Arsenal vs Manchester City: Premier League title race – what numbers say after cup clash

AFC BournemouthArsenalAston VillaBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBurnleyChelseaCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamLeeds UnitedLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenham HotspurWest Ham UnitedWolverhampton WanderersScores & ScheduleStandingsFantasyThe Athletic FC NewsletterPodcastsArsenal vs Manchester City: Premier League title race – what numbers say after cup clashHaaland runs with the ball under pressure from Ben White and William Saliba Julian Finney/Getty Images Share full articleWelcome back to The Athletic’s title-race tracker, where our data and tactics writers take a look at the key trends behind an enthralling battle for the Premier League crown. The race has been on hold for both clubs recently, with almost a month since their previous league games. Back then, Arsenal extended their lead to nine points, although City still have a game in hand. In that time, City beat Arsenal 2-0 in the League Cup final, while Arsenal also crashed out of the FA Cup, losing 2-1 to Championship side Southampton. Could those psychological setbacks carry into league form and start to erode the commanding position of Mikel Arteta’s side? With the help of Opta’s Supercomputer, The Athletic assesses how the title picture is shaping up as the Premier League enters its final, decisive stretch. Looking strictly at the league table, and ignoring any potential side-effects from cup exploits, Arsenal gained two more points on City for a second successive gameweek. At one stage, it looked as though the Premier League pendulum might swing in City’s favour, with Arsenal struggling to break down a stubborn Everton defence as the clock ticked towards stoppage time. But a star turn from 16-year-old Max Dowman rescued all three points for Arsenal. First, his neat build-up play helped set up Viktor Gyokeres’ 89th-minute opener, before Dowman sealed the 2-0 win by racing clear and scoring into an empty net after Everton had committed everyone forward for a late corner. City played later that evening away to West Ham, now tasked with keeping pace with Arsenal rather than closing the gap. They failed to do so, drawing 1-1 at the London Stadium. Pep Guardiola’s decision to use wide forward Antoine Semenyo ahead of Rayan Cherki in the playmaker role looked like a misstep, particularly against an opposition intent on sitting deep. Still, he will feel his side were unfortunate, outshooting West Ham by 24 shots to one. On recent evidence, you would have to say City. They have scored six and conceded none against Arsenal and Liverpool since their Champions League exit at the hands of Real Madrid, and look to have rediscovered a nice balance in attack with Cherki restored to the starting XI, playing between Semenyo and Jeremy Doku on the wings. The recovery pace and duel-winning capabilities of Abdukodir Khusanov allows City to keep a high line, while Marc Guehi’s composure and adventure on the ball helps City to push on down the left flank. That brings Nico O’Reilly into play, whose unique blend of technicality, athleticism and eye for goal means he can pick up dangerous positions across the final third. As we can see from his touchmaps below, the 21-year-old is happy to drift inside to help City overload defences, while his ability to time runs into the box makes him a threat from cutbacks and crosses, taking 10 shots from inside the penalty area across his past six games. That said, this title race does not hinge on current form. Arsenal’s buffer at the top means they can still hold on to their lead even if City win all of their remaining games. Though they lacked inspiration against City at Wembley and looked shaky in their cup exit to Southampton, a solid 1-0 away win in the Champions League at Sporting CP suggests Arteta’s side still possess the mental fortitude to control games and grind out the necessary points. City’s win over Arsenal in the cup final was a cagey tactical affair, characterised by Guardiola’s decision to defend in a 4-2-4 shape, much like Erik ten Hag had done against him back in 2023 in the FA Cup. The difference, however, is that City allowed Arsenal’s centre-backs to have the ball, and were not aggressive in their initial press, instead focusing on blocking passes into Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi in midfield. Further back, Rodri and Bernardo Silva were on hand should the ball find its way through the line of four, while full-backs O’Reilly and Matheus Nunes were prepared to jump up and apply pressure if the ball went wide. The game plan largely nullified Arsenal’s build-up, with neither centre-back prepared to take the risk and fizz the ball through. Arteta’s side were also lacking movement from more advanced players, and were reluctant to drop wingers or tuck full-backs into midfield to attempt to pull the City shape around. Stand-in goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga also struggled with his distribution. In the example below, he holds on to possession for 18 seconds after a goal kick, before eventually going long into Kai Havertz, who loses the aerial duel. While David Raya is undoubtedly more incisive with his feet, there is still great risk in trying to clip the ball into midfield or out to the full-backs; should Arsenal lose it, there are four City players up the pitch waiting to counter quickly. Bournemouth is the immediate priority, but Arteta will be working away at a plan to circumvent City’s 4-2-4 in the back of his mind. Arsenal will be painfully aware that no Premier League side can be underestimated, having thrown away a two-goal lead in a 2-2 draw at bottom club Wolves in February. That said, their next five fixtures look more favourable on paper than City’s, based on the average Opta Power Rating of their opponents. First up, Arsenal host 13th-placed Bournemouth, while City travel to Champions League-chasing Chelsea. A trip to Stamford Bridge is the tougher game, but Bournemouth’s intensity under Andoni Iraola can unsettle any opponent, as Arsenal discovered in a hard-fought 3-2 win away to them in January. Bournemouth have struggled on the road though, recording just three wins this season away from the Vitality Stadium. After this weekend comes the crunch head-to-head clash at the Etihad, where Arsenal have not won since a 2-0 victory in 2015. Both teams then face similarly difficult schedules. Arsenal look forward to Newcastle (H), Fulham (H) and West Ham (A), while City round out their next five with Burnley (A), Everton (A) and Brentford (H). Once title nerves set in, each of these fixtures will become a stern test, regardless of how straightforward some might seem. After Arsenal gained ground on City in the previous round of fixtures, Opta have increased their title-winning chances further. Before that set of games, it stood at 93.5 per cent. Now the supercomputer deems it even more of a formality at 97.3 per cent. The odds are overwhelmingly in Arsenal’s favour, but models like this do not account for the emotional toll of a title race, instead treating every fixture the same and predicting matches purely on differences in team strength. As seasoned Premier League viewers know, this mental pressure can quickly shift the course of a title race, turning apparent coronations into dramatic collapses. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms