Cancer warning as rising tide of obesity could finally be levelling off, research shows

The rising tide of obesity in Britain could be levelling off, according to new research. Global analysis presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul found rising obesity rates in high-income countries is slowing amid hopes weight loss jabs could help turn the tide. The review by Imperial College London looked at more than four decades of health data from 200 countries and territories, covering the period from 1980 to 2024. It suggests the global obesity crisis could be tapering off and even be reversing in some countries such as France, Italy and Portugal. It comes as separate research shows piling on the pounds in adulthood raises the risk of cancer up to five-fold even among those who were slim in their teens. Professor Majid Ezzati, lead researcher for the levelling off study, said it challenged "the widely accepted view that we’re experiencing a global epidemic of obesity”. He said: "When we take it all together, the results that we see... it's been just about flat… it has been completely flattened.” The data suggests the plateau for UK obesity rates in girls occurred around the year 2000, with the same happening in boys slightly later, but before 2005. For women and men, obesity rates are still rising but are slowing down. Experts said it is too soon to say this was a result of weight loss jabs and it could be due to better health awareness, particular among the more wealthy. Compared to a lot of Western European countries, Prof Ezzati said: “Even though the UK has plateauing or slowing down obesity, it's still at a much higher prevalence level than a lot of European countries." The review, also published in the journal Nature, included UK data from the National Child Measurement Programme data for England plus the Health Survey for England, funded by the Department of Health. Dr Marie Spreckley, research programme manager at Cambridge University, said: “For the UK, the findings suggest that obesity prevalence may be stabilising, but at a relatively high level compared with many other high-income countries. "This should not be interpreted as evidence that the problem has been solved. A plateau at high prevalence still represents a substantial burden for individuals, healthcare systems and society." Separate research looking at obesity and cancer risk in 600,000 Swedish adults who were weighed repeatedly over four decades found there is no safe age to pile on the pounds. Researchers said avoiding sudden weight gain over a period of a few years is crucial if people want to keep their risk of the disease low. Experts from Lund University showed risk was particularly high for liver and colon cancer among men, with those who became obese before the age of 30 at a five-times higher risk of liver cancer, a doubled risk of pancreatic cancer and kidney cancer, and a 58% increased risk of colon cancer. Women who developed obesity before the age of 30 were at a 4.5 times increased risk of endometrial cancer, a 67% higher risk of pancreatic cancer, double the risk of kidney cancer, and at 76% higher risk of meningioma. Associate Professor Anton Nilsson, the study’s author, said: ‘Weight gain after age 30 was strongly associated with postmenopausal breast cancer, whereas weight gain prior to age 30 was less strongly so. “A possible explanation for this is that weight gain in the years closer to menopause increases exposure to a hormonal environment that promotes cancers related to female sex hormones, such as breast cancer. “In men, obesity-related cancers such as liver cancer were instead more strongly associated with weight gain prior to age 45, perhaps because earlier weight gain allows more time for biological processes such as inflammation and raised insulin levels to act on susceptible tissues. Overall, our results emphasise the importance of policies to avoid weight gain throughout adulthood.”