Arsenal vs Manchester City: Premier League title race – what the numbers say ahead of matchweek 35

AFC BournemouthArsenalAston VillaBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBurnleyChelseaCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamLeeds UnitedLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenham HotspurWest Ham UnitedWolverhampton WanderersScores & ScheduleStandingsFantasyThe Athletic FC NewsletterPodcastsA Tale of Two Semi-FinalsKeith Andrews ExclusiveVAR Controversy in MadridPL Title Race Arsenal host Fulham on Saturday before title rivals Manchester City visit Everton on Monday Getty Images Share articleWelcome back to The Athletic’s title-race tracker, where our data and tactics writers analyse the key trends behind the two-horse race as Arsenal and Manchester City fight to be the 2025-26 Premier League champions. With City in FA Cup semi-final action — beating Southampton 2-1 — Arsenal were the only title contenders in league action last weekend. Mikel Arteta’s side ground out a 1-0 home win over Newcastle to return to the top of the table. City still hover ominously, with a game in hand to play, in a race that looks set to go down to the wire in the final round of fixtures on Sunday, May 24. With the help of Opta’s supercomputer, The Athletic looks to answer the impossible question: who will cross the line first? Not much, aside from Arsenal’s aforementioned win against Newcastle. Before kick-off in that one on Saturday evening, Arsenal fans might have viewed a home fixture against a 14th-placed Newcastle side who had lost their previous three league games as a prime opportunity to not only win but beef up their goal difference, which was level with City’s at +37. In the end, an unconvincing performance meant that quickly became an afterthought. The three points were the priority, and a nervy Emirates crowd breathed a collective sigh of relief at the full-time whistle. Arsenal started strongly, with Eberechi Eze scoring in the ninth minute, which was surprisingly their first goal inside the opening 10 minutes of a home league match all season. It came via a familiar route — their 17th goal from a corner in the current campaign — but this one was far removed from the usual muscular routines devised by their set-piece coach Nicolas Jover. Rather than their usual inswinger towards one of their towering centre-backs, Noni Madueke played a low pass to Kai Havertz on the near side of the Newcastle box. Havertz turned and flicked it to Eze at the edge of the area, who curled home a spectacular finish. Eze’s goal was their third short corner within the first 10 minutes of the match, and their final total of four for the day was more than in any other game this season, underlining their commitment to this set-piece variation. The rest of their open-play performance was less convincing than Eze’s emphatic strike, with Arsenal generating just 0.49 expected goals to Newcastle’s 1.0, and they can consider themselves fortunate that Yoane Wissa blazed a presentable chance over the crossbar in the 79th minute. Nervous, tight encounters are part and parcel of any title race, and having cleverly choreographed set-piece routines you can fall back on is no bad thing. Given Arsenal were the only ones to play a Premier League game since the previous one of these articles, it is tricky to reliably assess any shift in momentum. What is noteworthy is how much energy has been sapped from each respective squad from other competitions. Pep Guardiola heavily rotated his side for Manchester City’s FA Cup semi-final with Championship side Southampton on Saturday evening, bringing fresh faces into the starting XI and resting some of his key players for the final stretch of the league season. City were dominant at Wembley throughout, if not a little disjointed in attack — meaning Guardiola was forced to bring on Jeremy Doku, Savinho, Erling Haaland, Nico O’Reilly and Bernardo Silva in the second half to get them over the line and into next month’s final against Chelsea. “(In) The last weeks (where I’ll be) playing regularly the same team, we need the squad. We need all of them. Being better or worse doesn’t matter, we will need it,” Guardiola said after the semi-final. “With this amount of games, (starting) every three days with the same players will not be possible.” That statement became particularly pertinent, given City’s subsequent frustrations to learn they will have three games in seven days from May 13 to 19 as part of the rescheduled fixture list. For Arsenal, a challenging trip to the Metropolitano stadium for the first leg of their Champions League semi-final with Atletico Madrid on Wednesday will have taken it out of Mikel Arteta’s squad, making Saturday evening’s home game against Fulham that bit trickier. If Arsenal do progress to the final following Tuesday’s second leg, there will be a natural mindset shift for each of the squad to ensure they are fit for a potentially career-defining meeting with Bayern Munich or Paris Saint-Germain in the Hungarian city of Budapest on May 30. Will that influence their intensity in the last three Premier League fixtures? It is an impossible question to answer, but Arteta’s task will be to maintain the fitness and form of each squad member until the very last whistle of their league finale away to Crystal Palace. There is simply no room for slip-ups in their final five — potentially six — games across two competitions. When it comes to fixtures, Arsenal hold the upper hand, at least on paper. Based on the average Opta Power Ranking of their remaining opponents, no Premier League side have an easier run-in. Tenth-placed Fulham this weekend are the highest-ranked side they will face in their last four games. That is all well and good in theory, but the looming spectre of relegation often means those teams near the bottom of the table find another gear at this stage of a season. This is what makes their trip across London to face West Ham United on Sunday, May 10, a more daunting prospect. West Ham have the seventh-best points-per-game rate in the league since the turn of the year, with coach Nuno Espirito Santo inspiring an uptick in form as they fight for their Premier League lives. On the other hand, that final-day trip to Selhurst Park might sound tricky, but if Palace progress to the final of the UEFA Conference League, their Premier League clash with Arteta and company will come three days before they play that match in Leipzig, Germany. City also play the south Londoners in their rescheduled game-in-hand, which was finally confirmed this week for Wednesday, May 13 — three days before the FA Cup final. Guardiola’s side face daunting trips to European-chasing Everton and Bournemouth either side of that meeting with Chelsea at Wembley. Rounding out City’s season is a home match against Aston Villa. On paper, they are their toughest remaining opponents, but there is a decent chance Villa will have already achieved their objective of qualifying for the 2026-27 Champions League by then, leaving the game with little riding on it beyond pride for Unai Emery’s side. Villa could also be four days removed from winning (or at minimum playing in) the Europa League final, with all the emotion and celebrations/painful disappointment that would entail. The ominous factor for Arsenal to consider is that City historically finish seasons strongly. They tend to do so in title-winning campaigns, but they also readdressed the balance excellently last year to end up in third place after their form had dropped off a cliff in the winter months. Do not expect Guardiola’s side to give you an inch. A convincing run of form to end a season is what they do. Despite City’s reputation as elite title-race closers, Opta’s Supercomputer still favours Arsenal. They are given a 70.8 per cent chance of ending their 22-year title drought, which is down from the 97 per cent at the start of April but up from the 65 per cent right before last weekend’s win against Newcastle. This preference for Arsenal is largely down to their easier run-in. Opta’s model does not factor in intangibles such as opposition motivation or title-race jitters. Viewed game by game and focusing solely on opponent quality, it is understandable that a statistical model leans towards them rather than City. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms