Budgets on the brink: Australians stare down a nerve-shredding fortnight as war-fuelled price surge continues

By SARAH BROOKES - SENIOR REPORTER, AUSTRALIA Published: 01:57, 26 April 2026 | Updated: 01:58, 26 April 2026 Australians face a tense two weeks, with experts warning there will be a perfect storm of fresh inflation and interest rate figures colliding with the Federal Budget while conflict in the Middle East rumbles on. The next Australian Consumer Price Index figures on inflation, covering March, are scheduled to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on April 30. They are swiftly followed by the next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision on May 5, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers' fifth federal budget on May 12. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver has issued a stark warning, predicting a sharp 1.5 per cent increase in monthly inflation. 'We are going to see a spike,' he told the Daily Mail on Saturday.  He predicts that fuel prices jumping by around 30 per cent in March could add more than a full percentage point to inflation, lifting it past 5 per cent year-on-year and forcing the RBA to raise rates. 'It seems that it is not just higher fuel prices and fuel levies that are on the way up, but everything from airfares to toilets,' he said. '(But) it was welcome news to see the Federal Government moving to rein in the rapid growth in spending on the NDIS.  Already battered families are bracing for another brutal hit, with economists warning the cost-of-living crisis is set to worsen considerably (stock image) Economist Shane Oliver (pictured) said that not only fuel prices are on the rise, but also  everything from airfares to toilets 'Government spending has been a major reason behind Australia's cost of living and inflation problem and the blowout in spending on the NDIS has been part of that.' Oliver has cautioned that inflation risks are not just coming from within Australia, adding that there is still a 'significant risk' the Iran War could re-escalate if agreement on a deal is not reached soon. 'Trump's demeaning and humiliating social media posts may also be encouraging Iran to dig in,' he said. 'The key thing to watch remains the Strait of Hormuz and, despite a brief spike in ship traffic a week ago, it remains effectively closed. 'While a bout of mild stagflation is baked in, the clock is now ticking on whether this turns into a more severe bout like that seen in the 1970s.' The 1970s fuel crisis consisted of two major supply shocks: In 1973, an embargo was issued by Arab oil producers on Western nations supporting Israel during the Yom Kippur War. A second crisis in 1979 was prompted by the Iranian Revolution.  Treasurer Jim Chalmers faces pressure to provide genuine relief to Australians in the May 12 Federal Budget, balancing spending restraint and the need to avoid stoking further inflation.  Chalmers has stated that it will be an 'ambitious' budget, prioritising intergenerational equity and tackling NDIS expenditure. Treasurer Jim Chalmers (pictured) faces a delicate balancing act: providing meaningful relief in the Federal Budget while curbing spending 'There'll be tax reform, there'll be a productivity push, and there will be savings,' Chalmers told reporters last week. 'Cutting compliance costs is a big focus of the government and a big focus of the budget as well. 'It won't have every single idea that's been pitched to us over the last 12 months or so, but it will be ambitious in its breadth and in its depth as well.' Despite households calling for support to help with the rising cost-of-living, Mr Oliver warned the government against announcing short‑term populist measures.  'Some sort of cost-of-living relief to deal with the impact of the war looks likely,' he said. 'Any cost-of-living relief or economic stimulus should be modest and targeted to those who really need it - such as low income earners and businesses with high energy cost exposure that could fold. 'The pandemic stimulus was timely, but not well targeted, and was arguably more than needed, which contributed to the inflation problem we had when the economy reopened.' No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.