2023 women’s quota law comes into force as NDA lacks numbers: What are the options before govt?

With the NDA short of numbers in Lok Sabha for the passage of Constitution amendment Bills linked to reservation of seats for women in Parliament and state Assemblies, the government, as it weighed its options, issued a notification Thursday evening stating that the 2023 Act providing 33% reservation to women will “come into force” on April 16. There was no official word on why the enforcement of the 2023 law’s provisions was notified in the midst of the Lok Sabha debate on the amended 2026 Bill. The Opposition called it a “desperate attempt” to save the 2023 law if the 2026 Bill with amendments failed to clear the House. The notification issued by the Ministry of Law and Justice in the Gazette of India Thursday evening stated: “In exercise of the powers conferred by sub section (2) of section 1 of the Constitution (One Hundred and Sixth Amendment) Act, 2023, the Central Government hereby appoints the 16th day of April, 2026 as the date on which the provisions of the said Act shall come into force.” The Constitution (One Hundred and Sixth Amendment) Act, 2023, had been notified in the gazette earlier on September 28, 2023, after President Droupadi Murmu gave her assent. “It shall come into force on such date as the Central Government may, by notification in the Official Gazette, appoint,” the earlier notification had stated. On the notification Thursday, Congress MP Manish Tewari told The Indian Express: “It is strange that the Bill which had been gazetted in 2023 September has been re-gazetted after the suspension of Rule 66 which says if a Bill which is contingent on the passage of another Bill in the House fails, then the original Bill or the original Act also become infructuous. By re-notifying it in the gazette after Rule 66 of the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in the Lok Sabha has been suspended, it seems to be a desperate attempt to save the 106th Act in case the 131st Amendment fails to pass muster.” Opposition leaders said the move was an indication of the government’s apprehension over the possibility of the Constitution amendment Bills failing to clear the Lower House. The Bills are expected to be put to vote in Lok Sabha Friday. Rule 66 that deals with motions regarding amendments or passage of the Bills was invoked in Lok Sabha Thursday to facilitate consideration of the three Bills together. The Constitution amendment Bills will need to be cleared by both Houses with a special majority, which means two-thirds of those present and voting, which should not be less than one-half of the total strength of the House. If all MPs are present, the first hurdle will be to garner the two-thirds support. With 540 MPs in Lok Sabha at present — three seats are vacant — this number stands at 360. The NDA’s own strength is 293, which is 67 short of the requirement. Abstentions can bring down the required number, but these have to be very large to plug the gap. Some of the options before the government are: Go ahead with the voting and risk losing. On Thursday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in Lok Sabha that women across the country will watch not just the “nirnay” (decision) but the “neeyat” (intent) of the MPs and any “ill-intention” will not be forgiven by the women. Bring an amendment to address the concerns of the southern states. Arrive at a consensus with the Opposition and agree to send the Bills to a parliamentary committee for a time-bound report. Listing the options before the government, former Lok Sabha secretary general P D T Achary told The Indian Express: “It can choose to send the Bill to a Select Committee for further scrutiny at any time before the voting. The minister can also suggest this in his reply and take the sense of the House for this. This can buy time and enable the government to avoid the embarrassment of a loss.” He said the government could also withdraw the Bill at any time during the debate. Voting at the time of the introduction of the Bills Thursday revealed that the NDA does not have the numbers to pass the Constitution amendment Bills: the Noes had 185 and the Ayes were 251 (out of a total of 436 present). “The four major Opposition parties have all voted against the introduction. Changing positions tomorrow (Friday) may be detrimental to their interest,” said a BJP leader. Another BJP insider conceded that failure to pass the Bill could lead to “bad optics” because the Opposition could then tell people that the government was looking for excuses to derail women’s reservation or alter the proportion of Lok Sabha seats allocated to states. A BJP leader from a southern state questioned the timing given the Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu where the DMK has made delimitation a poll issue. Some other BJP leaders had a different take. They said failure to pass the Bill will go against the Opposition. “Beginning with the West Bengal elections, we will use this as a stick to beat them until 2029,” he said. The BJP has the highest number of Lok Sabha MPs with 240, while the NDA’s tally is 293. The parties that will likely oppose the Bills include the Congress (98 seats), SP (37), TMC (28), DMK (22), Shiv Sena-UBT (9), NCP-SP (8), CPIM (4), RJD (4), IUML (3), AAP (3), JMM (3), VCK (2), CPI (2), CPI (ML) Liberation (2), NC (2), Kerala Congress (1), BAP (1), ASP Kanshi Ram (1), RLP (1), RSP (1), AIMIM (1), MDMK (1) taking the total to 234. The fence-sitters are SAD (1), YSRCP (4), ZPM (1), and Independents (7). “We don’t have the numbers as of now. If there is a change of heart overnight in the Opposition, things could be different on Friday,” a senior BJP leader said. Despite their apprehension about the proposed laws, the BJP’s allies, including the TDP, the JD(U), and the Shiv Sena, are expected to vote in favour of the government, said sources in the NDA. “We do not understand the hurry. We have already taken credit for the women’s Bill. We could have waited for the (Assembly) polling to be over on April 29,” said an MP from a party allied to the BJP. The YSRCP, which has four MPs, has extended conditional support. “If the government assures us in writing that a 50% increase won’t change our state’s proportion (in the House), we will vote for the Bills. Otherwise, we will not,” YSRCP leader Mithun Reddy told The Indian Express. Another leader from a BJP-allied party voiced concern about incorporating the pro-rata basis in the Bill. Government sources have said a list of each state’s new count will be brought in as a “schedule”. “This was an assurance given to us also, along with other parties. The government could have made it a part of the Bill instead of leaving the ambiguity to the Delimitation Commission,” the leader said. Have been in journalism covering national politics for 23 years. Have covered six consecutive Lok Sa... Read More Vikas Pathak is deputy associate editor with The Indian Express and writes on national politics. He ... Read More