Bruno Guimaraes is Newcastle's talisman. These numbers show how irreplaceable he's become

AFC BournemouthArsenalAston VillaBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBurnleyChelseaCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamLeeds UnitedLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenham HotspurWest Ham UnitedWolverhampton WanderersScores & ScheduleStandingsFantasyThe Athletic FC NewsletterPodcastsBruno Guimaraes is Newcastle’s talisman. These numbers show how irreplaceable he’s become Stu Forster Share articleAsk those inside Newcastle United to outline the extent of Bruno Guimaraes’ importance and they will habitually beam. It is an almost unconscious reaction. As one person who has worked with Guimaraes, speaking anonymously to protect relationships, puts it, “Everyone talks about xG (expected goals), but for Bruno they should create xS: expected smiles.” Off the field, but even more importantly on it, they believe Guimaraes’ mere presence lifts his team-mates, simultaneously providing a confidence boost and a relaxing effect. Rather than being a reductive way of summarising Guimaraes’ magnetism, this encapsulates precisely how universal his influence is. Trying to single out what Guimaraes’ most significant trait is — his line-breaking passes, the chances he creates, his ability to win fouls under pressure, his press-resistance in possession and the goals he has added this season — would diminish what one dressing-room insider describes as his “genuine aura”. Heading into the summer, the 28-year-old has been linked with a potential exit, and this may be his last opportunity to secure a big move should he wish to. Yet, while the potential sales of Anthony Gordon and even Sandro Tonali are being treated with sober consideration, the prospect of losing Guimaraes is not something Eddie Howe or Newcastle want to entertain. Instead, contract talks are expected to ramp up, given his present deal expires in 2028. The Brighton victory marked Guimaraes’ 150th Premier League appearance for Newcastle, and his enduring prominence was evident once again, with the Brazilian’s vision and execution sending Jacob Murphy in behind to lay on the opener, before the captain’s corner was nodded in by Dan Burn for a second. Afterwards, Guimaraes declared that 13th-placed Newcastle’s objective for the final three games of the season had to remain European qualification. He is a leader, a winner and Newcastle’s top scorer in the league. Guimaraes is Newcastle’s talisman — one who is easily taken for granted, quite simply because he invariably delivers. During pre-season in 2022, only six months after Guimaraes’ arrival from Lyon, a dressing-room source described the midfielder as “a borderline cheat code”. It would be disparaging towards Guimaraes’ team-mates and to Howe to state that has proven to be the case, but the Brazil midfielder has unquestionably been integral to everything Newcastle have achieved post-takeover. He is vital to the way Howe’s team play — Newcastle’s own internal analysis and the data which is publicly available confirm it. Too much can be inferred from statistics which show how a team perform with and without a specific player, but such comparisons have been made throughout Guimaraes’ Tyneside tenure because of Newcastle’s struggles when he is not in the XI. Newcastle failed to win any of the first 14 top-flight games Guimaraes did not start following his full debut in March 2022, when he announced himself to the Premier League with a sublime bottom-of-the-foot flicked goal. Four years on and at the 15th attempt, Newcastle did overcome Manchester United in March, while another victory against Chelsea followed, but it is still only two wins from 19 when Guimaraes has not started. Compared to the 142 matches in which the Brazilian has been on the teamsheet, Newcastle’s win percentage (52.8 per cent to 10.5 per cent), average goals for (1.9 to 0.9) and points per game (1.8 to 0.6) all decrease significantly when he is not in the XI (albeit from a far smaller sample size). Extend that across all competitions, and Newcastle have won just six of the 25 games Guimaraes has missed since February 2022. Five of those have come in the last 14 outings, too, with the FA Cup triumph over Aston Villa in January and the two Champions League victories over Qarabag adding to the top-flight wins over Manchester United and Chelsea. Newcastle’s downturn in league form preceded Guimaraes’ springtime absence, but the midfielder being unavailable for six straight top-flight matches definitely exacerbated their slide. As Howe told reporters following Newcastle’s 3-1 victory over Brighton: “We missed Bruno’s qualities. The responsibility he takes, demanding the ball, and the tactical flexibility he gives us, and his will to win.” That willingness to take possession, no matter how closely marked he is, sets Guimaraes apart from his team-mates. As the graphic using SkillCorner data below shows, over the past three seasons, Guimaraes has not only played significantly more passes when under high pressure than his Newcastle team-mates, but he actually ranks highly compared with midfielders across Europe’s ‘top-five’ leagues — and he is making more on average across 2025-26 than during the previous two campaigns. Beyond his press-resistant passing, Guimaraes is also masterful at winning fouls — many of them ‘soft’ and a significant proportion deep inside his own half, usually at critical moments to relieve pressure. The 2.5 fouls per 90 minutes that Guimaraes has won, on average, in the league this season, is the highest in Newcastle’s squad. Since his full debut, Guimaraes has been fouled on 395 occasions in the league — more than 100 ahead of Aston Villa’s John McGinn, who is second. Certainly, Guimaraes can never be accused of hiding on the pitch. If anything, he can occasionally be over-eager to receive possession — as if he feels obligated to be the ‘hero’, the player who will rescue a game. Partly that is because he so often is the player who can provide match-defining moments. Guimaraes is the creative spark and, without him, Newcastle revert to whipping balls into the box and have little threat through the middle. As the graphic below shows, Guimaraes has attempted 16.1 line-breaking passes per 100 passes this season, which is the highest in the Newcastle squad. Critically, that is also 3.6 per 100 more than any other midfielder (and even Lewis Miley’s 12.5 per 100 has been skewed by his stint at right-back), showing how reliant Newcastle are on Guimaraes providing ingenuity from the engine room. Beyond the line-breaking passes, Guimaraes is also their main chance creator, providing five assists from an expected assists of 4.16 in the Premier League, both the highest in the squad. He has created the most opportunities for his team-mates with 42, which is 12 more than Tonali in second, and averages 1.7 chances created per 90 minutes. Guimaraes also leads the open-play chances created, too, with 27, four clear of Gordon in second, and averaging 1.2 per 90. Without Guimaraes, Newcastle lack invention, especially outside of set pieces (though he has provided two assists and created 12 chances from dead-ball situations, which is more than anyone else in the squad, showing how consistent his delivery from corners has been). This season, Guimaraes has also rediscovered the goal-scoring touch that pleasantly surprised Newcastle staff during his first half-season. In 17 games, Guimaraes scored five league goals in 2021-22. He did not get close to matching that 0.43 goals per 90 return in any of the next three seasons, in part because he played as a No 6 for two of those campaigns and part of the third. Yet, if the goals did not initially return once he was shifted back to No 8 in December 2024, Guimaraes has really rediscovered his scoring proficiency in 2025-26 — whether when deployed as a No 8, or even when he has been used deeper. Guimaraes is Newcastle’s top scorer in the Premier League with nine goals, which highlights their centre-forward issues — Nick Woltemade is second with seven, but has failed to score in the league in 2026 — yet also shows the clinical edge he has added. The Brazilian is particularly effective in front of his own fans, with eight of his goals coming at St James’ Park, alongside four assists. Of the 14 league goals he has scored over the past two seasons, 12 have come on Tyneside. Guimaraes’ game-changing interventions at St James’ are only becoming more frequent, too. In his last 11 league home appearances, he has provided 11 goal contributions (seven goals and four assists), which is five clear of Woltemade in second. His 14 combined goals and assists represent his second-best league haul for Newcastle, given he managed 15 (seven goals and eight assists) in 2023-24. Though on a per-90 basis, Guimaraes’ goal contributions are at their highest ever at 0.57 (up from 0.41 in 2023-24). In each of the past three seasons, Guimaraes has both scored and assisted five or more league goals. Only Mohamed Salah, Bruno Fernandes and Jarrod Bowen have matched that feat, underlining the exalted company he is in. These are the metrics which can be measured, but so much of what Guimaraes provides to Newcastle is unquantifiable. The intangible elements — his connection with supporters, his emotional intelligence, his insatiable will to win, his leadership and the huge impact he has upon his team-mates — are almost impossible to calculate. What is incontrovertible, however, is how indispensable Guimaraes is for Howe and Newcastle. The Brazilian’s influence is immense and, if anything, is only growing. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms