Biggest steals and riskiest reaches from NFL Draft first round

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For your clients and yourself. If you’re an attorney working in-house (i.e. for a company), you’ll often need to hire external counsel to help with certain matters. Bringing on a big, name-brand and ridiculously expensive firm is the safe strategy. You’ll never be fired for hiring them, even if they are incompetent and cheaper options existed. The NFL Draft equivalent: following consensus boards. You’ll never draw fire by drafting a universally projected top pick like Fernando Mendoza at No. 1, as the Raiders did last night (inside story on that here). But you sure do when you use the No. 13 pick on Ty Simpson, the 36th-ranked prospect, as Rams general manager Les Snead did last night. More on that below, where I evaluate the biggest steals and risks of the 2026 NFL draft’s first round. This article is from The Athletic’s NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox. (And if this isn’t the best post-draft NFL newsletter you’ve ever read, let me know in the comments section. That’s the bar we set here. I read every comment.) Before I share the biggest discounts (and overpays), based on pre-draft composite rankings, I made a promise to you yesterday: If a reader made a bold prediction that came true, I’d call them a genius. Plenty wrote in. Many expected Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love to fall. Someone said “Raiders draft Giannis.” Only one (!!) was correct, partially. Jeff T. expected the Bears to trade up to No. 15 and draft Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman. They didn’t have to, as he fell to them at No. 25. So while Jeff T. perhaps didn’t quite go full Einstein on us, he still deserves kudos. (Jeff T., if you’re reading this, I’ll give you another shot. Who do the Bears take tonight? Readers, can Jeff T. go 4/4? Input your predictions here.) Thieneman was one of the best values of Day 1, falling eight spots below his pre-draft ranking. A+ for the Bears. Here are the other best values so far: The excitement is in the NFC East, where the Cowboys added Ohio State safety Caleb Downs and the Eagles took the guy who could be their A.J. Brown replacement, USC’s Makai Lemon. Downs is a great fit for Dallas. It might even be the best fit of the first round, as our film guru Ted Nguyen suggested. Downs will work under defensive coordinator Christian Parker, a Vic Fangio disciple who saw this defense elevate with a similarly versatile Cooper DeJean. (It wasn’t the only good news for the Cowboys, as we learned that George Pickens plans to sign and play under the franchise tag this season. Good vibes in a Dallas offseason? I look forward to seeing how Jerry Jones messes this up.) As for Philadelphia, the Eagles got even better value. When my colleague Mike Sando polled execs about Lemon at the combine, one suggested he could go No. 5 to the Giants. But the Eagles traded up to No. 20 for their latest draft-day steal, getting him six spots below his consensus No. 14 ranking. However … the move wasn’t universally applauded. Shouldn’t they have been looking for offensive line help? As Brooks Kubena notes in his story on the Lemon pick, the Eagles could have three vacancies on their line to fill at this time next year. Then there’s the scheme fit. It’s not ideal. Ted raised an important point in our post-draft roundtable: “Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts doesn’t throw to the intermediate middle of the field, where Lemon thrives.” A bit concerning. As for the first round’s non-steals: Maybe you weren’t surprised — and to be clear, I don’t mind the pick — but I was genuinely shocked the Super Bowl-favorite Rams declined an opportunity to strengthen their win-now roster in order to add a developmental backup quarterback in Ty Simpson. This tells us a few things. First, 2026 is probably Matthew Stafford’s last season. Second, Simpson is the draft’s biggest winner, and it’s not close. Jeff Howe spoke to league execs, who universally applauded the fit, actually. Here’s Jeff: “Long before the draft began, coaches and team executives loved the idea of pairing Simpson with Rams coach Sean McVay, and it’s clear the league’s most brilliant offensive mind agreed. “Simpson is considered a high-end processor who deftly identifies coverages before the snap, and the 23-year-old has efficient footwork and accuracy to command a West Coast system.” Lastly, it suggests that the off-field concerns about Puka Nacua are unlikely to keep him out of the lineup. If that’s incorrect, McVay and Snead will surely regret passing on several receivers at No. 13. Simpson wasn’t the first round’s only risk. He wasn’t even the biggest reach, at least according to groupthink. That honor goes to the Texans’ Keylan Rutledge, a Georgia Tech guard they traded up to draft 27 spots before the consensus. Whoever signed off on those choices stuck their necks out for their guys. Respect. There were plenty of safer options they could have gone with, though. Let’s talk about the best remaining options. After Mendoza and Simpson, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier was this class’ highest-ranking quarterback. His potential landing spots include the Cardinals at No. 34 or Jets at No. 44, where our Day 2 mock has him. That is the Jets’ only selection tonight, as they dealt the No. 33 pick and a fifth-rounder to trade up for Indiana receiver Omar Cooper Jr. He was their third pick in the first round, joining No. 2 David Bailey (Texas Tech edge) and No. 16 Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon tight end) as part of a promising nucleus. Who’s up for grabs in that No. 33 spot, now held by the 49ers? A list of the best players available: Again, “The Athletic Football Show” will be live tonight, starting at 6:30 p.m. ET. I was watching when the Seahawks drafted the other Notre Dame running back, Jadarian Price, at No. 32. Winning a Super Bowl sure has its perks. 📓 Post-draft roundtable. Linking again here, because our experts gathered to unpack the first round, and you can impress your friends by pretending you thought of these things. Dane’s “The Beast” draft guide, free for anyone to read in The Athletic app. 📫 Enjoyed this read? Sign up here to receive The Athletic’s free NFL newsletter in your inbox.  Also, check out our other newsletters. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms