Andy Burnham starts race 20 points ahead of where Labour would usually be but Makerfield is 'tailor-made' for Reform to do well, say pollsters

By CLAIRE ELLICOTT, WHITEHALL EDITOR and JAMES TAPSFIELD, UK POLITICAL EDITOR Published: 22:28, 19 May 2026 | Updated: 22:37, 19 May 2026 Andy Burnham received a boost to his campaign to win the Makerfield by-election as polling put him 20 points ahead of his party. The Greater Manchester Mayor became Labour's official candidate as it emerged that he enjoys a considerable advantage over his party. It puts him narrowly ahead at the start of the race but in a seat that pollsters More in Common warned was 'tailor-made' for Reform. The Manchester politician released a slick video on Twitter in which he blamed Margaret Thatcher for Britain's woes and vowed to reverse her legacy. Filming outside the school he sent his children to – to a soundtrack of Manchester bands Oasis and Elbow – he made his pitch to run the country. In a criticism of Sir Keir Starmer, Mr Burnham said he was the candidate to 'change Labour' and called for a 'new path for Britain'. He also described the by-election as 'the most consequential of our lives' and said he did not 'take anything for granted'. Mr Burnham is expected to launch a leadership challenge against Sir Keir if he wins the seat but it is likely to be a close-run fight with Reform. Andy Burnham starts race 20 points ahead of where Labour would usually be but Makerfield is 'tailor-made' for Reform to do well, say pollsters  Reform's candidate and local plumber Robert Kenyon also featured in a similarly slick but hyper-local video in which he pitched the by-election fight as 'David v Goliath'. With no mention of leader Nigel Farage – indicating the campaign will be focused on Mr Kenyon as a local candidate – he criticised career politicians like Mr Burnham. He said that for Mr Burnham, Makerfield would be a 'stepping stone' whereas he intended to be a 'local champion'. Mr Kenyon was selected by Reform after contesting the seat for the party in 2024 while Mr Burnham is believed to have been the only person shortlisted for selection for Labour. It came after More in Common's Luke Tryl said that Mr Burnham outperformed his party by 20 points in a seat 'tailor-made' for Reform. He said the mayor's popularity meant he started the race 'narrowly ahead' but added that 'anything could happen' during the campaign. The campaign 'could matter a lot', he said, with Mr Burnham's handling of a 'change message' likely to prove vital. He said: 'Andy Burnham definitely wants it to be Andy Burnham versus Reform. If it's Labour versus Reform, Reform win.' Mr Burnham outperformed Labour nationally by 63.4per cent to 42.8per cent while in Wigan – in which Makerfield is situated – he outpolled the party by 66.1per cent to 42.8per cent. Following his selection, the mayor made his pitch to be prime minister, saying he wanted to reduce everyday costs and make life affordable again. He described his political views as: 'Manchesterism is the end of neoliberalism, the end of trickle-down economics that has left out places like Makerfield. 'Make no mistake, that means a new path for Britain.' Mr Burnham has also sought to downplay his previous calls to rejoin the EU – saying last year that it was something he would like to see in his lifetime. He has made two U-turns already, saying he is no longer pushing for Britain to go back into the EU and that he will stick to fiscal rules. Two-thirds of Makerfield voters backed Brexit and Reform plans to print Mr Burnham's previous comments about rejoining the EU on its election leaflets. Speaking at the Labour Party conference last September, Mr Burnham said he wanted to rejoin the EU, adding: 'Long term, I'll be honest, I'm going to say it, I want to rejoin.' But he has since reversed his position, saying he 'respected' the referendum result. 'My view is that Brexit has been damaging, but I also believe the last thing we should do right now is re-run those arguments,' he said on Monday. 'I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU.' Allies of Mr Burnham have accused leadership rival Wes Streeting of trying to damage his by-election chances by reviving Labour's debate about Brexit. Mr Streeting described the decision to leave the EU as a 'catastrophic mistake' and said he would campaign to rejoin after the next election. Labour sources said Mr Streeting will continue to press the case for rejoining in the coming weeks, as the idea is backed by almost nine out of ten Labour members. Mr Burnham has also backtracked on his previous comments on the bond markets which took fright at signals he would go on a borrowing binge. Last year, he said Labour had to 'get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets', after he set out his agenda to nationalise public services. But his officials have since insisted he would stand by the fiscal rules set out by Chancellor Ms Reeves to avoid further spooking the financial markets. He is likely to face a fierce fight from Reform along the lines of his Brexit views, but also the fact he was not born in Makerfield, though he is from nearby. Mr Kenyon, who was born in the constituency and won 31.8per cent of the vote in 2024, said: 'Makerfield has never had a member of Parliament who was actually born in Makerfield. 'This will be a tough fight but I am going to give this contest my best shot.' No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. 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