Analysing Chelsea's run-in: Could Rosenior's side miss out on Europe altogether?

AFC BournemouthArsenalAston VillaBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBurnleyChelseaCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamLeeds UnitedLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenham HotspurWest Ham UnitedWolverhampton WanderersScores & ScheduleStandingsFantasyThe Athletic FC NewsletterPodcastsAnalysisAnalysing Chelsea’s run-in: Could Rosenior’s side miss out on Europe altogether?Liam Rosenior and his Chelsea face an awkward run-in Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images Share articleIt is not just Chelsea’s Champions League hopes hanging in the balance as they enter the final six games of the season. Despite the European coefficient meaning there will be at least five Premier League teams in the Champions League next season, poor form has left Chelsea in a precarious position to secure a place in any of UEFA’s three competitions via their league placing. Liam Rosenior’s side are currently sixth, meaning they would enter the Europa League. But only one point separates them from Everton in eighth place. Finish there and they could fail to qualify for the third-tier Conference League, which they won under Enzo Maresca in 2025. Momentum is not on Chelsea’s side. They have lost their past three Premier League games without scoring and, ahead of Saturday’s visit of Manchester United, have won only one of their past seven league games. However, some of their competitors for European football also face tough run-ins, and they do not have the possible back-door route of the FA Cup. How do the final fixtures line up for Chelsea and their myriad competitors for European places — and should they be more concerned about the pack hunting them than chasing down those in front? The fixture calendar has not been kind. Chelsea’s domestic season recommenced after the international break with a 3-0 defeat by title-chasing Manchester City, a result which has put Champions League qualification out of their own hands. Trailing fifth place by four points, Chelsea need Liverpool to slip up even if they took maximum points from their final six games. The major challenge is that all six of their opponents still have a great deal to play for, and Chelsea are not showing the resilience needed for the physical, intense games those circumstances create. They face two direct competitors for Champions League football in Manchester United (in third place, on Saturday), and Liverpool (fifth, May 9). Relegation candidates Nottingham Forest (16th, May 4) and Tottenham Hotspur (18th, May 17) will both visit Stamford Bridge. They will travel to Brighton & Hove Albion (ninth, April 21) and Sunderland (10th, May 24), who are currently two points behind them and also chasing Europe. Spurs and Forest at home, based on form, should be Chelsea’s best chance of picking up six points. Forest’s victory over Porto means their trip to Chelsea now comes between the two legs of a Europa League semi-final against Aston Villa, Forest’s only possible route into Europe next season. That is handy timing for Rosenior’s side. And as for Tottenham: if Chelsea’s players cannot turn up to help relegate their London rivals, when can they? However, the points Chelsea dropped at home against Leeds United and Burnley show the potential for such games to become banana skins — and the relegation battle will inject urgency into their opponents. Chelsea’s win over Liverpool in October was one of the high points of their campaign. Reproducing that at Anfield in May against a stumbling Liverpool, who are now without Hugo Ekitike and have won only one of their past four league games, would be one of their best chances to keep pace in the Champions League race. Manchester United, who have only lost two of their 11 games under Michael Carrick, appear the tougher test — but have only won one of their past 12 league games at Stamford Bridge. Based on form, the opponents Chelsea should be most worried about are not those they are chasing, but those eyeing up a metaphorical target on their backs. Sunderland and Brighton both beat Chelsea early in the season, and will view their games with them as a huge opportunity to take points off a direct rival for European football. Stretching back to January 2022, Chelsea have only won one of their past five visits to the Amex Stadium, drawing one and losing three. Chelsea have a difficult end to the season — but the teams they are chasing have a similar outlook. Liverpool go into the first Merseyside derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium this weekend on the back of a galling European elimination, and confront city rivals who are only outside the European places on goal difference. They travel to Old Trafford and Villa Park either side of Chelsea’s visit — meaning they face three Champions League rivals on the bounce. Finally, Arne Slot’s team host Europe-chasing Brentford, currently seventh, on the final day. Villa’s fixture list is kinder, but still sees them face Liverpool and Manchester City in their final two games. They also have the added distraction of a two-legged Europa League semi-final against Forest and, should they progress, a final in Istanbul. United, as well as hosting Liverpool and Brentford, travel to Brighton on the final day — a bogey team for them in recent years. Villa and Liverpool are in inconsistent form, and Chelsea can drag Manchester United back into the scrap with a victory at Stamford Bridge this weekend. If Rosenior’s side can pull their own weight, there is a very good chance those ahead of them can do them a favour — but that relies on Chelsea finding the consistency of which they have been incapable recently. Chelsea should be less worried about those in front of them pulling away and more about the crowd of clubs snapping at their heels. Comparing Chelsea’s recent form to the four clubs within two points of them demonstrates why. This is how they measure up over their past five Premier League games. The good work Chelsea did in bolstering their goal difference earlier in the season provides some reassurance — but even taking that into account, the table is so congested that defeat against Manchester United on Saturday would allow four teams the chance to leapfrog them. Brentford are closest to Chelsea in the table, but are showing signs of flagging. Four consecutive league draws have left them clinging to a would-be Conference League place on goal difference and the fixture calendar has thrown up games with Liverpool and both Manchester clubs. However, the way they rallied last year — winning four of their final six games, after only winning one of the six before — shows they are capable of finishing strongly. Everton and Sunderland face two top-five sides, two relegation candidates, each other, and one other team — for Everton that is Crystal Palace and for Sunderland it is Chelsea. If either can maintain momentum and deal a blow to the other, they have a real chance of a European place. The fact Sunderland might have that prize to play for on the final day could set up a challenge for Chelsea. The side who look the most threatening, though, is surely Brighton. They will face two of the bottom three as well as an out-of-sorts Newcastle United, Leeds, and welcome Manchester United on the final day. Most importantly, they can take points off Rosenior’s side directly on Tuesday night. If Chelsea falter, as they look very liable to do at the moment, there are several teams with the form to take their place. All of the above works on the assumption that the teams who place first to fifth will go into the Champions League, sixth place will go into the Europa League, and seventh qualify for the UEFA Conference League. A whole host of permutations could mean these places move slightly. Those most relevant to Chelsea relate to the FA Cup. Winning that, even if they finish below sixth, would earn them Europa League qualification. They play Leeds — against whom they have lost 3-1 and drawn 2-2 this season — in the semi-final on April 26, with the winner facing Manchester City or Southampton in the final. If City lift the FA Cup but finish in the Champions League places, the Premier League’s second Europa League spot would go to the team who finishes seventh instead, and the Conference League spot would go to the team in eighth. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Cerys is a London-based writer covering Chelsea for The Athletic, as well as other London clubs and women's football. She joined The Athletic in summer 2025. Follow Cerys on Twitter @reallycerys