BJP outperformed most exit polls to get two-thirds majority in Bengal, but one pollster got figures right

E-PaperSubscribeSubscribeEnjoy unlimited accessSubscribe Now! Get features like The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Monday defied expectations and exit poll projections to get a massive lead in Bengal, a state where the party never formed a government in its history. File photo of BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee. (PTI)The BJP maintained a lead in 192 seats, while Mamata Banerjee's party got 95 seats, as of the Election Commission trends at 2:30 pm. The Congress, CPI(M) and AISF are leading on one seat each. While the exit poll turned true this time, the BJP outperformed their projections leading with over two-third majority. A majority of pollsters had given a narrow lead to the saffron camp. Mamata, meanwhile, cautioned party workers not to leave counting venues even as she said: "Do not lose hearts, we will win after sundown." The exit poll projections released April 29 onwards gave a narrow lead to the BJP against Mamata, who was eyeing a fourth term. But the pollsters failed to gauge the massive support for the saffron camp. One of the possible reasons behind the conservative figure of the pollsters may had to do with the 2021 projections. In 2021, a majority of pollsters gave mandate to the BJP, however, the TMC got a huge mandate in the state, defying most of the projections. In 2026, a majority of pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, Poll diary, Today's Chanakya and JVC predicted a victory for the BJP. On the other hand, Peoples Pulse and Janmat Polls gave mandate to Mamata Banerjee's TMC. While, Matrize gave 146-161 seats to the BJP, P-Marq gave the party 150-175 seats, Poll Diary 142-171 and JVC 138-159. Axis My India, which released the figures for Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, chose to skip the projections for Bengal. However, the closest projection to the actual figures was from Today's Chanakya, which predicted 192 seats for the BJP and 100 for the TMC. The projections from Poll Diary was the closest to the actual figures for TMC as it predicted between 99-152 seats for the TMC. Like every other election in Bengal, the assembly polls has again turned out to be full of surprises and upsets. While the TMC, projected to give a touch fight for the BJP, struggles to touch 100-seat figure. Mamata has however alleged that the counting has been stopped in several seats where TMC is leading. She said that the outcome will reverse after sunset. In 2021, while the TMC won 213 seats, the BJP was restricted to 77. But the party supremo, Mamata, lost Nandigram to Suvendu. This time, Suvendu is leading in Nandigram, but trailing against Mamata in Bhabanipur. Polling in Bengal was conducted in two phases: the first phase being held in 152 seats on April 23 and the second phase in 142 seats tomorrow. Majid Alam is a Chief Content Producer working at Hindustan Times, based in New Delhi. He currently heads shifts at online desk and manages homepage apart from writing, editing and curating articles. With over six years of experience in journalism, Majid has navigated national, politics and international news. His work primarily focuses on the politics of the Hindi heartland, government policies, and South Asia. He also writes on US and Europe’s policies vis-à-vis India. Before joining Hindustan Times, Majid worked at ABP LIVE as the Chief Copy Editor and at News18, where he managed the World and Explainers sections. His articles have featured in Dialogue Earth, The Quint, BMJ, The Diplomat, and Outlook India. Majid has a keen interest in the use of data for storytelling. Majid holds a Masters in Convergent Journalism from Jamia Millia Islamia. He was awarded the Erasmus+ scholarship to study International Affairs at Sciences Po, Paris in 2020. He is also part of the OCEANS Network, an alumni network of Erasmus+ exchange scholars. He is currently serving as the National Representative (India) at the OCEANS Network. Apart from journalism, Majid has a flair for academic writing and loves to teach. He has published a book chapter: 'Bombay Cinema and Postmodernism' in the book: 'Handbook of Research on Social and Cultural Dynamics in Indian Cinema.' He was also part of the OCEANS Network delegation to Hanoi National University of Education in Vietnam in 2025. He has also given guest lecture in digital journalism at AJK MCRC, Jamia Millia Islamia.Read More