Champions League semi-final predictions: Olise to light it up? PSG to retain the trophy?

Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise will be two of the stars of the semi-finals Getty Images Share articleAnd then there were four. The Champions League semi-finals begin tonight, with holders Paris Saint-Germain hosting Bayern Munich at the Parc des Princes. Tomorrow (Wednesday), Premier League leaders Arsenal visit Atletico Madrid as they look to claim their first piece of silverware in Europe’s elite competition. Here, Stuart James, Amy Lawrence, Dermot Corrigan and Conor O’Neill analyse the two ties and make their predictions. Stuart James: I don’t want to upset Arsenal and Atletico fans (obviously that means I’m going to upset Arsenal and Atletico fans), but Bayern Munich vs PSG would be the perfect final on paper. They’re both outstanding teams blessed with an incredible array of attacking talent, and a lot of fun to watch. So, naturally, that’s the semi-final I’m really looking forward to watching. At the same time, Arsenal vs Atletico will be fascinating. Mikel Arteta versus Diego Simeone – good luck to the fourth official. It’s also important to recognise that Atletico have changed. Or, as Dermot put it the other day when writing about Simeone’s tactical evolution, “the old dog has learned some new tricks”. Their last nine games have produced 35 goals. Amy Lawrence: Do you ever get the feeling you are at the wrong event? It’s a classic in football writing, when you attend a borefest while somewhere else that day is a game for the ages. Well, that was familiar in the last round, imagining how many neutrals tuned in to Arsenal’s goalless draw with Sporting CP while Bayern and Real Madrid’s goal-laden rollercoaster took place at the same time. Presumably, a potentially attritional Atletico-Arsenal is not highest on most people’s list for a must-watch and I, too, hope to be entranced on the alternate semi-final days as Bayern and PSG trade scintillating attacks. Honestly, though, I can’t wait to see what two apparently contrasting ties have in store. Dermot Corrigan: Atletico and Arsenal have both been on an emotional rollercoaster over the past few months, and it’s going to be fascinating to see how they react, on and off the pitch, over the two legs. The Simeone vs Arteta battle in particular is going to be fascinating to watch, with both coaches really needing to win a big trophy for their own different reasons. There’s a decent chance it goes right down to the wire in the return leg at the Emirates, and whoever manages the emotional intensity best will likely progress. Conor O’Neill: Bayern-PSG is my answer for, well, all the obvious reasons. They are the competition’s most scintillating attacking forces — Bayern have averaged 4.3 goals per game, with PSG second on 3.9 — and neither side will be cowed by the other into abandoning their front-footed approach. That being said, I don’t think Arsenal-Atletico will be the dull antidote to this sensory overload. Atletico conceded 26 times in the competition, 21 more than Arsenal’s ludicrously low five. They even let Tottenham Hotspur score five times! Corrigan: Every year, it seems to be harder and harder for newer or smaller teams to make a big impression on the tournament, so Bodo/Glimt’s run to the quarter-finals was great to see. The wins against Manchester City and Atletico were unexpected but had the context of coming in the league phase. To then go on to eliminate last year’s beaten finalists Inter in the round of 16 — winning both legs — was tremendous. Bodo/Glimt also played some impressive attacking football and scored some spectacular goals. The dream had to end sometime, but it was great while it lasted. Lawrence: Dermot has rightly bagsied the romantic tale of Bodo/Glimt. Such stuff should barely be possible in the way contemporary football works financially, so it is immensely reassuring that it can happen. A bonus mention to Kazakhstani side Kairat’s fans celebrating goals at Inter and Arsenal. They are 156th in the UEFA coefficient rankings, with teams such as Lincoln Red Imps of Gibraltar and the Faroe Islands’ Klaksvik in close company. One of my least favourite things was the number of English clubs in the competition. Even if that did not last too long once the knockout rounds started, European football is at its best when not too heavily weighted with teams from the same country. James: I’ve found watching Champions League football this season a refreshing change from the Premier League — and I don’t remember feeling like that in the past. Champions League games have been more open, there’s not so much of an emphasis on set pieces and physicality, and the football has been more entertaining as a result. The Bodo/Glimt story was fantastic, especially for someone with a mother who is half-Norwegian and, at the grand age of 83, wanted their shirt. But I guess one of the standout moments would have to be the final day of the league phase and watching the Benfica goalkeeper Antatoliy Trubin go up for an all-or-nothing last-minute free kick against Real Madrid, and score with a superb header. Brilliant. O’Neill: Trubin’s goal. The Ukrainian goalkeeper’s towering, stoppage-time header against Real Madrid sent his side through to the knockout stage in the most preposterous fashion imaginable. The group stage might be bloated, but the drama of the last round of games is undeniable. James: That’s a tricky question, mindful that there are 144 games in the league phase alone. The match I enjoyed watching most was the first leg of the Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich quarter-final. Forty shots in 90 minutes — insane. It was a wonderfully open game, and Bayern were brilliant — better than the 2-1 scoreline suggests, with Michael Olise tormenting left-back Alvaro Carreras to such an extent that it reminded me of that famous Sir Alex Ferguson quote about Ryan Giggs, when the former Manchester United manager said: “Ryan can leave the best defenders with twisted blood.” Corrigan: The Bayern-Madrid return game was hard to beat for excitement, but I’d argue the technical and tactical quality was actually higher in both legs of the Barcelona vs Atletico quarter-final. Simeone and his team working out how to combat Hansi Flick’s extremely high defensive line was incredibly entertaining, and the tension was palpable — right down to the final whistle in the second leg at the Metropolitano. O’Neill: Both legs of Bayern’s quarter-final win against Madrid were spectacular, but the second just edges it. The seven goals in that 4-3 thriller contained a healthy mix of goalkeeping howlers and sublime finishes, with Olise’s stoppage-time strike a strong contender for goal of the tournament. The red card for Eduardo Camavinga — and good old-fashioned Madrid tantrum at full-time — further ramped up the drama. Lawrence: It was hard to take your eyes off the Atletico-Barca quarter-final. It was such a high-calibre tie, played at a level of blood-spilling intensity that was breathtaking. James: There will be some serious individual talent on show in these semi-finals. There’s so much to enjoy about PSG wingers Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Ousmane Dembele — the way they combined for the opening goal in the second leg of the quarter-final at Anfield was beautiful. Vitinha and Joao Neves, too (don’t worry, I’m not going to go through the whole PSG team). I don’t think I truly appreciated Atletico striker Julian Alvarez’s talent at Manchester City, and maybe Manchester City didn’t either. Anyway, I’m going for Olise, who moves as gracefully as any footballer I’ve seen for a long time. And what a nightmare he is for any opponent when he comes inside on that beautiful left foot. Corrigan: Alvarez’s up-and-down season has mirrored his team’s campaign so far. He looked completely off form in La Liga through much of the autumn, but keeps showing up with big goals in the biggest cup games. The Argentina international followed superb goals against Tottenham and Barcelona in the Champions League with another cracker in the recent Copa del Rey final against Real Sociedad — although he then missed a penalty as Atletico lost the shootout, as he did, controversially, when they lost to Real Madrid in last year’s Champions League round of 16. If Atletico are to go on and finally win a first European Cup, some more moments of Alvarez magic (and better luck from the penalty spot) will likely be crucial. Lawrence: In all likelihood, the standout player will emerge from the Bayern-PSG tie. Olise has enjoyed an eye-catching season, and his brand of artistry gives something special to Bayern. He has established his playmaking credentials with France as well as the German champions this season, and his groove gives him every chance to enhance his reputation further in the coming weeks. O’Neill: Kvaratskhelia. The Georgian is mesmerising to watch, playing with a carefree abandon and off-the-cuff flair that is so out of kilter with the meticulously prescribed nature of modern football. PSG-Bayern will be a breathless affair, and whoever keeps their composure amid the chaos will win the day. Kvaratskhelia’s nonchalant swagger remains undimmed when the lights are brightest, as his quarter-final goal against Liverpool showed. That ability to shrug off pressure in big moments might just swing a knife-edge tie in PSG’s favour. James: There’s a kid at Arsenal who’s trying to work out how John Steinbeck presents the character of Curley’s wife in Of Mice and Men for his English literature exam, in between helping the club he joined as a four-year-old win the Premier League and Champions League. Aged 16, Max Dowman’s story is extraordinary. He made an appearance in both legs of the quarter-final against Sporting, so there’s no reason to think he won’t feature in the semi-finals at some point. It’s not normal. Not even close to being normal. Lawrence: A first glance at Lennart Karl in the group stages demonstrated his precocious excellence. The 18-year-old is Bayern’s youngest goalscorer in the competition and plays with a fearless ambition, which his coach Vincent Kompany has been very comfortable to promote. His dribbling ability, clever movement and smart left foot are a great combination. A right thigh strain has kept him out recently, and he will not be back in time for the first leg, but he could yet define the second. O’Neill: At 21, Aleksandar Pavlovic has established himself as Bayern Munich’s midfield lynchpin, yet still feels under the radar. That’s partly down to his unflashy game style — he is there to keep Bayern’s engine purring, with only PSG’s Vitinha having completed more passes per 90 in this season’s Champions League. Dictating the tempo for an elite side usually takes years to develop, which is testament to Pavlovic’s mature game intelligence. He even popped up with a rare goal in the quarter-final, scoring Bayern’s first in their second-leg victory against Madrid. Corrigan: Atletico signed Marc Pubill for €16million ($19m; £14m at current exchange rates) from Almeria last summer, without being truly sure where to use the young defender. The 22-year-old had mostly played right-back previously, but Simeone tried him in the middle of the back four during an injury crisis and he has built an impressive partnership with fellow summer arrival David Hancko. The Spain Under-21 international has the technical qualities to start moves from the back, and the physical capacity to cover a lot of space and allow Atletico to push up the pitch. The Arsenal tie might show us whether Pubill can also dig in and defend for his life when needed. James: I make no apologies for being unable to answer this question with any confidence or conviction — both games are so hard to call. Madrid surprised me by pushing Bayern so hard in the second leg of their quarter-final — I didn’t anticipate that at all after the first leg, and it’s something I highlight now because it makes me wonder what PSG might do against Kompany’s side. But will PSG be as hungry as Bayern after winning the trophy last season? I also wonder whether Bayern can have some joy exploiting the space that opens up behind those marauding (running all over the pitch in the case of Achraf Hakimi) full-backs. I’ll say PSG will edge it against Bayern and retain the trophy. The beaten finalists? Arsenal. Corrigan: Arsenal hammered Atletico 4-0 in the league phase in October, when Arteta’s team were flying and Simeone’s side were struggling. The way both teams’ seasons have turned around in recent months suggests Atletico might find a way to get through. Bayern’s rotating cast of forwards ripped Real Madrid to pieces at times in their quarter-final, but a really disorganised Madrid were still able to make enough chances to keep the tie open right up until the final moments. PSG have not yet reached the level they showed when winning the competition last year, but they have not had to. Luis Enrique’s side have been able to ease their way into the season until now, and my hunch would be they keep improving through beating Bayern and then Atletico to retain the trophy. O’Neill: Arsenal should overwhelm Atletico over two legs. That 4-0 win against Atletico in the league phase was telling, even if Arteta’s side have been unconvincing of late. But the same criticism can be levelled at Atletico, who are fourth in La Liga after four defeats in their last five games. Alvarez aside, it is hard to make a case for any of their players getting into Arsenal’s team, and the gap in quality across the pitch is pretty stark. The other tie is a coin toss, but I’m going to lean towards Bayern, based only on their greater consistency across the season. PSG looked undercooked when they finished 11th in the league phase, but have developed an ominous knack for peaking when it matters most. As for the final, I am backing Arsenal to finally go all the way. These games are usually tetchy affairs, and no side is better at grinding out unglamorous, narrow victories. Lawrence: It has always looked like one side of the draw is tougher than the other, and with that in mind, the winner of Bayern-PSG must be favourites to defeat whoever comes through from Arsenal-Atletico. Before Arsenal’s springtime blip, it was hard to ignore a nagging hunch that they might get to a final and be far too weary and stretched and lose to Bayern. Which probably means it will be PSG-Atletico. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms