaping changes in forest carbon, with rainfall effects often unfolding over several years rather than instantly. Fitha Fathima, lead author of the study said that climate change is not just about rising temperatures – it is silently rewriting every sector, including our forests. “Even where gains appear, they may mask deeper stresses, raising concerns about the stability of today’s dense forests and the risk of releasing large stores of carbon, thereby accelerating emissions. If we undermine our forests today, we risk amplifying emissions tomorrow and weakening long-term environmental resilience,” the researcher said. According to IITM Pune’s climate scientist Prof Koll, India’s forests are not responding to climate change in a uniform way. “Some regions may store more carbon in living biomass, but that does not mean climate change is helping forests. A warmer world is also bringing greater risks from drought, fire, and other disturbances and the study according to researchers shows most clearly that rainfall matters deeply, and that future forest planning must be regional, climate-aware, and rooted in risk prevention,” he said. “Rainfall has the strongest overall influence on changes in forest carbon across India, while temperature has a stronger influence within many individual regions, especially under higher emissions. Rainfall effects appear with a lag of about two years under low and medium emissions, and about four years under high emissions. Temperature shows a more consistent lag of about two years. The paper detects this lag statistically. A likely explanation is that forests do not respond instantly to a single wet or dry year. Water availability can build or weaken across seasons, and woody biomass changes slowly over time,” Pramit Deb Burman from IITM added. According to Rajiv Chaturvedi, BITS Pilani, this is one of the first forest dynamics modelling efforts from India, utilising a second generation Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVMs). “The study generally projects increases in vegetation carbon under different climate change scenarios. However we need to remember that the models in its present form do not include limitations for nutrient availability. Hence this modelling effort needs to be followed up with further modelling Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions.   ... Read More Click here to join Express Pune WhatsApp channel and get a curated list of our stories