Carolina Hurricanes vs. Philadelphia Flyers 2026 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs preview

AtlanticBruinsCanadiensLightningMaple LeafsPanthersRed WingsSabresSenatorsMetropolitanBlue JacketsCapitalsDevilsFlyersHurricanesIslandersPenguinsRangersCentralAvalancheBlackhawksBluesJetsMammothPredatorsStarsWildPacificCanucksDucksFlamesGolden KnightsKingsKrakenOilersSharksScores & ScheduleStandingsPodcastsFantasyNHL OddsNHL PicksPlayoff bracketStanley Cup tiersNHL Draft rankingRed Light NewsletterNHL Playoffs The Flyers have shown high-end defensive ability and some added offensive pop, but Carolina offers too much in both departments to be treated as anything but a serious favorite. Emilee Chinn / Getty Images Share articleBeating their cross-state rivals — a similarly surprising playoff team — is one thing. Beating the team that has essentially run the Metropolitan Division for the past half-decade is a much tougher task. In a season defined by defying the odds, a seven-game series against the Carolina Hurricanes poses arguably the toughest challenge yet for the upstart Philadelphia Flyers. Can Rick Tocchet and company defy the odds once more? To the surprise of no one, the Flyers enter this series as significant underdogs. That’s to be expected for a team that few expected to make the playoffs, facing off against a perennial powerhouse. It should be obvious to anyone that this is going to be an uphill battle for Philadelphia. The Hurricanes are several steps above the Penguins team the Flyers just dispatched in six. More importantly, the Flyers are arguably a few rungs below the Senators team that Carolina had zero trouble with in a sweep. All of those point to what should be a short series, though that depends on how much magic the Flyers still have up their sleeves. Twenty-six percent isn’t much, but it’s not zero, either. It’s also much higher than the chances Philadelphia had to even make the playoffs coming out of the Olympic break. Defying the odds was a motivator against Pittsburgh, but Carolina may be too steep a hill to climb. The Flyers and Hurricanes are both powerhouses in their own zones, with just five total goals between their Defensive Ratings. Shutdown defense has always been a hallmark of the Canes’ system. Carolina was the best shot suppressor of the regular season at five-on-five and ranked top-10 in expected goals against. The Senators actually tested that with some quality looks in the first round, but strong netminding kept them quiet on the scoresheet. The Flyers’ stingy defense helped fuel their push to the playoffs. The team allowed more shots than Carolina in the regular season, but did a better job limiting the danger of those chances. That carried into the playoffs thanks to their 1-1-3 neutral zone setup that really limited the Penguins’ ability to enter the zone with control. Those defensive strengths trickle into short-handed situations, where both teams play a disruptive style. So this series will come down to who can contain their opponent best — and one side of the matchup has the edge on paper. As much as the Flyers improved down the stretch, their attack doesn’t hold a candle to Carolina’s, as indicated by a near 50-goal difference in Offensive Rating. Carolina is a relentless team that creates waves of scoring chances at five-on-five. While the Canes still need to work on converting on those chances, their 3.48 xG per 60 in the first round crushed the Senators. Philadelphia’s offense was a lot more muted across six games, at just 2.11 xG per 60. To the Flyers’ credit, they did a lot more with a little and scored at a higher pace at five-on-five. Have the Hurricanes found their contender-caliber second line? Playing Logan Stankoven between Taylor Hall and Jackson Blake is nothing new for the Hurricanes, and neither is that trio finding real success in their minutes. In the regular season, only Carolina’s no-questions-asked top line of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis saw more time together than Hall-Stankoven Blake’s 551 minutes, and league-wide, only three other non-Canes combos saw more minutes. With them on the ice at five-on-five, Carolina outscored opponents 35-25 for expected and actual goal rates of about 60 percent, beating out Svechnikov-Aho-Jarvis in both categories and, in expected goals, finishing first among the 26 lines league-wide with at least 350 minutes played together. Good as that was, they leveled up a bit against Ottawa. In about 47 minutes with Hall-Stankoven-Blake on the ice spread over four games, Carolina outscored the Senators 3-0 and controlled a mammoth 76 percent of the expected goal share. Stankoven and Hall each scored twice, and Blake added a goal and two assists. Their play was doubly important, given that the Hurricanes got a quiet series from the top line — for that trio at five-on-five, only Aho logged a point. The second line’s production may not have been surprising, but it was certainly necessary, and the sort of second-layer goal scoring that Carolina has too often lacked in recent postseasons. Stankoven, in some respects, popped the most against Ottawa. He’d taken some degree of criticism dating back to Carolina’s acquisition of him at the 2025 trade deadline as part of the return on Mikko Rantanen, and after a slow start after moving to the middle at for 2025-26, he’d seen the Hurricanes linked in trade hypotheticals to other more proven second-line centers such as Vincent Trocheck, a former Hurricane himself. At the Olympic break, Stankoven was producing 1.64 points per 60 at five-on-five — respectable, but not outstanding. After the NHL resumed its season, he dialed things up to 2.14 points per 60 with unsurprisingly strong underlying numbers. “Who’s their 2C?” has been a valid question in Carolina since Trocheck left town in 2022, and Stankoven is showing himself to be a reasonable answer. Not for nothing, the two produced at nearly identical five-on-five rates over the course of the regular season (1.71 points per 60 for Stankoven, 1.69 for Trocheck). Stankoven didn’t lead the Hurricanes there, though, and neither did Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis or Nikolaj Ehlers. It was Hall at 2.22 points per 60. That’s a big bump from what he managed after Carolina acquired him last season (1.68) and his best overall since 2021-22. Blake, meanwhile, continued to show that the Hurricanes signing him to a contract through 2034 at a $5.18 salary cap hit was a solid bit of business. Blake scored 22 goals and 31 assists in his second NHL season, both improvements on 2025-26, and has the look of a reliable, long-term play driver. At some point, Carolina will need Aho, Jarvis and Svechnikov to dial things up, in terms of puck possession and point production, but in the meantime, they’re better equipped to handle themselves at other spots in the lineup. Can Matvei Michkov break through as the gamebreaker he was advertised to be? On the goal that eliminated the Pittsburgh Penguins, after 77 minutes of hockey in Game 6, it was Michkov setting things up. After Noah Cates won the faceoff back to Cam York, York moved the puck to Michkov, who evaded Penguins center Ben Kindel and sent the puck back to York for the series-winner. For him, that’s not a bad way to come back from a healthy scratch — and for the Flyers, given how little they had generated offensively in nearly five full periods, it was a nice reminder of what Michkov can add to the mix. Whether that leads to more opportunities for Michkov, and whether he seizes them, remains to be seen. He averaged about 11:30 in five games against Pittsburgh and looked strongest in Game 6, taking three shots on Artūrs Šilovs and nearly getting a goal or two himself. Michkov/Cates/Alex Bump seems like something Rick Tocchet would stick with, but given the overall situation, who knows? It’s a fair bet, though, that in what will be a grind-it-out series, the Flyers will need a pop of skill, especially given the strides Carolina has made in that department. Disappointing as Michkov’s regular season may have been, he still produced 1.98 points per 60, a tick more than Zegras and third on the team among regulars. That’d also rank third on the Hurricanes. There are two ways to look at the fact that only Hall and Sebastian Aho outpaced Michkov’s five-on-five scoring rate: There isn’t enough oomph at the top of Carolina’s roster, or it’s just a by-committee approach that spreads the offensive wealth. The Hurricanes, like the Flyers, aren’t led by an MVP-caliber forward. Aho is a jack-of-all-trades two-way center. Jarvis, on the other hand, embodies Hurricanes hockey; he leads all forwards in this series with a plus-3.0 Defensive Rating. Svechnikov rounds out that line as a scoring-chance generator and strong playmaker coming off one of his best regular seasons. Carolina got by in the first orunddespite that trio only combining for one five-on-five point in four games. Aho, at least, had special teams contributions, and Svechnikov’s controlled breakouts were a real plus. But ultimately, despite winning their minutes below the surface against the Tim Stützle line, they were outscored 1-0. The Stankoven line made up for it. The third line of Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal and Nikolaj Ehlers chipped in, too. When the Canes’ forecheck attempts were broken up by Ottawa, Ehlers’ puck-moving and transition game came in clutch. While he only ended the series with a point, he did lead all Hurricanes in scoring chance contributions. That ability to create despite his playoff reputation is something to build on moving forward. Having him limited to a third-line role isn’t a perfect system, but he complements Staal and Martinook, and ensures each line has some versatility. On the back end, Jaccob Slavin is Carolina’s ace on the first pair, with a series-high plus-6.3 Defensive Rating. His first round may not have been perfect, but he has a long track record of elite shutdown play. Behind him, the second pair of K’Andre Miller and Sean Walker made a real impact, too, with a lot of puck retrievals and controlled breakouts to get the Canes out of danger. If Alexander Nikishin is good to go after sustaining a concussion in Game 4 (and Brind’Amour is hopeful he will be ready), the Canes’ depth on the back end should be a real strength, too. Nikishin’s physicality and defensive zone puck touches are the perfect complement to Shayne Gostisbehere’s offensive spark. The two earned a 62 percent xG rate and outscored the Senators 2-1. But maybe Carolina’s most important player against the Senators was an unexpected one: Frederik Andersen. Goaltending was the Canes’ big question heading into the playoffs. Rookie Brandon Bussi’s progress this year went off the rails post-Olympics. Pyotr Kochetkov was a less-than-ideal choice, too. Instead, it’s been Andersen, who was pretty underwhelming in 35 regular-season appearances. And he has absolutely run with the starter’s net, giving his team a chance to win with a quality start each game, a .955 save percentage, and a league-leading GSAx of 7.7 through four games. In the opposite net, Dan Vladar has been The Guy for the Flyers. He’s not a perfect No.1 by any means, but has been a stabilizer in Philadelphia, throughout this team’s playoff push and into the opening round. He earned a 0.936 save percentage and a GSAx of 5.7 through six games. Now he has to try and maintain that against an aggressive Canes team. At least he should have defensive support. Travis Sanheim and Rasmus Ristolainen take on the toughest matchups in Philadelphia. Despite that usage, they earned a 54 percent xG rate in the regular season. Their numbers were less sparkling in Round 1, but being served a heavy dose of Sidney Crosby had something to do with it. The Flyers outchanced Pittsburgh in that matchup and outscored them 2-0. Cam York’s plus-3.5 Defensive Rating adds some oomph to the second pair with Jamie Drysdale. That duo had its moments against Pittsburgh — like the series-clinching goal from York — but has to level up on both ends of the ice to keep up with the Canes. Up front, Noah Cates adds another element of shutdown play to the fold. So do disruptors such as Tyson Foerster and Sean Couturier in fourth-line capacities. That should help Philly match up to the Canes’ two-way talent, but it’s going to take a lot more offense to really stack up. Cates, at least, has upped his scoring. Denver Barkey and Alex Bump both added some secondary scoring, too. But the real burden falls on the shoulders of the Flyers’ top six. Travis Konency and Christian Dvorak pulled their weight against the Penguins. After upping their two-way play down the stretch, this duo outplayed Pittsburgh with a 56 percent xG rate and outscored them 5-1 at five-on-five. Porter Martone kept the magic alive from his NHL debut with some clutch plays, a lot of poise, and a ton of shots — 14.2 attempts per 60, which was second to only Owen Tippett. Tippett had his chances in Round 1, without any five-on-five scoring to show for it. Trevor Zegras set up some chances, too. But it was clear who was the passer and the shooter, making their combination a little too predictable. That won’t cut it in this series; the Flyers need more out of this line to compete with the Canes’ depth. Jaccob Slavin vs. Travis Sanheim Slavin remains the gold standard for defensive defensemen in the NHL. This season, he had the league’s best Defensive Rating per 82, the result of allowing just 2.24 xGA/60, 0.33 fewer relative to his teammates with a similar impact on goals against. Doing that against the toughest opponents on a nightly basis is no small feat. Sanheim isn’t cut from the same cloth, but he is growing into one of the league’s most dependable defenders in a similar vein. Same tough minutes, slightly more expected goals against (2.30 per 60), but with a tad more offense. His growth this season as a legit top-level guy has been underrated and is a big reason for the Flyers’ success; he was terrific in the first round with just 2.04 xGA/60. The difference: Defense is Philadelphia’s singular path to success, meaning any chance for victory runs through Sanheim having a monster series. The Hurricanes have a lot more avenues outside of having the better shutdown option to begin with. The Flyers have shown high-end defensive ability and, down the stretch, some added offensive pop, but Carolina offers too much in both departments to be treated as anything but a serious favorite. If this one goes long, it’ll probably be because the Hurricanes go cold and the Flyers maximize whatever chances they grind out. Understanding projection uncertainty  All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms